The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
MM collected the data, contributed to the planning of the project and wrote the manuscript. BB, KG and MM undertook statistical analysis and contributed to methods and discussion. AR, AO, PK and JM contributed to planning of the project, methods, discussion and commented on subsequent versions of the article. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) are an important cause of mortality worldwide and the burden associated with them is increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa. The tracking of mortality helps support evidence based health policy and priority setting. Given the growing prevalence of non-communicable diseases in Zimbabwe, a study was designed to determine the mortality attributable to CMDs in Zimbabwe.
The study design was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of national mortality from 1996 to 2007, collated by the Ministry of Health and Child Welfare in Zimbabwe. We employed generalized additive models to flexibly estimate the trend of the CMD mortality and a logistic regression model was used to find significant factors (cause of death according to the death certificate) of the CMD mortality and predict CMD mortality to 2040.
CMDs accounted for 8.13 % (95 % CI: 8.08 % - 8.18 %) of all deaths during 1996 to 2007 (p = 0.005). During the study period CMD mortality rate increased by 29.4 % (95 % CI: 19.9 % - 41.1 %). The association between gender and CMD mortality indicated female mortality was higher for diabetes (p < 0.001), hypertensive disease (p < 0.001), CVD (p < 0.001) and pulmonary disease (p < 0.001), while male mortality was higher for ischaemic (p = 0.010) and urinary diseases (p < 0.001). There was no gender difference for endocrine disease (p = 0.893). Overall, females have 1.65 % higher mortality than males (p < 0.001). CMD mortality is predicted to increase from 9.6 % (95 % CI: 8.0 % - 11.1 %) in 2015 to 13.7 % (95 % CI: 10.2 % - 17.2 %) in 2040 for males, and from 11.6 % (95 % CI: 10.2 % - 12.9 %) in 2015 to 16.2 % (95 % CI: 13.1 % - 19.3 %) in 2040 in females.
The findings of this study indicate a growing prevalence of CMDs and related mortality in Zimbabwe. Health policy decisions and cost-effective preventive strategies to reduce the burden of CMDs are urgently required.