Background
Methods
Setting
Study period
Surveillance design and case definitions
Point of care testing
Specimen collection and testing
Clinical and epidemiologic data collection
Statistical analysis
Results
Variable | Kibera n = 722 | Lwak n = 499 | Mombasa n = 595 | Nakuru n = 874 | Nyeri n = 509 | Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Case Type | % | % | % | % | % | n | % | |||||
Department | ||||||||||||
Outpatients | 722 | 100.0 | 499 | 100.0 | 146 | 24.5 | 308 | 35.2 | 44 | 8.6 |
1719
| 53.7 |
inpatients | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 449 | 75.5 | 566 | 64.8 | 465 | 91.4 |
1480
| 46.3 |
Case Type | ||||||||||||
ILI | 350 | 48.5 | 292 | 58.5 | 146 | 24.5 | 308 | 35.2 | 44 | 8.6 |
1140
| 35.6 |
SARI | 372 | 51.5 | 207 | 41.5 | 449 | 75.5 | 566 | 64.8 | 465 | 91.4 |
2059
| 64.4 |
Gender | ||||||||||||
Female | 373 | 51.7 | 251 | 50.3 | 240 | 40.3 | 407 | 46.6 | 208 | 40.9 |
1479
| 46.2 |
Male | 349 | 48.3 | 248 | 49.7 | 355 | 59.7 | 467 | 53.4 | 301 | 59.1 |
1720
| 53.8 |
Age | ||||||||||||
< 5 years | 392 | 54.3 | 317 | 63.5 | 569 | 95.6 | 767 | 87.8 | 467 | 91.7 |
2512
| 78.5 |
≥ 5 years | 330 | 45.7 | 182 | 36.5 | 26 | 4.4 | 107 | 12.2 | 42 | 8.3 |
687
| 21.5 |
Flu Activity | ||||||||||||
Low < 5 | 121 | 16.8 | 90 | 18.0 | 109 | 18.3 | 130 | 14.9 | 190 | 37.3 |
640
| 20.0 |
Medium(≥5–10) | 254 | 35.2 | 153 | 30.7 | 212 | 35.6 | 145 | 16.6 | 111 | 21.8 |
875
| 27.4 |
High(>10) | 347 | 48.1 | 256 | 51.3 | 274 | 46.1 | 599 | 68.5 | 208 | 40.9 |
1684
| 52.6 |
Comparison of the BD RIDT to rRT-PCR performance on NS specimens (N = 3,199)
Characteristic | Specimens | %Sensitivity | %Specificity | %PPV | %NPV | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n, | %positive | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | |
Influenza Type | ||||||
Influenza A or B | 321 | 10.0 | 77.0 (72.6–80.9) | 94.9 (94.0–95.7) | 69.5 (65.0–73.6) | 96.5 (95.7–97.1) |
Influenza A | 270 | 8.4 | 77.8 (73.0–82.0) | 95.8 (94.4–96.0) | 66.5 (61.7–71.0) | 97.2 (96.5–97.8) |
Influenza B | 46 | 1.4 | 63.9 (51.7–74.6) | 99.6 (99.3–99.8) | 79.3 (66.3–88.4) | 99.2 (98.9–99.4) |
Case Type: | ||||||
SARI (n = 2059) | 178 | 8.6 | 74.2 (68.1–79.5) | 94.9 (93.7–95.8) | 65.7 (59.7–71.3) | 96.5 (95.6–97.3) |
