Skip to main content
main-content

12.01.2016 | Original Article – Clinical Oncology | Ausgabe 5/2016 Open Access

Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology 5/2016

Development of an oncological-multidimensional prognostic index (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients

Zeitschrift:
Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology > Ausgabe 5/2016
Autoren:
Antonella Brunello, Andrea Fontana, Valeria Zafferri, Francesco Panza, Pasquale Fiduccia, Umberto Basso, Massimiliano Copetti, Sara Lonardi, Anna Roma, Cristina Falci, Silvio Monfardini, Alberto Cella, Alberto Pilotto, Vittorina Zagonel

Abstract

Purpose

A multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been developed and validated in independent cohorts of older patients demonstrating good accuracy in predicting one-year mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a cancer-specific modified MPI (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients.

Methods

We enrolled 658 new cancer subjects ≥70 years (mean age 77.1 years, 433 females, 65.8 %) attending oncological outpatient services from September 2004 to June 2011. The Onco-MPI was calculated according to a validated algorithm as a weighted linear combination of the following CGA domains: age, sex, basal and instrumental activities of daily living, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, mini-mental state examination, body mass index, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, number of drugs and the presence of caregiver. Cancer sites (breast 46.5 %, colorectal 21.3 %, lung 6.4 %, prostate 5.5 %, urinary tract 5.0 %, other 15.3 %) and cancer stages (I 37 %, II 22 %, III 19 %, IV 22 %) were also included in the model. All-cause mortality was recorded. Three grades of severity of the Onco-MPI score (low risk: 0.0–0.46, medium risk: 0.47–0.63, high risk: 0.64–1.0) were calculated using RECPAM method. Discriminatory power and calibration were assessed by estimating survival C-indices, along with 95 % confidence interval (CI) and the survival-based Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) measures.

Results

One-year mortality incidence rate was 17.4 %. A significant difference in mortality rates was observed in Onco-MPI low risk compared to medium- and high-risk patients (2.1 vs. 17.7 vs. 80.8 %, p < 0.0001). The discriminatory power of one-year mortality prediction of the Onco-MPI was very good (survival C-index 0.87, 95 % CI 0.84–0.90) with an excellent calibration (HL p value 0.854).

Conclusion

Onco-MPI appears to be a highly accurate and well-calibrated predictive tool for one-year mortality in older cancer patients that can be useful for clinical decision making in this age group.

Unsere Produktempfehlungen

e.Med Interdisziplinär

Kombi-Abonnement

Mit e.Med Interdisziplinär erhalten Sie Zugang zu allen CME-Fortbildungen und Fachzeitschriften auf SpringerMedizin.de. Zusätzlich können Sie eine Zeitschrift Ihrer Wahl in gedruckter Form beziehen – ohne Aufpreis.

e.Med Innere Medizin

Kombi-Abonnement

Mit e.Med Innere Medizin erhalten Sie Zugang zu CME-Fortbildungen des Fachgebietes Innere Medizin, den Premium-Inhalten der internistischen Fachzeitschriften, inklusive einer gedruckten internistischen Zeitschrift Ihrer Wahl.

e.Med Onkologie

Kombi-Abonnement

Mit e.Med Onkologie erhalten Sie Zugang zu CME-Fortbildungen des Fachgebietes Onkologie, den Premium-Inhalten der onkologischen Fachzeitschriften, inklusive einer gedruckten onkologischen Zeitschrift Ihrer Wahl.

Literatur
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 5/2016

Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology 5/2016 Zur Ausgabe

Neu im Fachgebiet Onkologie

Mail Icon II Newsletter

Bestellen Sie unseren kostenlosen Newsletter Update Onkologie und bleiben Sie gut informiert – ganz bequem per eMail.

Bildnachweise