Background
Methods
Study participants, procedures and measurements
Statistical analysis
Results
Phase 3 (1991–1993) | Phase 5 (1997–1999) | Phase 7 (2002–2004) | Phase 9 (2007–2009) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
N | 7769 | 6105 | 5749 | 5427 |
Men (%) | 69.4 (68.3; 70.4) | 70.9 (69.8; 72.1) | 70.5 (69.3; 71.6) | 70.0 (68.8; 71.2) |
White ethnicity (%) | 90.3 (89.6; 91.0) | 91.8 (91.1; 92.5) | 92.1 (91.3; 92.8) | 91.9 (91.2; 92.6) |
Age (years) | 50.0 (6.0) | 55.6 (6.0) | 60.8 (5.9) | 65.5 (5.8) |
Height (cm) | 171.9 (9.5) | 172.1 (9.2) | 171.0 (9.3) | 170.7 (9.3) |
BMI (kg/m2) | 25.3 (3.7) | 26.1 (3.9) | 26.5 (4.2) | 26.7 (4.4) |
Waist circumference (cm) | 85.7 (11.5) | 90.5 (11.7) | 93.1 (12.1) | 94.5 (12.0) |
Current smokers (%) | 13.0 (12.3; 13.8) | 9.5 (8.8; 10.3) | 7.9 (7.2; 8.6) | 5.5 (4.9; 6.1) |
Moderate to vigorous exercise (hours/week) | 2.0 (1.0; 5.0) | 11.8 (4.8; 20.3) | 11.5 (4.3; 20.0) | – |
Alcohol intake (units/week) | 6.0 (2.0; 14.0) | 9.0 (3.0; 20.0) | 8.0 (3.0; 17.0) | 7.0 (2.0; 15.0) |
Diabetes (%) | 3.0 (2.6; 3.4) | 5.6 (5.1; 6.2) | 8.9 (8.1; 9.6) | 12.8 (11.9; 13.7) |
Medication | ||||
Antihypertensive treatment (%) | 6.7 (6.2; 7.3) | 11.5 (10.7; 12.3) | 21.2 (20.1; 22.3) | 32.7 (31.4; 34.0) |
Lipid-lowering treatment (%) | 0.7 (0.5; 0.9) | 2.5 (2.1; 2.9) | 9.2 (8.5; 10.0) | 29.9 (28.7; 31.1) |
Tricyclic antidepressants (%)a
| 1.9 (1.6; 2.2) | 2.7 (2.3; 3.1) | 2.9 (2.5; 3.4) | 3.5 (3.0; 4.0) |
Diuretics (%) | 6.1 (5.6; 6.7) | 3.0 (2.6; 3.5) | 7.6 (7.0; 8.4) | 10.8 (10.0; 11.7) |
Beta blockers (%) | 0.6 (0.4; 0.8) | 4.7 (4.2; 5.3) | 8.0 (7.3; 8.7) | 7.4 (6.7; 8.1) |
Blood measurements | ||||
Total cholesterol (mmol/l) | 6.5 (1.2) | 5.9 (1.1) | 5.8 (1.0) | 5.3 (1.1) |
HDL cholesterol (mmol(l) | 1.4 (0.4) | 1.5 (0.4) | 1.6 (0.4) | 1.6 (0.5) |
LDL cholesterol (mmol/l) | 4.4 (1.0) | 3.9 (0.9) | 3.6 (0.9) | 3.1 (1.0) |
Triglycerides (mmol/l) | 1.5 (1.1) | 1.4 (0.9) | 1.4 (0.9) | 1.3 (0.7) |
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 120.6 (13.6) | 123.0 (16.5) | 128 (16.8) | 125.7 (16.1) |
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 79.7 (9.4) | 77.5 (10.6) | 74.4 (10.4) | 71.3 (10.2) |
CRP (mg/dl) | 0.9 (0.4; 1.8) | 1.0 (0.5; 2.0) | 1.2 (0.6; 2.4) | – |
IL-6 (pg/ml) | 1.4 (1.0; 2.0) | 1.4 (1.0; 2.0) | 1.7 (1.3; 2.4) | – |
IL-1Ra (pg/ml)b
| 251 (195; 329) | 340 (266; 437) | 347 (271; 458) | 347 (273; 450) |
Adiponectin (µg/ml)b
| 8.5 (6.2; 12.1) | 8.5 (6.2; 12.1) | 8.3 (5.9; 11.9) | 8.4 (5.8; 12.9) |
Heart rate measurements | ||||