ILI (n = 1140) | 143 | 12.5 | 80.8 (73.4–82.4) | 95.0 (94.4–96.0) | 74.9 (61.5–70.9) | 96.4 (96.7–97.9) |
Department: | ||||||
Inpatienta (n = 1480) | 122 | 8.2 | 76.3 (69.3–82.8) | 95.2 (93.9–96.3) | 65.9 (58.9–72.7) | 97.1 (96.0–97.9) |
Outpatient (n = 498) | 80 | 16.1 | 87.0 (77.9–92.8) | 95.6 (93.0–97.3) | 81.6 (72.3–88.5) | 97.0 (94.7–98.4) |
Age: | ||||||
< 5 years (n = 2512) | 237 | 9.4 | 78.0 (72.8–82.4) | 95.1 (94.1–96.0) | 68.7 (63.5–73.5) | 96.9 (96.1–97.6) |
≥ 5 years (n = 687) | 84 | 12.2 | 74.3 (65.1–81.9) | 94.3 (91.9–96.0) | 71.8 (62.6–79.5) | 94.9 (92.7–96.5) |
Illness onset to sample collection: | ||||||
Less than 2 days (n = 346) | 23 | 6.6 | 65.7 (47.7–80.3) | 92.0 (88.2–94.6) | 47.9 (33.5–62.6) | 96.0 (92.9–97.8) |
≥ 2 to 3 days (n = 1267) | 145 | 11.4 | 79.2 (75.5–84.7) | 95.5 (94.0–96.6) | 74.7 (67.9–80.6) | 96.5 (95.1–97.4) |
> 3 to 4 days (n = 454) | 44 | 9.7 | 80.0 (66.7–89.1) | 94.5 (91.6–96.4) | 66.7 (53.9–77.5) | 97.2 (94.8–98.5) |
> 4 to 5 days (n = 337) | 30 | 8.9 | 75.0 (58.5–86.8) | 96.0 (92.9–97.8) | 71.4 (55.2–83.8) | 96.6 (93.7–98.3) |
> 5 to 6 days (n = 237) | 21 | 8.9 | 77.8 (57.3–90.6) | 95.2 (91.2–97.6) | 67.7 (48.5–82.7) | 97.1 (93.5–98.8) |
> 6 to 7 days (n = 174) | 18 | 10.3 | 69.2 (48.1–84.9) | 93.9 (88.4–97.0) | 66.7 (46.0–82.8) | 94.6 (89.2–97.4) |
> 7 days (n = 298) | 23 | 7.7 | 76.7 (57.3–89.4) | 95.9 (92.6–97.8) | 67.6 (49.4–82.0) | 97.3 (94.4–98.8) |
≤ 7 days (n = 2727) | 280 | 10.3 | 77.6 (72.8–81.7) | 94.9 (93.9–95.7) | 69.8 (65.0–74.2) | 96.5 (95.7–97.2) |
Sample collection to sample testingb: | ||||||
> 7 days (n = 2834) | 305 | 10.8 | 76.3 (71.9–80.4) | 95.2 (94.3–96.0) | 72.4 (67.9–76.6) | 96.1 (95.2–96.8) |
≤ 7 days (n = 365) | 16 | 4.4 | 94.1 (69.2–99.7) | 92.8 (89.4–95.2) | 39.0 (24.6–55.5) | 99.7 (98.0–100) |
Influenza Prevalence | ||||||
Influenza activity <5% (n = 640) | 13 | 2.0 | 72.2 (46.4–89.3) | 95.7 (93.7–97.1) | 32.5 (19.1–49.2) | 99.2 (98.0–99.7) |
Influenza activity 5to10% (n = 875) | 42 | 4.8 | 76.4 (62.7–86.3) | 95.0 (93.2–96.3) | 50.6 (39.5–61.7) | 98.4 (97.2–99.1) |
Influenza activity >10to15% (n = 354) | 28 | 7.9 | 71.8 (54.9–84.5) | 95.2 (92.1–97.2) | 65.1 (49.0–78.5) | 96.5 (93.6–98.1) |
Influenza activity >15% (n = 1334) | 238 | 17.9 | 78.1 (73.0–82.5) | 94.4 (92.7–95.7) | 80.5 (75.4–84.7) | 93.5 (91.8–94.9) |
