Development of a predictive nomogram for 28-day mortality risk in non-traumatic or post-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients
- 23.11.2023
- Original Article
Erschienen in:
- Verfasst von
- Guiqiang Miao
- Zhenbin Cai
- Xin He
- Jie Yang
- Yunlong Zhang
- Ao Ma
- Xiaodong Zhao
- Minghui Tan
- Erschienen in
- Neurological Sciences | Ausgabe 5/2024
Abstract
Objective
Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is associated with high rates of mortality and permanent disability. At present, there are few definite clinical tools to predict prognosis in SAH patients. The current study aims to develop and assess a predictive nomogram model for estimating the 28-day mortality risk in both non-traumatic or post-traumatic SAH patients.
Methods
The MIMIC-III database was searched to select patients with SAH based on ICD-9 codes. Patients were separated into non-traumatic and post-traumatic SAH groups. Using LASSO regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors associated with 28-day mortality and incorporated them into nomogram models. The performance of each nomogram was assessed by calculating various metrics, including the area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results
The study included 999 patients with SAH, with 631 in the non-traumatic group and 368 in the post-traumatic group. Logistic regression analysis revealed critical independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in non-traumatic SAH patients, including gender, age, glucose, platelet, sodium, BUN, WBC, PTT, urine output, SpO2, and heart rate and age, glucose, PTT, urine output, and body temperature for post-traumatic SAH patients. The prognostic nomograms outperformed the commonly used SAPSII and APSIII systems, as evidenced by superior AUC, NRI, IDI, and DCA results.
Conclusion
The study identified independent risk factors associated with the 28-day mortality risk and developed predictive nomogram models for both non-traumatic and post-traumatic SAH patients. The nomogram holds promise in guiding prognosis improvement strategies for patients with SAH.
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- Titel
- Development of a predictive nomogram for 28-day mortality risk in non-traumatic or post-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients
- Verfasst von
-
Guiqiang Miao
Zhenbin Cai
Xin He
Jie Yang
Yunlong Zhang
Ao Ma
Xiaodong Zhao
Minghui Tan
- Publikationsdatum
- 23.11.2023
- Verlag
- Springer International Publishing
- Erschienen in
-
Neurological Sciences / Ausgabe 5/2024
Print ISSN: 1590-1874
Elektronische ISSN: 1590-3478 - DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10072-023-07199-5
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