Heart rate from ECG (bpm) | 64.7 (10.7) | 67.3 (11.2) | 67.9 (11.6) | 66.5 (11.5) |
SDNN (ms) | – | 34.2 (26.0; 44.8) | 33.7(25.4; 44.7) | 29.8 (22.0; 40.1) |
RMSSD (ms) | – | 20.3 (13.6; 29.4) | 20.5(13.6; 30.2) | 17.5 (11.8; 26.6) |
Low-frequency power (ms2) | – | 309 (1657; 569) | 284 (157; 524) | 222 (113; 439) |
High-frequency power (ms2) | – | 128 (615; 251) | 115(56; 236) | 86 (42; 186) |
LF/HF ratio | – | 2.6 (1.5; 4.1) | 2.6 (1.5; 4.0) | 2.6 (1.6; 4.1) |
Total power (ms2) | – | 1048 (601;1784) | 1004 (568; 1749) | 779 (423; 1411) |
Outcome | Model | hsCRP | IL-6 | IL-1Ra | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | Estimate | p | n | Estimate | p | n | Estimate | p | ||
Heart rate (bpm) | 1 | 13,251 | 0.2 (0.1; 0.3) | < 0.001 | 12,971 | 0.1 (0.0; 0.3) | 0.100 | 7241 | 0.7 (0.4; 1.0) | < 0.001 |
2 | 13,251 | 0.1 (0.0; 0.2) | 0.052 | 12,971 | 0.0 (− 0.2; 0.2) | 0.910 | 7241 | 0.6 (0.3; 1.0) | < 0.001 | |
3 | 13,251 | 0.1 (0.0; 0.2) | 0.108 | 12,971 | 0.0 (− 0.2; 0.1) | 0.696 | 7241 | 0.6 (0.2; 0.9) | 0.002 | |
SDNN (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | 0.1 (− 0.7; 0.9) | 0.796 | 4286 | − 0.3 (− 1.8; 1.3) | 0.731 | 2399 | − 3.2 (− 5.7; − 0.6) | 0.018 |
2 | 4258 | 0.3 (− 0.6; 1.2) | 0.502 | 4286 | − 0.1 (− 1.6; 1.6) | 0.949 | 2399 | − 2.3 (− 5.0; 0.6) | 0.120 | |
3 | 4258 | 0.5 (− 0.4; 1.4) | 0.267 | 4286 | 0.3 (− 1.3; 1.9) | 0.750 | 2399 | − 1.8 (− 4.6; 1.1) | 0.225 | |
RMSSD (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | 0.5 (− 0.6; 1.7) | 0.376 | 4286 | 0.7 (− 1.5; 2.8) | 0.546 | 2399 | − 2.0 (− 5.6; 1.7) | 0.277 |
2 | 4258 | 0.6 (− 0.7; 1.9) | 0.360 | 4286 | 0.8 (− 1.5; 3.0) | 0.513 | 2399 | − 1.1 (− 4.9; 2.9) | 0.580 | |
3 | 4258 | 0.6 (− 0.7; 1.9) | 0.354 | 4286 | 0.7 (− 1.5; 3.0) | 0.529 | 2399 | − 0.9 (− 4.9; 3.1) | 0.644 | |
Low frequency power (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | − 0.9 (− 2.7; 0.9) | 0.342 | 4286 | − 1.8 (− 5.1; 1.6) | 0.299 | 2399 | − 7.1 (− 12.5; − 1.4) | 0.016 |
2 | 4258 | − 0.1 (− 2.1; 1.9) | 0.930 | 4286 | − 0.7 (− 4.2; 2.9) | 0.694 | 2399 | − 3.9 (− 9.8; 2.5) | 0.227 | |
3 | 4258 | 0.5 (− 1.5; 2.5) | 0.645 | 4286 | 0.1 (− 3.4; 3.8) | 0.937 | 2399 | − 2.7 (− 8.8; 3.9) | 0.420 | |
High frequency power (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | 0.6 (− 1.5; 2.7) | 0.588 | 4286 | 1.3 (− 2.5; 5.2) | 0.510 | 2399 | − 5.2 (− 11.3; 1.3) | 0.114 |
2 | 4258 | 1.1 (− 1.2; 3.4) | 0.347 | 4286 | 2.0 (− 2.0; 6.1) | 0.334 | 2399 | − 2.8 (− 9.5; 4.3) | 0.430 | |
3 | 4258 | 1.2 (− 1.1; 3.5) | 0.299 | 4286 | 2.1 (− 1.9; 6.3) | 0.312 | 2399 | − 2.3 (− 9.1; 5.0) | 0.524 | |
