Elevated parathyroid hormone one year after kidney transplantation is an independent risk factor for graft loss even without hypercalcemia

Consecutive patients who underwent KTx between January 2000 and December 2016 at the Japanese Red Cross Nagoya Daini Hospital (Nagoya, Japan) were included in the study. Data were collected on December 31, 2020. Our patient-exclusion criteria were as follows: those for whom data were lacking; those who had hypercalcemia or hypocalcemia within 1 year of KTx; those who were undergoing treatment with calcimimetics; those who had lost their kidney graft within 1 year of KTx; or those who were under 16 years of age at KTx. Furthermore, those who underwent parathyroidectomy (PTx) were also excluded because their PTH values were affected by the autografted parathyroid function. Hypercalcemia was defined as total serum Ca levels > 10.5 mg/dL. Hypocalcemia was defined as total serum Ca levels < 8.5 mg/dL. Normocalcemic hyperparathyroidism was defined as intact PTH levels of > 80 pg/mL without hypo/hypercalcemia 1 year after KTx. Intact PTH level has been reported to be ≤80 pg/mL in over 98% of healthy individuals irrespective of vitamin D status in both PTH assays used in this study [13].

Patients who met the inclusion criteria were divided into two groups based on the presence (or absence) of hyperparathyroidism: the HPT-free group, comprising patients without hyperparathyroidism and the NC-HPT group, comprising patients with normocalcemic hyperparathyroidism 1 year after successful KTx. Each patients’ sex, age, body mass index (BMI), dialysis vintage, number of HLA mismatches, positivity of donor-specific HLA antibody (DSA), laboratory data, mean blood pressure (MBP) 1 year after KTx, and graft survival were documented. The primary outcome was the risk of death-censored graft loss. Blood sample analyses were performed on all patients every month for 1 year following transplantation and every second month thereafter. The values of serum Ca and intact PTH obtained from blood samples 1 year after KTx were used for patient enrollment and classification. This study is reported according to Strengthening The Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology guidelines.

Serum Ca and phosphorus (P) levels were measured using standard methods. Intact PTH levels were measured using second-generation immunoassays: an electrochemical luminescence immunoassay (SRL, Tokyo, Japan, www.​srl-group.​co.​jp, reference range [10–65 pg/mL]), or an enzyme immunoassay (TOSOH Company, Tokyo, Japan, www.​tosoh.​co.​jp, reference range [9–80 pg/mL]). When serum albumin values were < 4.0 g/dL, all serum Ca values were corrected with serum albumin values as follows [14].The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was evaluated using the creatinine equation provided by the Japanese Society of Nephrology [15].

According to protocols conducted at the Japanese Red Cross Nagoya Daini Hospital, the main immunosuppressive regimens were calcineurin inhibitors (cyclosporine or tacrolimus), mycophenolic acid, mizoribine, everolimus, and glucocorticoids. Basiliximab was used as induction therapy. Furthermore, rituximab administration or splenectomy was used as induction therapy in anti-donor antibody-positive patients with KTx, except in those with low antibody titers.

Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to analyze nominal variables, and the Mann–Whitney U test was used for continuous variables. All results are presented as median (interquartile range) because of their non-normal distribution, confirmed by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlations among the variables (Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM 1)). Kaplan-Meier survival curves and logrank tests were used to estimate the graft survival rates. The Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to evaluate the risk of death-censored graft loss. Donor age [16], BMI [17], diabetes mellitus [18], preformed DSA [19], ABO blood type incompatibility [20], serum P [21], and eGFR [22] 1 year post KTx were included as covariates in the multivariate analysis; these factors have been reported as renal prognostic factors after KTx in previous studies [16‐22]. To reduce selection bias and potential confounding effects, propensity score (PS)-based methods were also employed. A logistic regression model involving 11 covariates was used to derive PSs. These covariates included eight continuous variables (recipient age, BMI, dialysis vintage, donor age, serum P, serum Ca, eGFR, and MBP 1 year post KTx) and three nominal variables (ABO blood type incompatibility, diabetes mellitus, and preformed DSA). Inverse probability of treatment weighting for NC-HPT was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for death-censored graft loss by the Cox proportional hazards model (ESM 2). In addition, PS matching in a 1:1 raio between the NC-HPT and HPT-free groups was also performed to confirm the robustness of the results of other analyses (ESM 3, ESM 4). The crude and multivariable-adjusted risk for death-censored graft loss with intact PTH levels categorized by quartiles were also examined. SPSS version 23.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) and EZR version 1.40 [23] were used for statistical analyses. Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05.

