Skip to main content

01.12.2015 | Research article | Ausgabe 1/2015 Open Access

BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders 1/2015

Development and feasibility of a personalized, interactive risk calculator for knee osteoarthritis

BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders > Ausgabe 1/2015
Elena Losina, Kristina Klara, Griffin L. Michl, Jamie E. Collins, Jeffrey N. Katz
Wichtige Hinweise

Competing interests

Dr. Katz is the President-Elect of the Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Drs. Katz and Losina are Deputy Editors for Biostatistics and Methodology for the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to report.

Authors’ contributions

EL conceived of the study and participated in its design, in data analysis, and in manuscript drafting. KK recruited subjects for the clinical pilot study and participated in drafting the manuscript. GM participated in the design of OA Risk C, in data analysis, and in manuscript drafting. JC and JK contributed to the study design and revised the manuscript critically for intellectual content. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.



The incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising. While several risk factors have been associated with the development of knee OA, this information is not readily accessible to those at risk for osteoarthritis. Risk calculators have been developed for several prevalent chronic conditions but not for OA. Using published evidence on established risk factors, we developed an interactive, personalized knee OA risk calculator (OA Risk C) and conducted a pilot study to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility.


We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated, state-transition simulation of the natural history and management of OA, to generate data for OA Risk C. Risk estimates for calculator users were based on a set of demographic and clinical factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, obesity) and select risk factors (family history of knee OA, occupational exposure, and history of knee injury). OA Risk C presents personalized risk of knee OA in several ways to maximize understanding among a wide range of users. We conducted a study of 45 subjects in a primary care setting to establish the feasibility and acceptability of the OA risk calculator. Pilot study participants were asked several questions regarding ease of use, clarity of presentation, and clarity of the graphical representation of their risk. These questions used a five-level agreement scale ranging from strongly disagree to strongly agree.


OA Risk C depicts information about users’ risk of symptomatic knee OA in 5 year intervals. Study participants estimated their lifetime risk at 38 %, while their actual lifetime risk, as estimated by OA Risk C, was 25 %. Eighty-four percent of pilot study participants reported that OA Risk C was easy to understand, and 89 % agreed that the graphs depicting their risk were clear and comprehensible.


We have developed a personalized, computer-based OA risk calculator that is easy to use. OA Risk C may be utilized to estimate individuals’ knee OA risk and to deliver educational and behavioral interventions focused on osteoarthritis risk reduction.
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2015

BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders 1/2015 Zur Ausgabe

Neu im Fachgebiet Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie

Mail Icon II Newsletter

Bestellen Sie unseren kostenlosen Newsletter Update Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie und bleiben Sie gut informiert – ganz bequem per eMail.