Effects of introducing OOP payments for GPs in Denmark
The authors of a Danish literature review found that co-payments may lead to decreased demand, meaning that citizens will visit their GPs less often. More specifically, through a literature search in EconLit and a chain search, 51 quantitative studies published between January 1990 and December 2011 on the effects of OOP payments were included in the review. The authors highlighted that the vast majority of studies found that OOP payments reduced the number of services demanded, including the number of visits to GPs [
51]. An economic analysis by CEPOS estimated that introducing a co-payment of 127 DKK (€ 17) per GP visit for every citizen above the age of 16, with an annual limit of 1,712 DKK (€ 230), would save society 2.3 billion DKK (€ 310 M), assuming a decreased demand of 10% [
49]. Even though CEPOS is an organisation in favour of OOP payments, and this saving might be overestimated, the study suggested that OOP payments would reduce public health expenditure, which had also been observed in other countries that had introduced cost-sharing practices. The decrease is mainly observed in the use of pharmaceuticals and is supported by extensive literature, including a literature review that found that a fixed co-payment reduces drug use even when the co-payment is small [
52].
OOP payments can lead to increased inequality [
26]. A study based on the 2009 EU SILC survey showed that there is a link between co-payment and having unmet healthcare needs. 24.9% of the participants noted financial reasons as the main reason for their unmet medical needs. Furthermore, OOP payments would decrease accessibility to GPs, because payments would act as a barrier. According to a Norwegian study, the number of visits to GPs decreased when the accessibility decreased [
53]. It can be assumed that the accessibility will decrease the most for the lowest socio-economic groups, because these groups have less money. This decreased accessibility is inconsistent with Danish health law, where it is said that there should be easy access to healthcare [
54]. This discrepancy between Danish health law and OOP payments may hinder implementation. Moreover, a literature review showed that the vulnerable groups in society are more affected by OOP payments than the less vulnerable, richer groups [
51]. A Danish nationwide survey established that immigrants and their descendants make lower use of services with OOP payments compared to ethnic Danes [
55]. These studies showed that the lower socio-economic classes of Denmark might reduce their use of GPs the most, putting them at risk of ill health in the long term and creating inequalities. Increased inequality is a serious matter, because it can decrease overall life expectancy (LE) and can have economic consequences for society [
56].
Even though LE in Sweden and Norway is higher than in Denmark [
57], in the long term fewer visits to GPs may deteriorate health, as diseases will be diagnosed at a later and probably more costly stage, i.e. in hospital. To our knowledge, no studies have calculated the additional cost of treating patients at a more costly stage due to OOP payments to GPs in a Danish context. The fact that no studies exist may reflect the lack of support for OOP payments in Denmark.
For OOP payments to GPs to have no negative effects on health, it would require that the population is capable of distinguishing between necessary and unnecessary visits. A literature review on drug use and co-payment showed that payments for drugs decreased the use of both necessary and unnecessary drugs [
58]. This study indicates that citizens might not be capable of making the right choice, due to the parameter of asymmetric information, thereby risking deterioration of their health in the long term because of OOP payments.
Implementation of OOP payments in Denmark
The
problem stream consists of the increasing health expenditure for GPs because of increased pressure on the healthcare system. In Denmark, it is the task of the government to make sure that public costs are kept within the approved limits [
15], meaning that it is accepted by the population that the government has responsibility for dealing with the problem. However, since the
cultural factors in the context of the policy have shown that Danes have been used to free access to GPs for decades, it might not be generally accepted that the government is entitled to introduce OOP payments.
Regarding the policy stream, the analysis of the media debate has shown that the media in general has been publishing stories against OOP payments. This means that even though OOP payments to GPs were generally accepted as a solution to decrease public expenditure on health, the support might be low. Furthermore, the analysis of the Danish population and GPs as stakeholders has shown that these actors are against introducing co-payments. This could mean that there is no policy stream, because the population and the media do not support OOP payments and can use the possibilities of expressing their opinion to influence the politicians. However, the analysis of the international factors has shown that the politicians can find support from Sweden, Norway, and the OECD.
The politics stream is represented by the analysis of the Danish Parliament. This analysis showed that the opinions among politicians differ, meaning that the government is against OOP payments, while the opposition is in favour. Since the general population is against OOP payments, the government might adjust its opinion accordingly in order to ensure re-election. However, as health expenditure continues to increase, the government might be forced to act against the opinion of the general population out of necessity. Furthermore, with the upcoming General Election, the government might change and a policy window may be created that could improve the chances of implementation. However, as shown in the analysis, there is a tendency for the opinions of the political parties to change, depending on whether they are a part of the government or not. If this tendency continues, future elections may not create such a policy window.
Overall, it can be argued that the problem stream and the politics stream run together, because OOP payments are generally accepted to be a means to decrease demand, and there is some support within the Parliament. However, all three streams are very unlikely to run together, because of the resistance towards OOP payments to GPs in the general population, the media, the GPs and parts of the Parliament. This means that it might be difficult to implement OOP payments in Denmark.
Strengths and weaknesses
This study was a literature search, meaning that the strength of the analysis is dependent on the material found. The quality of the chosen literature was in general high, because all the chosen articles were found through scientific databases [
10]. Additionally, the majority of the chosen articles have been published in leading scientific journals, meaning that the majority of them are high quality, peer-reviewed articles [
59]. However, because our inclusion criteria only accepted studies from the Nordic countries, similar studies from outside the Nordic context were excluded. None of the included studies discussed the possibility that introducing OOP payments that are below the market value may in fact lead to an increased demand in some population groups. Studies discussing this may have been excluded because of the inclusion criteria. Consequently, this paper may overestimate the impact of OOP payments on the reduction in demand.