Background
Methods
Data sources
Case definitions
Data analysis
Results
Demographic characteristics
Characteristic | No recurrence (n = 961,809) | Recurrence PTB | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary onset (n = 7143) | Recurrence 1 (n = 6739) | Recurrence 2 (n = 379) | Recurrence ≥ 3 (n = 25) | ||
Sex | |||||
Male | 676,648 (70.4) | 5505 (77.1) | 5505 (77.2) | 313 (77.8) | 18 (72.0) |
Female | 285,161 (29.6) | 1638 (22.9) | 1638 (22.8) | 91 (22.2) | 9 (28.0) |
Median (IQR) | 48 (28–63) | 54 (40–64) | 57 (42–67) | 59 (48–68) | 63 (54–68) |
Age group (years) | |||||
0–14 | 9407 (1.0) | 22 (0.3) | 5 (0.1) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) |
15–29 | 246,098 (25.6) | 1198 (16.8) | 993 (14.7) | 35 (9.2) | 3 (12.0) |
30–44 | 180,552 (18.8) | 1065 (14.9) | 912 (13.5) | 39 (10.3) | 0 (0.0) |
45–59 | 218,838 (22.8) | 2150 (30.1) | 1819 (27.0) | 118 (31.1) | 7 (28.0) |
≥ 60 | 306,504 (31.9) | 2708 (37.9) | 3010 (44.7) | 187 (49.3) | 15 (60.0) |
Unknown | 410 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) |
Median of time delay (days, range) | |||||
Time from onset to first hospital visit | 13 (2–30) | 11 (1–31) | 11 (1–30) | 12 (1–31) | 2 (0–16) |
Time from onset to confirm | 23 (10–40) | 14 (30–59) | 27 (14–44) | 31 (16–50) | 28 (17–36) |
Time from onset to course end | 208 (192–234) | 215 (198–249) | 223 (200–274) | 240 (203–284) | 220 (207–255) |
Time from hospitalization to course end | 185 (182–198) | 189 (184–215) | 199 (183–249) | 210 (184–258) | 211 (191–246) |
Management mode | |||||
Enhanced supervision | 479,607 (49.9) | 3624 (50.7) | 3733 (55.4) | 198 (52.2) | 11 (44.0) |
DOTS | 450,977 (46.9) | 3511 (49.2) | 2922 (43.4) | 175 (46.2) | 13 (52.0) |
Self-medication | 8119 (0.8) | 7 (0.1) | 12 (0.2) | 3 (0.8) | 1 (4.0) |
Unknown | 23,106 (2.4) | 1 (0.0) | 72 (1.1) | 3 (0.8) | 0 (0.0) |
Outcome | |||||
Cured | 292,466 (30.4) | 3212 (45.0) | 1749 (26.0) | 85 (22.4) | 5 (20.0) |
Treatment completed | 483,794 (50.3) | 3931 (55.0) | 3783 (56.1) | 208 (54.9) | 15 (60.0) |
Death | 8112 (0.8) | 0 (0.0) | 92 (1.4) | 7 (1.9) | 1 (4.0) |
Unknown | 177,437 (18.4) | 0 (0.0) | 1115 (16.6) | 79 (20.8) | 4 (16.0) |
Characteristic | Recurrent PTB at first episodes | P value | |
---|---|---|---|
Bacteriological negative cases (n = 3639, 52.44%) | Bacteriological positive cases (n = 3300, 47.56%) | ||
Sex | < 0.001 | ||
Male | 2649 (72.79) | 2696 (81.70) | |
Female | 990 (27.21) | 604 (18.30) | |
Age group | 0.233 | ||
0–14 years | 18 (0.49) | 2 (0.06) | |
15–29 years | 636 (17.48) | 506 (15.33) | |
30–44 years | 520 (14.29) | 499 (15.12) | |
45–59 years | 1055 (28.99) | 1054 (31.94) | |
≥ 60 years | 1410 (38.75) | 1239 (37.55) | |
Treatment history | 0.577 | ||
New case | 3463 (95.16) | 3147 (95.36) | |
Retreatment case | 176 (4.84) | 154 (4.67) | |
Time from the completion to recurrent tuberculosis (month, range) | 17.6 (8.3–32.5) | 17.5 (8.3–35.5) | 0.121 |
Median of time delay (days, range) | |||
Time from onset to first hospital visit | 10 (1–29) | 13 (1–34) | < 0.001 |
Time from onset to confirm | 26 (13–48) | 32 (15–62) | < 0.001 |
Time from onset to course end | 213 (197–245) | 216 (199–252) | < 0.001 |
Time from hospitalization to course end | 189 (184–213) | 189 (184–215) | 0.592 |
Management mode | < 0.001 | ||
Enhanced supervision | 3397 (94.41) | 29 (0.89) | |
DOTS | 196 (5.45) | 3234 (99.08) | |
Self-medication | 5 (0.14) | 1 (0.03) | |
Outcomea | < 0.001 | ||
Cured | 749 (20.82) | 1134 (34.74) | |
Treatment completed | 2308 (64.15) | 1569 (48.07) | 0.022 |
Death | 33 (0.92) | 58 (1.78) | 0.003 |
Others | 549 (15.26) | 539 (16.51) |
Probability of recurrence
Risk factors associated with recurrence
Number of all cases | Number of Recurrent cases | Univariate | Multivariablea | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HRs (95% CI) | P value | Adjusted HRs (95% CI) | P value | |||
Sex | ||||||
Female | 286,799 | 1638 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