Influenza activity ≥10%(n = 1684) | 266 | 15.8 | 77.3 (72.5–81.6) | 94.6 (93.2–95.7) | 78.5 (73.6–82.6) | 94.2 (92.8–95.4) |
Flu activity <10% (n = 1515) | 56 | 3.6 | 75.3 (63.6–84.4) | 95.3 (94.0–96.3) | 44.7 (35.8–53.9) | 98.7 (97.9–99.2) |
Surveillance Site: | ||||||
Kibera (n = 722) | 85 | 11.8 | 73.9 (64.7–81.5) | 95.6 (93.5–99.7) | 75.9 (66.7–83.3) | 95.1 (93.1–96.6) |
Lwak (n = 499) | 34 | 6.8 | 68.0 (53.2–80.1) | 92.7 (89.7–94.8) | 50.7 (38.4–63.0) | 96.3 (94.0–97.8) |
Mombasa (595) | 55 | 9.2 | 79.7 (68.0–88.1) | 95.1 (92.7–96.7) | 67.9 (56.5–77.6) | 97.3 (95.4–98.4) |
Nakuru(874) | 110 | 12.6 | 84.6 (77.0–90.1) | 94.0 (91.9–95.5) | 71.0 (63.0–77.8) | 97.2 (95.7–98.3) |
Nyeri (n = 509) | 37 | 7.3 | 69.8 (55.5–81.3) | 97.8 (95.9–98.9) | 78.7 (63.9–88.8) | 96.5 (94.3–97.9) |
Characteristic | Specimens | %Sensitivity | %Specificity | %PPV | %NPV | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | %positive | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | (CI, 95%) | |
Influenza Type | ||||||
Influenza A or B | 295 | 9.5 | 67.4 (63.0–71.7) | 94.1 (93.2–95.0) | 65.3 (60.9–69.6) | 94.6 (93.8–95.5) |
Influenza A | 248 | 8.0 | 71.7 (66.9–76.4) | 94.7 (93.8–95.5) | 62.6 (57.9–67.4) | 96.4 (95.7–97.1) |
Influenza B | 41 | 1.3 | 43.2 (33.2–54.1) | 99.4 (99.2–99.7) | 70.7 (58.0–82.4) | 98.2 (97.8–98.7) |
Case Type: | ||||||
SARI (n = 1995) | 160 | 8.0 | 65.0 (58.7–70.9) | 94.1 (92.9–95.1) | 60.8 (54.6–66.7)) | 95.0 (93.9–96.0) |
ILI (n = 1124) | 135 | 12.0 | 70.3 (63.2–75.6) | 94.2 (92.5–95.6) | 71.4 (63.3–77.6) | 93.9 (92.1–95.3) |
Department: | ||||||
Inpatienta (n = 1,429) | 105 | 7.3 | 69.5 (61.4–76.6) | 94.1 (92.6–95.3) | 58.0 (50.4–65.2) | 96.3 (95.1–97.3) |
Outpatient (n = 489) | 77 | 15.7 | 80.2 (70.5–87.4) | 94.7 (91.8–96.6) | 78.6 (68.9–86.0) | 95.1 (92.4–97.0) |
Age: | ||||||
< 5 years (n = 2,443) | 217 | 8.9 | 70.5 (65.0–75.4) | 94.2 (93.1–95.1) | 63.7 (58.4–68.9) | 95.7 (94.9–96.6) |
≥ 5 years (n = 676) | 78 | 11.5 | 60.0 (51.0–68.4) | 93.8 (90.5–94.9) | 69.6 (57.3–74.9) | 90.8 (88.1–93.1) |
Duration of illness onset to sample collection: | ||||||
Less than 2 days (n = 341) | 23 | 6.7 | 54.8 (38.8–69.8) | 92.0 (88.1–94.7) | 48.9 (34.3–69.7) | 93.5 (90.0–96.0) |