A total of 892 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study (median observation period: 129 [interquartile range, 93–174] months). Of the 892 patients, 493 were assigned to the HPT-free group, and 399 were assigned to the NC-HPT group (Fig. 1). The number and proportion of patients in the NC-HPT group tended to increase over the years (Fig. 2). The intact PTH levels of the NC-HPT group were consistently higher than those of the HPT-free group from the time of KTx to 1 year after KTx (ESM 5). Patient baseline characteristics are presented in Table 1. There were significant differences between the HPT-free and the NC-HPT groups in recipient age, donor age, BMI, dialysis vintage, serum Ca, serum P, intact PTH, eGFR and MBP 1 year after KTx. Other characteristics did not differ between the two groups (Table 1). Although no patients were treated with calcimimetics during the follow-up period, oral vitamin D supplementation was introduced in 9.9% (49/493) of patients in the HPT-free group 97 (65–133) months after KTx, and 11.3% (45/399) of patients in the NC-HPT group 82 (45–114) months after KTx, mainly for the treatment of osteoporosis (P = 0.591). There was a weak correlation between intact PTH and age, dialysis vintage, BMI, serum Ca, serum P, and eGFR, with an absolute correlation coefficient of less than 0.2 (ESM 1).

Graft loss was observed in 95 patients, with a more frequent occurrence in the NC-HPT group than in the HPT-free group (13.3% vs 8.5%, respectively, P = 0.022) despite the shorter follow-up period in the NC-HPT group (116 months vs 146 months, respectively, P < 0.001) (Table 1). The death-censored graft survival in the NC-HPT group was significantly lower than that in the HPT-free group (96.7% vs. 99.6% at 5 years and 88.5% vs 95.7% at 10 years, P < 0.001) (Fig. 3A). Even after PS matching of 306 recipients from each group, death-censored graft survival of NC-HPT recipients was still inferior to that of HPT-free recipients (98.7% vs 99.5% at 5 years, and 89.3% vs 94.9% at 10 years, P = 0.007) (Fig. 3B). The proportion of graft loss due to chronic allograft nephropathy was significantly higher in the NC-HPT group than in the HPT-free group (5.8% vs. 1.9%, P = 0.002) (Table 1).

The univariate Cox proportional hazards revealed that the independent risk factors for death-censored graft loss were donor age (P = 0.020; HR, 1.025; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.004–1.048), BMI (P = 0.005; HR, 1.075; 95% CI, 1.022–1.130), diabetes mellitus (P = 0.028; HR, 1.719; 95% CI, 1.061–2.785), DSA positivity (P = 0.003; HR, 3.117; 95% CI, 1.485–6.546), serum P 1 year post-KTx (P < 0.001; HR, 1.705; 95% CI, 1.298–2.241), eGFR 1 year post-KTx (P < 0.001; HR, 0.953; 95% CI, 0.935–0.972), and normocalcemic hyperparathyroidism (P < 0.001; HR, 2.290; 95% CI, 1.518–3.457) (Table 2). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model confirmed a significantly increased risk of death-censored graft loss in normocalcemic hyperparathyroidism (P = 0.002; HR, 1.944; 95% CI, 1.268–2.980) (Table 2). In addition, the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted by PS-based methods also revealed significantly higher risk of death-censored graft loss in the NC-HPT group than in the HPT-free group (Table 3). Figure 4 shows crude (unadjusted) and multivariable-adjusted HRs for death-censored graft loss with categories of intact PTH levels at 1 year after KTx. There was a trend to an increase in the multivariate-adjusted HR of death-censored graft loss with intact PTH levels of 77–100 pg/mL (P = 0.067, HR, 1.688; 95% CI: 0.963–2.958) and > 100 pg/mL (P = 0.020, HR, 2.017; 95% CI: 1.117–3.644) (Fig. 4).