LF/HF ratio (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | − 1.4 (− 2.7; − 0.2) | 0.027 | 4286 | − 3.0 (− 5.3; − 0.6) | 0.013 | 2399 | − 1.7 (− 5.8; 2.6) | 0.433 |
2 | 4258 | − 1.2 (− 2.6; 0.2) | 0.099 | 4286 | − 2.6 (− 5.0; − 0.1) | 0.039 | 2399 | − 1.0 (− 5.4; 3.7) | 0.684 | |
3 | 4258 | − 0.7 (− 2.1; 0.7) | 0.314 | 4286 | − 1.8 (− 4.3; 0.7) | 0.152 | 2399 | − 0.3 (− 4.8; 4.5) | 0.913 | |
Total power (% diff) | 1 | 4258 | 0.0 (− 1.6; 1.6) | 0.973 | 4286 | − 0.7 (− 3.7; 2.3) | 0.630 | 2399 | − 6.4 (− 11.3; − 1.3) | 0.015 |
2 | 4258 | 0.5 (− 1.3; 2.3) | 0.596 | 4286 | − 0.1 (− 3.3; 3.1) | 0.939 | 2399 | − 4.2 (− 9.5; 1.4) | 0.142 | |
3 | 4258 | 1.0 (− 0.8; 2.8) | 0.282 | 4286 | 0.7 (− 2.5; 3.9) | 0.690 | 2399 | − 3.2 (− 8.7; 2.6) | 0.274 |
Model | No diabetes | Diabetes | pinteraction
| |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | Estimate | p | n | Estimate | p | |||
Heart rate (bpm) | 1 | 6841 |
− 0.3 (− 0.6; 0.0) |
0.029
| 400 |
− 1.5 (− 2.5; − 0.5) |
0.003
|
0.021
|
2 | 6841 | − 0.2 (− 0.5; 0.1) | 0.119 | 400 |
− 1.4 (− 2.4; − 0.4) |
0.005
|
0.022
| |
3 | 6841 | − 0.2 (− 0.5; 0.2) | 0.313 | 400 |
− 1.3 (− 2.3; − 0.3) |
0.014
|
0.035
| |
SDNN (% diff.) | 1 | 2210 | 1.3 (− 1.1; 3.7) | 0.287 | 189 |
10.1 (2.5; 18.2) |
0.009
|
0.027
|
2 | 2210 | 0.7 (− 1.7; 3.1) | 0.591 | 189 |
9.3 (1.8; 17.4) |
0.015
|
0.028
| |
3 | 2210 | 0.0 (− 2.4; 2.5) | 0.999 | 189 |
8.2 (0.7; 16.3) |
0.032
|
0.036
| |
RMSSD (% diff.) | 1 | 2210 | 0.3 (− 2.9; 3.5) | 0.877 | 189 |
13.3 (2.7; 25.0) |
0.013
|
0.018
|
2 | 2210 | − 0.3 (− 3.6; 3.0) | 0.844 | 189 |
12.5 (2.0; 24.1) |
0.019
|
0.018
| |
3 | 2210 | − 0.7 (− 4.0; 2.7) | 0.680 | 189 |
11.8 (1.2; 23.4) |
0.027
|
0.022
| |
Low frequency power (% diff.) | 1 | 2210 | 3.2 (− 2.1; 8.7) | 0.245 | 189 |
27.5 (8.7; 49.5) |
0.003
|
0.011
|
2 | 2210 | 1.2 (− 4.1; 6.8) | 0.660 | 189 |
24.9 (6.5; 46.5) |
0.006
|
0.012
| |
3 | 2210 | − 0.3 (− 5.7; 5.4) | 0.916 | 189 |
22.5 (4.3; 43.9) |
0.013
|
0.014
| |
All participants | ||||||||
High frequency power (% diff.) | 1 | 2399 | 1.7 (− 3.8; 7.6) | 0.552 | 0.267 | |||
2 | 2399 | 0.1 (− 5.4; 6.1) | 0.960 | 0.303 | ||||
3 | 2399 | − 1.2 (− 6.9; 4.9) | 0.696 | 0.119 | ||||
LF/HF ratio (% diff.) | 1 | 2399 | 3.2 (− 0.5; 7.0) | 0.090 | 0.319 | |||
2 | 2399 | 2.9 (− 0.8; 6.8) | 0.130 | 0.314 | ||||
3 | 2399 | 2.7 (− 1.2; 6.8) | 0.171 | 0.342 | ||||
Total power (% diff.) | 1 | 2399 | 4.1 (− 0.5; 9.0) | 0.081 | 0.065 | |||
2 | 2399 | 2.6 (− 2.0; 7.5) | 0.274 | 0.067 | ||||
3 | 2399 | 1.1 (− 3.7; 6.1) | 0.662 | 0.086 |