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01.12.2012 | Research | Ausgabe 1/2012 Open Access

Malaria Journal 1/2012

Estimates of child deaths prevented from malaria prevention scale-up in Africa 2001-2010

Zeitschrift:
Malaria Journal > Ausgabe 1/2012
Autoren:
Thomas P Eisele, David A Larsen, Neff Walker, Richard E Cibulskis, Joshua O Yukich, Charlotte M Zikusooka, Richard W Steketee
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​1475-2875-11-93) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Competing interests

The authors have declared there to be no financial or non-financial competing interests.

Authors' contributions

T Eisele coordinated the analyses and prepared all drafts of the paper, incorporating comments by co-authors. D Larsen led the analysis of all data using the LiST model. R Cibulskis, J Yukich and C Zikusooka led the cost-effective analysis. All named authors contributed to the conceptualization, analysis and/or completion of the estimates, as well as editing of the paper.

Abstract

Background

Funding from external agencies for malaria control in Africa has increased dramatically over the past decade resulting in substantial increases in population coverage by effective malaria prevention interventions. This unprecedented effort to scale-up malaria interventions is likely improving child survival and will likely contribute to meeting Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to reduce the < 5 mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to quantify the likely impact that malaria prevention intervention scale-up has had on malaria mortality over the past decade (2001-2010) across 43 malaria endemic countries in sub-Saharan African. The likely impact of ITNs and malaria prevention interventions in pregnancy (intermittent preventive treatment [IPTp] and ITNs used during pregnancy) over this period was assessed.

Results

The LiST model conservatively estimates that malaria prevention intervention scale-up over the past decade has prevented 842,800 (uncertainty: 562,800-1,364,645) child deaths due to malaria across 43 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, compared to a baseline of the year 2000. Over the entire decade, this represents an 8.2% decrease in the number of malaria-caused child deaths that would have occurred over this period had malaria prevention coverage remained unchanged since 2000. The biggest impact occurred in 2010 with a 24.4% decrease in malaria-caused child deaths compared to what would have happened had malaria prevention interventions not been scaled-up beyond 2000 coverage levels. ITNs accounted for 99% of the lives saved.

Conclusions

The results suggest that funding for malaria prevention in Africa over the past decade has had a substantial impact on decreasing child deaths due to malaria. Rapidly achieving and then maintaining universal coverage of these interventions should be an urgent priority for malaria control programmes in the future. Successful scale-up in many African countries will likely contribute substantially to meeting MDG 4, as well as succeed in meeting MDG 6 (Target 1) to halt and reverse malaria incidence by 2015.
Zusatzmaterial
Additional file 1: Expansion of methods for the Lives Saved Tool analysis. Appendix of methods expanding on the methods used in this analysis. (DOC 168 KB)
12936_2011_2066_MOESM1_ESM.DOC
Additional file 2: Tables of estimated lives saved by country and year. Country specific estimates of child deaths prevented by ITNs and by malaria prevention in pregnancy interventions. (DOC 170 KB)
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Additional file 3: Figures of malaria prevention coverage estimates 2001-2010 for each country. Country specific estimates of malaria prevention in pregnancy (IPTp/ITNs) coverage in rural areas from 2000-2010. (DOC 88 KB)
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Additional file 4: Table of malaria in pregnancy intervention coverage estimates from household surveys 2000-2010. Table of malaria in pregnancy intervention coverage estimates from household surveys 2000-2010. (DOC 1 MB)
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Additional file 5: Tables and additional details of the cost-effectiveness methods and results of sensitivity analysis. Tables and additional details of the cost-effectiveness methods and results of sensitivity analysis. (DOC 128 KB)
12936_2011_2066_MOESM5_ESM.DOC
Authors’ original file for figure 1
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Authors’ original file for figure 2
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Authors’ original file for figure 3
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Authors’ original file for figure 4
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Authors’ original file for figure 5
12936_2011_2066_MOESM10_ESM.pdf
Literatur
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