Demographic and clinical predictors of progression and mortality in connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease: a retrospective cohort study

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is frequently seen in association with rheumatic diseases. The prevalence of ILD varies with disease subtype; ILD is reported in up to 90% of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), whereas it is less prevalent in rheumatoid arthritis (RA, 4–68%), mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD, 20–85%), and the inflammatory myopathies polymyositis and dermatomyositis (PM/DM, 15–70%), although reported numbers vary [1‐5]. These disorders are collectively termed connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD). The majority of CTD-ILD patients display a pattern of nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) and histopathology, with the exception of patients with RA-ILD, who have an approximately equal proportion of patients with NSIP and usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP).

Although there are differences between CTD subtypes, the presence of ILD is associated with reduced quality of life and worse prognosis [6]. Pulmonary fibrosis is the leading cause of death in patients with SSc and inflammatory myositis, and patients with RA-UIP have a five-year survival rate of 37% [7‐9]. Male sex, older age, baseline severity of lung function impairment, and decline in physiologic parameters over time are associated with disease progression and mortality in studies of individual CTD-ILD subtypes [4, 6, 10‐13]; however, these studies have not identified a consistent combination of variables that accurately predict prognosis in CTD-ILD. Identification of such variables could have a substantial impact on patient care by identifying patients who might warrant more aggressive therapy or earlier referral for lung transplantation assessment.

The primary objective of this study was to use a longitudinal cohort of patients with CTD-ILD to determine the effect of baseline demographic and clinical variables on change in lung function and mortality. Particularly, we were interested in the prognostic significance of easily attainable demographic variables such as ethnicity and smoking status, which have not been consistently shown to affect prognosis in CTD-ILD in prior literature.

A total of 359 patients were identified from the database. Patient characteristics are summarized in Table 1. There were 207 patients with SSc-ILD, 45 with RA-ILD, 26 with MCTD-ILD, and 81 with other CTD-ILD. The other CTD-ILD group included patients with polymyositis (n = 8), dermatomyositis (n = 7), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 13), primary Sjogren’s syndrome (n = 8), interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (n = 14), and undifferentiated connective tissue disease (n = 13).

Our study represents a comprehensive analysis of patients with CTD-ILD evaluated at our tertiary care centre. Patient characteristics were similar to previously reported cohorts of CTD-ILD, apart from a somewhat higher proportion of SSc-ILD and lower proportion of RA-ILD patients, likely related to differences in referral patterns [21‐23]. Five-year survival in our cohort was 80% with median survival 12.6 years, which is similar to or better than other cohorts [22, 24].

Our results support previous studies that showed that male sex and UIP pattern are independent predictors of disease progression and mortality in CTD-ILD. Our finding that male sex predicts decline in FVC, DLCO, and 6MWD has not been consistently reported in other studies that evaluated predictors of lung function decline [10, 11, 13, 25‐27]. Additionally, we found that UIP pattern was associated with accelerated 6MWD decline on both unadjusted and multivariable analysis. UIP pattern is a well documented predictor of progression and mortality in RA-ILD [11, 12, 28], has been associated with ILD progression in PM/DM-ILD in one study [13], and has potential prognostic ability in SSc-ILD [10].

When stratified by CTD (SSc vs. RA vs. MCTD vs. other CTDs), patients with SSc-ILD had accelerated DLCO decline compared to other CTD-ILD, and increased mortality compared to RA-ILD. One small study performed in South Korea involving 93 CTD-ILD patients found no difference in mortality between CTD subtypes [24], and multiple previous studies have shown improved survival in SSc-ILD compared to that in other CTD-ILD [21, 22, 29], with particularly poor survival in in RA-ILD [5, 30]. The reason for the discordance in our cohort is unclear but is likely related to methodologic differences between studies or relatively small numbers of non-SSc patients in our cohort, particularly RA-ILD. Additionally, we did not assess for pulmonary hypertension in our study, which is seen in association with SSc and is a known predictor of mortality and lung function decline [8, 10]. However, the discrepancy in our cohort seems to be driven by improved survival of the non-SSc-ILD patients, as survival of SSc-ILD patients in our cohort was comparable to or even higher than that of prior studies [21, 29].