Male | 682,153 | 5505 | 1.42 (1.34–1.49) | < 0.001 | 1.29 (1.22–1.36) | < 0.001 |
Age group, year | ||||||
0–14 | 9429 | 22 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
15–29 | 247,296 | 1198 | 2.08 (1.36–3.17) | < 0.001 | 1.18 (0.76–1.85) | 0.449 |
30–44 | 181,617 | 1065 | 2.52 (1.65–3.84) | < 0.001 | 1.43 (0.92–2.24) | 0.109 |
45–59 | 220,988 | 2150 | 4.19 (2.75–6.38) | < 0.001 | 2.32 (1.49–3.62) | < 0.001 |
≥ 60 | 309,212 | 2708 | 3.77 (2.48–5.74) | < 0.001 | 2.07 (1.32–3.22) | 0.001 |
Farmer | ||||||
No | 180,805 | 1077 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
Yes | 788,139 | 6058 | 1.27 (1.19–1.36) | < 0.001 | 0.98 (0.90–1.06) | 0.631 |
Residence | ||||||
Urban | 178,955 | 1248 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
Rural | 780,090 | 5843 | 1.07 (1.00–1.14) | 0.025 | 0.99 (0.92–1.07) | 0.855 |
Bacterial test results | ||||||
Negative | 522,340 | 3639 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
Positive | 382,335 | 3300 | 1.25 (1.19–1.31) | < 0.001 | 1.27 (1.21–1.33) | < 0.001 |
Time from illness onset to first hospital visit (month) | ||||||
0–1 | 640,371 | 5263 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
1–2 | 118,170 | 951 | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 0.054 | 0.95 (0.88–1.01) | 0.110 |
2–3 | 40,780 | 388 | 1.16 (1.05–1.29) | 0.005 | 1.09 (0.98–1.22) | 0.089 |
> 3 | 53,070 | 534 | 1.23 (1.12–1.35) | < 0.001 | 1.04 (0.94–1.16) | 0.426 |
Time from illness onset to cure (month) | ||||||
0–6 | 46,647 | 64 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
6–12 | 709,329 | 6459 | 7.02 (5.49–8.98) | < 0.001 | 7.01 (5.43–9.04) | < 0.001 |
> 12 | 60,517 | 611 | 7.52 (5.81–9.73) | < 0.001 | 8.32 (6.34–10.93) | < 0.001 |
Bacteriological negative cases | Bacteriological positive cases | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate HRs (95% CI) | P value | Multivariablea Adjusted HRs (95% CI) | P value | Univariate HRs (95% CI) | P value | Multivariablea Adjusted HRs (95% CI) | P value | |
Sex | ||||||||
Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
Male | 1.26 (1.17–1.35) | < 0.001 | 1.20 (1.12–1.29) | < 0.001 | 1.53 (1.40–1.67) | < 0.001 | 1.43 (1.31–1.57) | < 0.001 |
Age group, years | ||||||||
0–14 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
15–29 | 1.21 (0.75–1.93) | 0.433 | 1.01 (0.63–1.63) | 0.954 | 3.11 (0.78–12.47) | 0.109 | 2.55 (0.63–10.23) | 0.187 |
30–44 | 1.37 (0.85–2.19) | 0.190 | 1.18 (0.73–1.90) | 0.492 | 3.83 (0.96–15.36) | 0.058 | 3.18 (0.79–12.77) | 0.103 |
45–59 | 2.29 (1.44–3.65) | < 0.001 | 1.92 (1.19–3.07) | 0.007 | 6.30 (1.57–25.22) | 0.009 | 5.09 (1.27–20.44) | 0.022 |
≥ 60 | 2.27 (1.42–3.61) | < 0.001 | 1.92 (1.20–3.08) | 0.006 | 4.88 (1.22–19.52) | 0.025 | 4.01 (0.99–16.07) | 0.053 |
Farmer | ||||||||
No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
Yes | 1.33 (1.21–1.45) | < 0.001 | 1.01 (0.91–1.13) | 0.833 | 1.09 (0.98–1.19) | 0.102 | 0.95 (0.85–1.66) | 0.381 |
Residence | ||||||||
Urban | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
Rural | 1.16 (1.06–1.26) | < 0.001 | 1.08 (0.98–1.20) | 0.108 | 0.93 (0.85–1.01) | 0.095 | 0.90 (0.81–1.00) | 0.051 |
Time from illness onset to first hospital visit (month) | ||||||||
0–1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
1–2 | 0.93 (0.84–1.03) | 0.154 | 0.91 (0.82–1.01) | 0.062 | 0.98 (0.89–1.08) | 0.645 | 0.98 (0.89–1.08) | 0.662 |
2–3 | 1.13 (0.97–1.32) | 0.124 | 1.08 (0.93–1.27) | 0.301 | 1.12 (0.97–1.29) | 0.114 | 1.10 (0.96–1.27) | 0.182 |
> 3 | 1.17 (1.02–1.34) | 0.029 | 0.95 (0.81–1.11) | 0.524 | 1.17 (1.04–1.32) | 0.009 | 1.13 (0.98–1.30) | 0.082 |
Time from illness onset to cure (month) | ||||||||
0–6 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
6–12 | 5.85 (4.23–8.08) | < 0.001 | 6.03 (4.32–8.41) | < 0.001 | 8.88 (5.99–13.17) | < 0.001 | 8.40 (5.67–12.45) | < 0.001 |
> 12 | 8.09 (5.74–11.42) | < 0.001 | 8.31 (5.79–11.90) | < 0.001 | 9.85 (6.54–14.83) | < 0.001 | 8.73 (5.76–13.23) | < 0.001 |