Background
Use of the EUI category in Russia
Nation | Years | Cause of death (rates per 100,000 residents) | EUI % share of all external causes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All external causes | Non-Transport accident | Suicide | Homicide | EUI | |||
Australia | 2001–2011 | 35.5 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Austria | 2002–2011 | 40.9 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
Belgium | 2003–2009 | 49.5 | 17.9 | 17.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
Canada | 2000–2009 | 39.4 | 15.4 | 10.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.4 |
Czech Republic | 2000–2011 | 54.6 | 25.3 | 13.4 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 6.4 |
Denmark | 2000–2011 | 37.6 | 16.7 | 10.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 5.9 |
Finland | 2000–2011 | 67.0 | 35.3 | 18.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
France | 2000–2009 | 49.5 | 21.5 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
Germany | 2000–2011 | 30.9 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 7.1 |
Hungary | 2000–2011 | 68.9 | 28.7 | 23.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Italy | 2003, 2006–2010 | 28.2 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Netherlands | 2000–2011 | 27.2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
Norway | 2000–2011 | 41.3 | 22.1 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Poland | 2000–2011 | 60.9 | 23.2 | 14.7 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 9.8 |
Romania | 2000–2010 | 59.1 | 27.9 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
Russia | 2000–2011 | 186.2 | 82.2 | 29.1 | 20.8 | 28.0 | 15.1 |
Spain | 2000–2011 | 30.2 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
Sweden | 2000–2010 | 38.7 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 8.0 |
United Kingdom | 2001–2010 | 28.1 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 11.8 |
United States | 2000–2010 | 54.9 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
Our approach to reclassifying death events due to undetermined intent
Methods
Data
Methods
Injury | ICD-10 Code | |
---|---|---|
1 | Fracture of skull and facial bones | S02 |
2 | Intracranial injury | S06 |
3 | Other injuries to the head | S00, S01, S03-S05, S07-S09 |
4 | Injuries to the neck | S10-S19 |
5 | Open wound of thorax | S21 |
6 | Other injuries to the thorax | S20-S29 |
7 | Injuries to the abdomen, lower back, lumbar spine and pelvis | S30-S39 |
8 | Injuries to the limbs | S40-S99 |
9 | Effects of foreign body entering through natural orifice | T15-T19 |
10 | Burns and corrosions | T20-T32 |
11 | Frostbite | T33-T35 |
12 | Poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens] | T40 |
13 | Toxic effect of alcohol | T51 |
14 | Toxic effect of carbon monoxide | T58 |
15 | Other poisoning by drugs, medicaments and biological substances, toxic effects of substances chiefly nonmedicinal as to source | T36-T65 |
16 | Hypothermia and other effects of reduced temperature | T68, T69 |
17 | Asphyxiation | T71 |
18 | Effects of lightning, drowning and nonfatal submersion, vibration, electric current and other specified effects | T75 |
19 | Other injury, poisoning, and consequences of external causes | T00-T14, T66, T67, T70, T72-T74, T76-T98 |
Results
Male | Female | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual cause | Share of agreement | Actual cause | Share of agreement | |||||||
Predicted cause | Non-transport accidents | Suicide | Homicide | Total | Non-transport accidents | Suicide | Homicide | Total | ||
All cases | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 502 | 7 | 2 | 511 | 0.98 | 516 | 7 | 5 | 527 | 0.98 |
Suicide | 23 | 208 | 7 | 237 | 0.87 | 51 | 153 | 22 | 227 | 0.68 |
Homicide | 84 | 25 | 143 | 252 | 0.57 | 79 | 14 | 153 | 246 | 0.62 |
Total | 609 | 239 | 152 | 1000 | 645 | 175 | 180 | 1000 | ||
Share of agreement | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.82 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.5 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 506 | 7 | 2 | 515 | 0.98 | 526 | 5 | 3 | 534 | 0.98 |
Suicide | 22 | 209 | 7 | 238 | 0.88 | 50 | 157 | 22 | 229 | 0.69 |
Homicide | 82 | 23 | 142 | 247 | 0.58 | 71 | 12 | 153 | 237 | 0.65 |