Interestingly, patients of South Asian ethnicity had accelerated decline in FVC compared to patients of non-South Asian ethnicity. This has not been previously demonstrated, and results may be biased by the small numbers in this subgroup, however this may represent a combination of genetic, ecological, and exposure factors. This did not translate to an increase in mortality, possibly due to inadequate power to detect this difference. In one study of 70 SSc patients in the United Kingdom, the prevalence of ILD was twice as high in South Asian patients compared to Caucasian patients, however they did not assess lung function decline in established CTD-ILD [31]. An ILD registry in India that included 151 CTD-ILD patients found higher numbers of RA-ILD compared to SSc-ILD and a relatively greater proportion of UIP in their cohort [32], factors which have been associated with poorer prognosis, however these variables were controlled for in our analysis. Overall, the impact of ethnicity on CTD-ILD is not well studied [33, 34]. Most epidemiologic studies of CTD-ILD have been done in the United States or Europe with predominantly Caucasian, black, and Hispanic patients [22, 25, 32, 35] No previous studies have specifically noted the increased mortality in patients of First Nations ethnicity with CTD-ILD as was seen in our cohort. However, given that we did not ascertain cause of death, this finding must be taken in context with the well-documented disproportionate burden of mortality among First Nations people [36]. One systematic review of patients with CTD found that mortality in patients of First Nations ethnicity is frequently attributable to disease progression and complications, however the proportional attribution of CTD severity and social factors to mortality has not been evaluated [37].

Positive smoking history was predictive of faster decline in DLCO, likely in part driven by patients with concomitant emphysema. Most studies have shown that smoking is not an independent risk factor for mortality or disease progression CTD-ILD [4, 10, 11, 28, 38‐40], however smoking is included in a proposed risk prediction model for CTD-ILD that also includes age, DLCO, and pulmonary vessel volume [23]. In our cohort, smoking was not an independent predictor for mortality.

Previous studies have identified additional predictors of disease progression and mortality within CTD subtypes, many of which are outside the scope of our study [4, 10, 12, 41]. A clinical prediction model based on such variables could identify high-risk patients who may warrant closer surveillance, more aggressive therapy, or earlier referral for lung transplant. A risk prediction model incorporating sex, age, and DLCO, and another model incorporating FVC, DLCO, and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) have been shown to predict mortality in SSc-ILD, and a modified version of the GAP index has been shown to predict mortality in CTD-ILD with reasonable accuracy [39, 42, 43]. In addition to these variables, our results support consideration of ethnicity and CTD subtype as additional prognostic factors, although further research in this area is needed.

Our study is limited by the analysis of patients from a single tertiary care centre, which may not be generalizable to community centres or other academic institutions. There was a high proportion of patients with SSc-ILD. Our study was also limited by sample size for some comparisons and may be underpowered to identify more subtle predictors of prognosis. Furthermore, it may be possible that some of the observed associations are false-positive findings, as we did not correct for multiple comparisons. The retrospective nature of our study resulted in missing or inadequate data, including cause of death. We were unable to assess certain known predictive factors for ILD progression such as disease duration, longitudinal disease activity, pulmonary hypertension, or HRCT severity. Lastly, survivorship bias may influence longitudinal models. Despite these limitations, this is one of the few studies to predict longitudinal change in PFTs using easily attainable predictor variables in a diverse CTD-ILD population, and is the first to evaluate the effect of certain ethnicities on disease progression.

Our data support prior studies that show that male sex, older age, a history of smoking, and UIP pattern predict progression and mortality in CTD-ILD. We additionally identified novel risk factors including South Asian and First Nations ethnicity. We hope that these data can be used to inform discussions between patients and clinicians around treatment decisions. Given the substantial morbidity and mortality associated with CTD-ILD, further longitudinal studies may add to current clinical prediction models for prognostication in CTD-ILD.