Background
Methods
Study design and patient population
SHERPA
Data collection and measures
Outcome variable: functional decline at 3 months
Statistical Methods
Reliability
Sample size
Model fit and discrimination
Results
Population characteristics and functional decline
Intra- and inter-reliability
Model fit and discrimination
1999 cohort (≥75 years) | 2009 cohort (≥75 years) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
SHERPA Category |
N
|
n (%) decliners |
N
|
n (%) decliners |
1 = low risk | 98 | 10 (10.2) | 95 | 21 (22.1) |
2 | 96 | 20 (20.8) | 89 | 27 (30.3) |
3 | 87 | 34 (39.1) | 67 | 25 (37.3) |
4 = high risk | 74 | 41 (55.4) | 54 | 29 (53.7) |
355 | 105 (29.6) c-statistic = 0.72 (p < 0.0001) | 305 | 102 (33.4) c-statistic = 0.63 (p < 0.0001) |
SHERPA category cut-off | positive test, % | Se, % | Sp, % | PPV, % | NPV, % | + LR | -LR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
>1 | 69 | 79 | 37 | 78 | 39 | 1.25 | 0.57 |
>2 | 40 | 53 | 67 | 74 | 45 | 1.61 | 0.70 |
>3 | 18 | 28 | 88 | 71 | 54 | 2.3 | 0.82 |
Variable | Parameter estimate | Standard error | Wald Chi² |
p-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | - 1.47 | 2.46 | 0.36 | 0.55 |
21-point MMSE | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1.26 | 0.26 |
Fall within a year | 0.51 | 0.27 | 3.77 | 0.05 |
Age | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.64 |
iADL | - 0.16 | 0.07 | 4.69 | 0.03 |
SRH | 0.16 | 0.20 | .062 | 0.43 |
Variable | Parameter estimate | Standard error | Wald Chi² |
p-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | −1.2974 | 0.2204 | 34.6441 | < 0.0001 |
Fall within a year | 0.5292 | 0.2619 | 4.0823 | 0.0433 |
21-point MMSE | 0.2364 | 0.1865 | 1.6071 | 0.2049 |
iADL | 0.3727 | 0.1615 | 5.3240 | 0.0210 |