Background
Methods
EITS model
Influenza | Rhinovirus | Norovirus | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pathogen-specific parameters
| ||||||
1/γ: Infectious | 6 | 10.4 | [41] | 15 | [42] | |
period (days) | ||||||
α: Shedding rate (pathogen hours −1 people −1) | 1×104 | 1×103 | 2.88×103 | |||
μF: Inactivation rate | 0.121 | 1.44 | 0.288 | [8] | ||
in fomites (hours −1) | (0.058, 0.121) | (0.990, 1.44) | (0.0006, 0.288) | |||
μH: Inactivation rate | 88.2 | 0.767 | [55] | 1.07 | ||
in hands (hours −1) | (55.2, 88.2) | (0, 1.07) | ||||
τFH: Transfer | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.07 | [62] | ||
efficacy (F to H) (proportion) | (0.04, 0.16) | (0.1, 0.40) | (0.051, 0.089) | |||
τHF: Transfer | 0.025 | 0.2 | 0.13 | [62] | ||
efficacy (H to F) (proportion) | (0.01, 0.04) | (0.1, 0.40) | (0.094, 0.166) | |||
ϕH: Pathogen | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.90 | |||
excreted to H (proportion) | (0.10, 0.2) | (0.10, 0.2) | (0.50, 1) | |||
ϕF: Pathogen | 1−ϕH | 1−ϕH | 1−ϕH | |||
excreted to F (proportion) | ||||||
π:Infectivity parameter in contact | ||||||
with x pathogens (unitless) a | 6.93e-05 | 2.46e-3 | 4.78e-4 | |||
aH: rate pathogens are added to hands |
α
ϕ
H
|
α
ϕ
H
|
α
ϕ
H
| |||
(pathogen time −1 people −1) | ||||||
Venue-specific parameters
| ||||||
λ: Accessible surfaces (proportion) | (0, 0.6) | (0, 0.6) | (0, 0.6) | |||
κ: fingertip to surface ratio per individual |
\(\frac {6e-06}{\lambda }\)
|
\(\frac {6e-06}{\lambda }\)
|
\(\frac {6e-06}{\lambda }\)
| |||
(1/people) b | ||||||
ρT: Rate of fomite touching (days −1) | (0, 60) | (0, 60) | (0, 60) | |||
ρFH: rate of pathogen pick up from fomites to hand |
ρ
T
τ
FH
κ
|
ρ
T
τ
FH
κ
|
ρ
T
τ
FH
κ
| |||
1/(days × people) | ||||||
ρFH: rate of pathogen deposit from hand to fomite |
ρ
T
τ
HF
|
ρ
T
τ
HF
|
ρ
T
τ
HF
| |||
1/(days × people) | ||||||
aF: rate pathogens are added to fomites |
α
ϕ
F
λ
|
α
ϕ
F
λ
|
α
ϕ
F
λ
| |||
(pathogen days −1 people −1) | ||||||
Cleaning parameters
| ||||||
ΘF: Rate of fomite cleaning (days −1) | (0, 2) | (0, 2) | (0, 2) | |||
ΘH: Rate of hand cleaning (days −1) | (0, 3) | (0, 3) | (0, 3) | |||
qF: Fomite cleaning efficacy (proportion) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
qH: Hand cleaning efficacy (proportion) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
θF: Effective fomite cleaning rate |
q
F
Θ
F
|
q
F
Θ
F
|
q
F
Θ
F
| |||
θH: Effective hand cleaning rate |
q
H
Θ
H
|
q
H
Θ
H
|
q
H
Θ
H
| |||
Fixed parameters (across pathogens
| ||||||
and venues)
| ||||||
ρ: Inoculation (hours −1) | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | |||
χ: proportion of pathogens absorbed when | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
self-inoculation occurs (proportion) | ||||||
a Parameter fixed based on linearization of the dose-response curve | ||||||
b Parameter fixed based on relative finger to body size. |