≥ 2 to 3 days (n = 1245) | 133 | 10.7 | 68.2 (61.1–74.6) | 94.5 (92.9–96.7) | 69.6 (62.5–76.0) | 94.1 (92.5–95.4) |
> 3 to 4 days (n = 443) | 44 | 9.9 | 69.8 (56.8–80.4) | 94.2 (91.2–96.3) | 66.7 (53.9–77.5) | 95.0 (92.1–96.9) |
> 4 to 5 days (n = 326) | 25 | 7.7 | 73.5 (55.3–86.5) | 94.5 (91.1–96.7) | 61.0 (44.5–75.4) | 96.8 (93.9–98.5) |
> 5 to 6 days (n = 232) | 21 | 9.1 | 75.0 (54.8–88.6) | 95.1 (90.9–97.5) | 67.7 (48.5–82.7) | 96.5 (92.7–98.5) |
> 6 to 7 days (n = 170) | 16 | 9.4 | 59.3 (39.0–77.0) | 93.0 (86.7–96.0) | 61.5 (40.7–79.1) | 92.4 (86.7–96.0) |
> 7 days (n = 453) | 34 | 7.5 | 61.8 (47.7–74.3) | 93.7 (90.6–95.8) | 56.6 (44.1–70.2) | 94.7 (91.8–96.6) |
≤ 7 days (n = 2666) | 261 | 9.8 | 68.1 (63.2–72.7) | 94.2 (93.2–95.1) | 66.4 (61.5–71.0) | 94.6 (93.6–95.5) |
Time of sample collection to sample testing: | ||||||
> 7 days (n = 2,773) | 281 | 10.1 | 67.7 (62.9–72.1) | 94.4 (93.3–95.2) | 67.9 (63.1–72.3) | 94.3 (93.3–95.2) |
< 7 days (n = 346) | 14 | 4.0 | 60.9 (38.8–79.5) | 92.6 (89.0–95.1) | 36.8 (22.3–54.0) | 97.1 (94.4–98.6) |
Influenza Prevalence | ||||||
Flu activity <5% (n = 619) | 11 | 1.8 | 91.7 (59.8–99.6) | 95.6 (93.5–97.0) | 28.9 (16.0–46.1) | 99.8 (98.9–100) |
Flu activity ≥ 5to < 10%(n = 857) | 33 | 3.9 | 53.2 (40.2–65.8) | 94.1 (92.3–95.6) | 41.3 (30.5–52.8) | 96.3 (94.6–97.4) |
Flu activity >10–15% (n = 342) | 28 | 8.2 | 70.0 (53.3–82.9) | 95.0 (91.8–97.1) | 65.1 (49.0–78.5) | 96.0 (92.9–97.8) |
Flu activity >15% (n = 1301) | 223 | 17.1 | 68.8 (63.4–73.8) | 93.0 (91.2–94.5) | 76.6 (71.3–81.3) | 90.0 (87.9–91.7) |
Flu activity ≥10% (n = 1,643) | 251 | 15.3 | 69.0 (63.9–75.6) | 93.5 (92.0–94.8) | 75.1 (70.1–79.6) | 91.4 (89.7–92.8) |
Flu activity <10% (1,476) | 44 | 3.0 | 59.5 (47.4–70.5) | 94.7 (93.4–95.8) | 37.3 (28.7–46.7) | 97.8 (96.9–98.5) |
Site: | ||||||
Kibera (n = 707) | 79 | 11.2 | 60.3 (51.4–68.6) | 95.3 (93.2–96.8) | 74.5 (65.0–82.3) | 91.3 (88.7–93.4) |
Lwak (494) | 34 | 6.9 | 56.7 (43.3–69.2) | 92.4 (89.5–94.7) | 50.7 (38.4–63.0) | 93.9 (91.1–95.9) |
Mombasa(n = 562) | 45 | 7.9 | 72.6 (59.6–82.8) | 93.3 (90.6–95.2) | 57.0 (45.4–67.9) | 96.5 (94.4–97.9) |
Nakuru (n = 851) | 102 | 12.0 | 77.9 (69.6–84.4) | 92.9 (90.7–94.6) | 66.7 (58.5–73.9) | 95.8 (94.0–97.2) |
Nyeri (n = 500) | 35 | 7.0 | 64.1 (50.6–77.8) | 97.3 (95.2–98.5) | 74.5 (59.4–84.9) | 95.8 (93.4–97.4) |