A comparative assessment of rheumatoid arthritis burden: trends in China, the US, India, Europe, and globally from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts to 2030 utilizing GBD data

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a pervasive chronic inflammatory condition exerting a substantial impact on global morbidity and mortality. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the epidemiological trends of RA across China, America, India, and Europe as well as at a global level from 1990 to 2021, with forward-looking projections extending to 2030.

Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, a comparative assessment of the age-standardized (AS) incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) for RA was performed. Trends were evaluated and future burdens forecasted using Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.

Between 1990 and 2021, a global upsurge in RA incidence was observed, with India experiencing the most rapid growth and America consistently recording the highest ASIR, albeit with a diminishing increment rate. The prevalence escalated across all regions, with America exhibiting the highest ASPR. Mortality rates generally trended downward, with India registering the highest ASMR by 2021, contrasting with the lowest rates in America and Europe. Disability trends, quantified by ASDR, exhibited relative stability, yet a notable increase was observed in India. ARIMA model-based projections anticipate a continued rise in RA incidence and prevalence by 2030, with mortality and disability rates anticipated to exhibit minor oscillations.

The escalating burden of RA, particularly in developing nations, underscores an urgent need for enhanced healthcare policies focused on early diagnosis, intervention, and disability mitigation. The projections indicate enduring public health challenges attributed to RA in the forthcoming decade.