Background
Methods
Study population and sample collection
Plasma lipidomic analysis
Targeted cfDNA sequencing
Statistical analysis
Results
Study cohorts
Clinical outcomes by 3-lipid signature
Clinical outcomes by genetic aberrations
Genetic aberration | Overall survival in discovery cohort | Overall survival in validation cohort | Radiographic progression-free survival in discovery cohort | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | |
AR aberration | 3.87 (2.21–6.77) | < 0.001 | 2.26 (1.43–3.58) | <0.001 | 1.86 (1.07–3.24) | 0.028 |
TP53 aberration | 3.55 (2.07–6.08) | < 0.001 | 2.18 (1.37–3.47) | 0.001 | 1.80 (1.01–3.13) | 0.039 |
RB1 deletion | 4.10 (2.33–7.22) | < 0.001 | 1.79 (1.09–2.94) | 0.021 | 3.08 (1.64–5.79) | < 0.001 |
PI3K aberration | 2.66 (1.55–4.58) | < 0.001 | 2.11 (1.33–3.34) | 0.002 | 2.53 (1.42–4.49) | 0.001 |
The 3-lipid signature and genetic aberrations
Plasma sphingolipids and genetic aberrations
3-lipid signature and genetic aberrations as a biomarker combination
Variable | Univariable Cox regression | Multivariable Cox regression using AR aberration and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using TP53 aberration and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using RB1 deletion and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using PI3K aberration and 3-lipid signature | ||||||
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HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | ||
Biomarker combinations | AR aberration and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 4.55 (2.27–9.12) | < 0.001 | 2.89 (1.39–6.00) | 0.005 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
TP53 aberration and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 5.22 (2.62–10.41) | < 0.001 | – | – | 3.26 (1.57–6.77) | 0.001 | – | – | – | – | |
RB1 deletion and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 3.05 (1.79–5.20) | < 0.001 | – | – | – | – | 1.98 (1.12–3.50) | 0.019 | – | – | |
PI3K aberration and 3-lipid signature (Group 2 vs 0 and 1) | 3.02 (1.75–5.21) | < 0.001 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.15 (1.21–3.82) | 0.009 | |
Clinicopatholgic factors | Albumin, g/La | 0.86 (0.82–0.91) | < 0.001 | 0.89 (0.84–0.95) | < 0.001 | 0.89 (0.84–0.95) | < 0.001 | 0.89 (0.84–0.95) | < 0.001 | 0.88 (0.83–0.94) | < 0.001 |
ECOG performance status (≥ 2 vs 0–1) | 3.94 (1.75–8.87) | < 0.001 | 1.74 (0.73–4.13) | 0.212 | 1.64 (0.69–3.91) | 0.263 | 1.72 (0.72–4.11) | 0.222 | 2.36 (0.98–5.67) | 0.054 | |
Pain at baseline (present vs absent) | 1.89 (1.12–3.19) | 0.018 | 1.73 (0.99–3.04) | 0.056 | 1.50 (0.86–2.63) | 0.152 | 1.77 (1.01–3.09) | 0.046 | 1.64 (0.93–2.90) | 0.089 | |
Haemoglobin (<90 g/L vs ≥ 90 g/L) | 2.70 (0.84–8.73) | 0.096 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
PSA, ng/mLa | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.081 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
ALP, IU/La | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.197 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Treatment type (taxane vs ARSI) | 1.05 (0.62–1.79) | 0.844 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Treatment line (second line vs first line) | 0.87 (0.51–1.48) | 0.597 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Visceral metastases (present vs absent) | 1.59 (0.75–3.37) | 0.225 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
ctDNA Fraction | ctDNA fraction > 2% | 1.97 (1.06–3.66) | 0.032 | 1.74 (0.91–3.35) | 0.097 | 1.76 (0.93–3.33) | 0.083 | 2.22 (1.17–4.18) | 0.014 | 2.24 (1.18–4.24) | 0.014 |
Variable | Univariable Cox regression | Multivariable Cox regression using AR aberration and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using TP53 aberration and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using RB1 deletion and 3-lipid signature | Multivariable Cox regression using PI3K aberration and 3-lipid signature | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | ||
Biomarker combinations | AR aberration and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 2.92 (1.79–4.75) | < 0.001 | 2.45 (1.42–4.20) | 0.001 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
TP53 aberration and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 2.77 (1.67–4.61) | < 0.001 | – | – | 2.82 (1.64–4.83) | < 0.001 | – | – | – | – | |
RB1 deletion and/or 3-lipid signature (Groups 1 and 2 vs 0) | 2.53 (1.58–4.07) | < 0.001 | – | – | – | – | 1.95 (0.98–3.86) | < 0.001 | – | – | |
PI3K aberration and 3-lipid signature (Group 2 vs 0 and 1) | 1.78 (1.03–3.10) | 0.04 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.32 (0.70–2.50) | 0.396 | |
Clinicopatholgic factors | PSA, ng/mLa | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 |
ALP, IU/La | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.002 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.024 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.03 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.069 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.034 | |
ctDNA Fraction | ctDNA fraction > 2% | 1.91 (1.18–3.08) | 0.008 | 1.29 (0.76–2.17) | 0.347 | 1.37 (0.81–2.30) | 0.238 | 1.74 (1.05–2.87) | 0.062 | 1.67 (1.01–2.78) | 0.048 |