Total | 610 | 239 | 151 | 1000 | 647 | 174 | 179 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.84 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.6 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 516 | 7 | 2 | 524 | 0.98 | 540 | 4 | 3 | 546 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 22 | 214 | 6 | 242 | 0.88 | 45 | 161 | 22 | 228 | 0.71 |
Homicide | 72 | 21 | 140 | 233 | 0.60 | 63 | 10 | 153 | 226 | 0.68 |
Total | 610 | 242 | 148 | 1000 | 647 | 175 | 178 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.85 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.7 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 539 | 5 | 2 | 545 | 0.99 | 567 | 3 | 2 | 573 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 21 | 226 | 7 | 254 | 0.89 | 34 | 163 | 22 | 219 | 0.74 |
Homicide | 53 | 16 | 131 | 201 | 0.65 | 51 | 7 | 149 | 208 | 0.72 |
Total | 613 | 248 | 139 | 1000 | 653 | 173 | 174 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.88 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.75 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 554 | 5 | 2 | 561 | 0.99 | 588 | 3 | 2 | 594 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 21 | 234 | 7 | 262 | 0.89 | 25 | 160 | 21 | 206 | 0.78 |
Homicide | 42 | 14 | 122 | 177 | 0.69 | 46 | 7 | 148 | 200 | 0.74 |
Total | 617 | 252 | 130 | 1000 | 659 | 170 | 172 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.90 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.8 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 575 | 4 | 1 | 581 | 0.99 | 621 | 3 | 2 | 626 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 20 | 243 | 7 | 270 | 0.90 | 17 | 149 | 18 | 184 | 0.81 |
Homicide | 29 | 11 | 109 | 150 | 0.73 | 38 | 6 | 145 | 189 | 0.77 |
Total | 625 | 258 | 117 | 1000 | 676 | 158 | 166 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.92 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.85 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 607 | 3 | 1 | 612 | 0.99 | 696 | 3 | 2 | 701 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 18 | 252 | 6 | 276 | 0.91 | 9 | 108 | 12 | 130 | 0.84 |
Homicide | 16 | 8 | 87 | 112 | 0.78 | 27 | 6 | 136 | 169 | 0.81 |
Total | 642 | 263 | 95 | 1000 | 733 | 117 | 150 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.94 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.9 | ||||||||||
Non-transport accidents | 667 | 3 | 1 | 671 | 0.99 | 843 | 3 | 2 | 848 | 0.99 |
Suicide | 15 | 254 | 5 | 275 | 0.93 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 40 | 0.86 |
Homicide | 5 | 3 | 45 | 54 | 0.84 | 11 | 3 | 98 | 112 | 0.87 |
Total | 687 | 261 | 52 | 1000 | 857 | 40 | 103 | 1000 | ||
Share of correct predictions | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.97 |
Relative error in prediction of the total number of actual cause of events (percent) | Percent of unclassified events of undetermined intent | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Non-transport accidents | Suicide | Homicide | ||
No lower limit | −17 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
ECP ≥ 0.5 | −16 | 5 | 56 | 3 |
ECP ≥ 0.6 | −14 | 5 | 50 | 10 |
ECP ≥ 0.7 | −11 | 6 | 38 | 26 |
ECP ≥ 0.75 | −9 | 6 | 31 | 38 |
ECP ≥ 0.8 | −7 | 6 | 24 | 49 |
ECP ≥ 0.85 | −5 | 6 | 16 | 62 |
ECP ≥ 0.9 | −2 | 5 | 5 | 75 |
Male | Female | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-transport accidents | Suicides | Homicides | Unclassified | Non-transport accidents | Suicides | Homicides | Unclassified | |
No constraint on ECP | 259 | 109 | 632 | 0 | 212 | 191 | 597 | 0 |
ECP ≥ 0.5 | 254 | 106 | 613 | 27 | 193 | 186 | 550 | 70 |
ECP ≥ 0.6 | 242 | 104 | 554 | 101 | 175 | 165 | 495 | 164 |
ECP ≥ 0.7 | 221 | 101 | 419 | 258 | 165 | 133 | 411 | 291 |
ECP > 0.75 | 209 | 100 | 326 | 366 | 160 | 98 | 296 | 447 |
ECP ≥ 0.8 | 194 | 96 | 225 | 485 | 154 | 73 | 291 | 482 |
ECP ≥ 0.85 | 174 | 86 | 130 | 610 | 141 | 37 | 189 | 634 |
ECP ≥ 0.9 | 156 | 66 | 43 | 736 | 124 | 8 | 64 | 803 |
After the population-level adjustment | 476 | 161 | 363 | 0 | 442 | 167 | 391 | 0 |
After proportional redistribution of unclassified EUIs | ||||||||
ECP ≥ 0.5 | 261 | 109 | 630 | - | 208 | 200 | 591 | - |
ECP ≥ 0.6 | 269 | 116 | 616 | - | 209 | 197 | 592 | - |
ECP ≥ 0.7 | 298 | 136 | 565 | - | 233 | 188 | 580 | - |
ECP > 0.75 | 329 | 158 | 513 | - | 289 | 177 | 534 | - |
ECP ≥ 0.8 | 377 | 186 | 437 | - | 297 | 141 | 562 | - |
ECP ≥ 0.85 | 446 | 221 | 333 | - | 385 | 101 | 515 | - |
ECP ≥ 0.9 | 591 | 250 | 163 | - | 629 | 41 | 325 | - |
