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Erschienen in: Journal of Gambling Studies 3/2016

15.12.2015 | Review Paper

Devil in the Details: A Critical Review of “Theoretical Loss”

verfasst von: Matthew A. Tom, Howard J. Shaffer

Erschienen in: Journal of Gambling Studies | Ausgabe 3/2016

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Abstract

In their review of Internet gambling studies, Auer and Griffiths (J Gambl Stud 30(4), 879–887, 2014) question the validity of using bet size as an indicator of gambling intensity. Instead, in that review and in a response (Auer and Griffiths, J Gambl Stud 31(3), 921–931, 2015) to a previous comment (Braverman et al., J Gambl Stud 31(2), 359–366, 2015), Auer and Griffiths suggested using “theoretical loss” as a preferable measure of gambling intensity. This comment extends and advances the discussion about measures of gambling intensity. In this paper, we describe previously identified problems that Auer and Griffiths need to address to sustain theoretical loss as a viable measure of gambling intensity and add details to the discussion that demonstrate difficulties associated with the use of theoretical loss with certain gambling games.
Fußnoten
1
According to blackjack basic strategy (e.g. Stanford Wong’s “Professional Blackjack”), in some situations players should risk additional money to double down or split.
 
2
As we mentioned above, the initial bet at a blackjack table is one exception where players are advised to bet more money after the hand has started. Other table games contain similar examples.
 
3
Here is an example illustrating when adding the bet sizes does not work. On InTrade (http://​www.​intrade.​com), on October 13, 2012, the closing price for a proposition that paid $100.00 if Obama won the 2012 presidential election (Proposition ID# 743474) was $58.50. Said another way, a bettor risked $58.50 to win $100.00–$58.50 = $41.50. On November 2, 2012, an InTrade customer could bet that Romney would win the election and risk $34.00 to win $66.00 (Proposition ID# 743475). A bettor who placed both bets would have “risked” a total of $58.50 + $34.00 = $92.50. However, he would have been virtually guaranteed a profit of $7.50.
 
4
The exception is poker, where some of the probabilities, such as an opponent’s probability of calling rather than folding, cannot be derived or estimated solely from the rules of the game.
 
5
Expected value is a very old concept. Ore (1960) traced its origins back to Christiaan Huygens in 1657.
 
Literatur
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Metadaten
Titel
Devil in the Details: A Critical Review of “Theoretical Loss”
verfasst von
Matthew A. Tom
Howard J. Shaffer
Publikationsdatum
15.12.2015
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Journal of Gambling Studies / Ausgabe 3/2016
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-3602
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-015-9584-4

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