The authors declared no conflict of interest.
AA participated in the study concept and design. AA and MC participated in the acquisition of subjects and data, analysis and interpretation of data, preparation of manuscript. AA, MC and MBD participated in the analysis and interpretation of data, preparation and review of manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
In order to identify the challenges resulting from hypertension in a middle income country, this study has developed probabilistic models to determine the epidemiological and economic burden of hypertension in Mexico.
Considering a population base of 654,701 reported cases of adults with hypertension, we conducted a longitudinal analyses in order to identify the challenges of epidemiological changes and health care costs for hypertension in the Mexican health system. The cost-evaluation method used was based on the instrumentation technique. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2015–2017, probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique.
Regarding changes in expected cases for 2015 vs. 2017, an increase of 12 % is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 23 % increase in financial requirements. The total amount for hypertension in 2016 (US dollars) will be $6306,685,320 Of these, $ 2990,109,035 will be as direct costs and $ 3316,576,285 as indirect costs.
If the risk factors and care models remain as they are currently in the health system, the financial consequences will have a major impact on the out-of-pocket users, following in order of importance, on social security providers and on public assistance providers.