An exploratory analysis between dynamic change of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes in a Chinese cohort

The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of dynamic changes of the metabolic syndrome (MS) on the development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Subjects (3461) were recruited from a cohort study of Prevention of Multiple Metabolic disorders and MS in Jiangsu of China (PMMJS) with a follow-up of 3.8 years. The associations between the relative risk (RR) of T2DM and the dynamic changes (difference, the value at first follow-up subtract the value at baseline) of MS component numbers and each MS component were analyzed by using Cox regression model. The total incidence standardized rate of T2DM was 4.67 %. The incidence standardized rates of T2DM in the group of baseline MS−/first follow-up MS−, baseline MS+/first follow-up MS−, baseline MS−/first follow-up MS+, and baseline MS+/first follow-up MS+ were 2.16, 2.88, 9.56, and 10.75 % separately. MS subject numbers in four groups was significantly associated with risk of T2DM (aRR, 1.85; 95%CI, 1.62–2.09). Individuals with highest quartile of difference of MS component number (DMSCN) were approximately 3.92 times to develop T2DM than individuals with lowest quartile of DMSCN. After adjustment for the confounding factors, difference of systolic blood pressure (SBP), waist circumference (WC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (TG), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) showed significant associations with the incidence of T2DM. The dynamic changes of MS component numbers and four groups on the basis of baseline and first follow-up MS and/or non-MS had the prediction ability of T2DM. In Chinese, the dynamic change of MS was a useful prediction factor for T2DM.