Known causes | 609 | 239 | 152 | - | 645 | 175 | 180 | - |
Number of deaths (thousand) | SDR per 100,000 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Non-transport accidents | Suicides | Homicides | Unclassified | Total | Non-transport accidents | Suicides | Homicides | Unclassified | |
Actual | 2914 | 1481 | 541 | 379 | 512 | 160 | 82.2 | 29.1 | 20.7 | 28.0 |
ECP ≥ 0.50 | 1605 | 605 | 686 | 18 | 89.0 | 32.5 | 37.6 | 1.0 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.60 | 1598 | 601 | 657 | 58 | 88.6 | 32.3 | 35.9 | 3.2 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.70 | 1589 | 597 | 593 | 136 | 88.1 | 32.1 | 32.4 | 7.4 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.75 | 1583 | 593 | 550 | 188 | 87.8 | 31.9 | 30.1 | 10.3 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.80 | 1576 | 588 | 502 | 248 | 87.4 | 31.6 | 27.4 | 13.6 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.85 | 1567 | 580 | 452 | 315 | 86.9 | 31.2 | 24.7 | 17.3 | ||
ECP ≥ 0.90 | 1558 | 569 | 404 | 384 | 86.4 | 30.6 | 22.0 | 21.0 | ||
After the population level adjustment | 1722 | 624 | 568 | 95.3 | 33.7 | 31.0 |
Male | Female | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
According to vital statistics | Adjusted figures | Initially registered as events of undetermined intent | Proportion of adjusted rate accounted for by reclassification of events of undetermined intent (percent) | According to vital statistics | Adjusted figures | Initially registered as events of undetermined intent | Proportion of adjusted rate accounted for by reclassification of events of undetermined intent (percent) | |
Non-transport accidents | ||||||||
2000 | 152.1 | 174.9 | 22.8 | 13 | 36.3 | 40.7 | 4.4 | 11 |
2001 | 166.6 | 189.6 | 23.0 | 12 | 40.3 | 44.8 | 4.5 | 10 |
2002 | 172.7 | 196.4 | 23.7 | 12 | 42.3 | 47.0 | 4.7 | 10 |
2003 | 174.3 | 198.2 | 23.9 | 12 | 42.3 | 47.3 | 4.9 | 10 |
2004 | 168.1 | 193.2 | 25.1 | 13 | 40.2 | 45.4 | 5.1 | 11 |
2005 | 163.9 | 190.3 | 26.4 | 14 | 38.7 | 43.8 | 5.1 | 12 |
2006 | 145.4 | 169.7 | 24.3 | 14 | 34.7 | 39.4 | 4.7 | 12 |
2007 | 124.0 | 147.3 | 23.4 | 16 | 28.8 | 33.5 | 4.8 | 14 |
2008 | 117.7 | 140.6 | 22.9 | 16 | 27.3 | 31.8 | 4.6 | 14 |
2009 | 106.1 | 127.5 | 21.4 | 17 | 25.8 | 30.3 | 4.5 | 15 |
2010 | 104.7 | 127.1 | 22.4 | 18 | 25.4 | 30.1 | 4.8 | 16 |
2011 | 89.2 | 111.5 | 22.2 | 20 | 21.8 | 26.6 | 4.8 | 18 |
Suicide | ||||||||
2000 | 68.8 | 75.8 | 7.0 | 9 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 14 |
2001 | 69.8 | 77.4 | 7.6 | 10 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 1.7 | 14 |
2002 | 66.8 | 74.5 | 7.6 | 10 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 14 |
2003 | 62.4 | 70.1 | 7.8 | 11 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 16 |
2004 | 59.2 | 67.3 | 8.1 | 12 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 1.8 | 16 |
2005 | 55.1 | 63.8 | 8.7 | 14 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 18 |
2006 | 50.7 | 58.3 | 7.6 | 13 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 1.7 | 18 |
2007 | 48.4 | 56.5 | 8.1 | 14 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 1.8 | 18 |
2008 | 44.9 | 52.8 | 7.9 | 15 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 1.8 | 19 |
2009 | 44.1 | 52.0 | 7.9 | 15 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 20 |
2010 | 39.3 | 47.4 | 8.1 | 17 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 22 |
2011 | 36.5 | 44.9 | 8.4 | 19 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 22 |
Homicide | ||||||||
2000 | 42.4 | 60.7 | 18.3 | 30 | 12.4 | 16.8 | 4.4 | 26 |
2001 | 45.5 | 65.0 | 19.5 | 30 | 13.1 | 17.7 | 4.6 | 26 |
2002 | 47.6 | 68.4 | 20.8 | 30 | 13.0 | 17.8 | 4.8 | 27 |
2003 | 44.4 | 64.8 | 20.5 | 32 | 12.5 | 17.3 | 4.8 | 28 |
2004 | 41.8 | 62.7 | 20.8 | 33 | 11.6 | 16.6 | 4.9 | 30 |
2005 | 37.8 | 59.0 | 21.2 | 36 | 10.6 | 15.5 | 4.8 | 31 |
2006 | 30.6 | 48.7 | 18.1 | 37 | 8.6 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 32 |
2007 | 27.0 | 44.3 | 17.3 | 39 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 36 |
2008 | 25.3 | 42.4 | 17.1 | 40 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 36 |
2009 | 22.6 | 37.6 | 15.0 | 40 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 36 |
2010 | 19.8 | 34.6 | 14.8 | 43 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 39 |
2011 | 18.1 | 33.3 | 15.2 | 46 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 43 |