Background
Methods
No | Data | Explanation | Sources |
---|---|---|---|
1. | Population by age | Data provided by the United Census Bureau. We used population data by five-year age groups and both sexes for each country (140 countries) for the year 1990–2015. | |
2. | Probability of dying by age | The probability of dying by age also refers to the mortality age. We used the number of people dying between ages x and x + n (ndx) for the years 1990–2015. |
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Yt = variable explained in time t;
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c = constant or intercept;
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∅ = coefficient of each parameter p;
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θ = coefficient of each parameter q; and
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et = residuals or errors in time t.
ARIMA model (p,d,q) | Country | No. of Country |
---|---|---|
(2, 1, 0) | Afghanistan, Armenia, Estonia, Finland, Gabon, Haiti, Jamaica, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia | 10 |
(1, 1, 0) | Albania, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Algeria, Guyana, India, Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Mauritania, Mauritius, New Zealand, Panama, Serbia, Sweden, Tanzania | 19 |
(0, 1, 1) | Argentina, Denmark, Greece, Kenya, Cambodia, Kuwait, Laos, Myanmar, Paraguay, El-Salvador | 10 |
(0, 1, 0) | Australia, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Croatia, Hungary, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Poland, Russian Federation, Senegal | 12 |
(1, 2, 0) | Burundi, Belgium, Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Gambia, Japan, Mali, Mozambique, Malawi, Malaysia, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Tajikistan, Trinidad and Tobago, United States America | 19 |
(0, 2, 0) | Benin, Bulgaria, Bahrain, Belize, Barbados, Canada, Switzerland, Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, Columbia, Germany, Spain, France, Honduras, Ireland, Iran, Liberia, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Latvia, Namibia, Niger, Norway, Pakistan, Qatar, Rwanda, Slovenia, Swaziland, Syrian Arab Republic, Togo, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, South Africa, Zambia | 35 |
(0, 2, 1) | Bolivia, Central African Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Iraq, Italy, Mexico, Nepal, Tunisia, Ukraine, Zimbabwe | 11 |
(0, 2, 2) | Botswana, China, Iceland, Republic of Moldova, Sierra Leone, Vietnam, Yemen | 7 |
(1, 2, 1) | Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Romania, Uganda, Jordan | 5 |
(3, 3, 0) | Cuba | 1 |
(2, 1, 1) | Cyprus, Kazakhstan | 2 |
(1, 0, 0) | United Kingdom | 1 |
(2, 0, 0) | Republic of Korea | 1 |
(2, 2, 2) | Sri Lanka | 1 |
(2, 2, 1) | Latvia | 1 |
(1, 1, 1) | Malta | 1 |
(0, 1, 2) | Mongolia | 1 |
(3, 1, 0) | Netherlands | 1 |
(2, 0, 2) | Sudan, Singapore | 1 |
(2, 2, 0) | Venezuela | 1 |
Total Country | 140 |
Results
Heterogeneous growth of health stock (1990–2015)
Ranking | Health-stock Growth | Average | Ranking | Health-stock Growth | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Qatar | 6.89 | 71 | Turkey | 1.36 |
2 | United Arab Emirates | 4.86 | 72 | Ireland | 1.33 |
3 | Bahrain | 4.01 | 73 | Morocco | 1.32 |
4 | Afghanistan | 3.86 | 74 | Myanmar | 1.32 |
5 | Jordan | 3.65 | 75 | Viet Nam | 1.30 |
6 | Niger | 3.63 | 76 | Peru | 1.28 |
7 | Uganda | 3.59 | 77 | Indonesia | 1.27 |
8 | Yemen | 3.31 | 78 | Colombia | 1.26 |
9 | Benin | 3.29 | 79 | Syrian Arab Republic | 1.26 |
10 | Congo | 3.28 | 80 | Brazil | 1.23 |
11 | Zambia | 3.19 | 81 | Chile | 1.19 |
12 | Liberia | 3.10 | 82 | Australia | 1.18 |
13 | United Republic of Tanzania | 3.09 | 83 | Zimbabwe | 1.16 |
14 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 3.09 | 84 | South Africa | 1.15 |
15 | Gambia | 3.03 | 85 | Argentina | 1.09 |
16 | Mali | 2.99 | 86 | New Zealand | 1.09 |
17 | Rwanda | 2.97 | 87 | Iceland | 1.05 |
18 | Mozambique | 2.91 | 88 | Tunisia | 1.02 |
19 | Burundi | 2.88 | 89 | United States of America | 1.01 |
20 | Malawi | 2.84 | 90 | Sri Lanka | 1.00 |
21 | Togo | 2.82 | 91 | Jamaica | 0.95 |
23 | Iraq | 2.78 | 92 | Kyrgyzstan | 0.92 |
23 | Maldives | 2.77 | 93 | Norway | 0.92 |
24 | Kenya | 2.76 | 94 | Canada | 0.86 |
25 | Cameroon | 2.73 | 95 | Mauritius | 0.83 |
26 | Senegal | 2.69 | 96 | Spain | 0.80 |
27 | Nigeria | 2.60 | 97 | Switzerland | 0.73 |
28 | Singapore | 2.58 | 98 | Fiji | 0.72 |
29 | Mauritania | 2.56 | 99 | El Salvador | 0.64 |
30 | Sudan (former) | 2.53 | 100 | Thailand | 0.61 |
31 | Gabon | 2.51 | 101 | Sweden | 0.61 |
32 | Honduras | 2.48 | 102 | Republic of Korea | 0.60 |
33 | Papua New Guinea | 2.46 | 103 | Malta | 0.54 |
34 | Israel | 2.46 | 104 | United Kingdom | 0.54 |
35 | Kuwait | 2.44 | 105 | China | 0.52 |
36 | Côte d’Ivoire | 2.41 | 106 | Belgium | 0.52 |
37 | Belize | 2.28 | 107 | France | 0.51 |
38 | Central African Republic | 2.28 | 108 | Austria | 0.48 |
39 | Cambodia | 2.25 | 109 | Netherlands | 0.47 |
40 | Guatemala | 2.15 | 110 | Denmark | 0.40 |
41 | Botswana | 2.14 | 111 | Portugal | 0.37 |
42 | Saudi Arabia | 2.14 | 112 | Finland | 0.36 |
43 | Lao People’s Democratic Republic | 2.13 | 113 | Uruguay | 0.35 |
44 | Malaysia | 2.12 | 114 | Italy | 0.28 |
45 | Pakistan | 2.11 | 115 | Barbados | 0.25 |
46 | Ghana | 2.08 | 116 | Kazakhstan | 0.20 |
47 | Haiti | 2.00 | 117 | Czech Republic | 0.15 |
48 | Egypt | 1.98 | 118 | Greece | 0.14 |
49 | Bolivia | 1.97 | 119 | Lesotho | 0.13 |
50 | Namibia | 1.95 | 120 | Cuba | 0.10 |
51 | Philippines | 1.93 | 121 | Germany | 0.07 |
52 | Nepal | 1.92 | 122 | Slovakia | 0.06 |
53 | Cyprus | 1.87 | 123 | Poland | −0.01 |
54 | Nicaragua | 1.85 | 124 | Slovenia | −0.10 |
55 | Algeria | 1.81 | 125 | Japan | −0.11 |
56 | Costa Rica | 1.79 | 126 | Hungary | −0.19 |
57 | Paraguay | 1.78 | 127 | Guyana | −0.29 |
58 | Tajikistan | 1.78 | 128 | Romania | −0.30 |
59 | Swaziland | 1.78 | 129 | Russian Federation | −0.33 |
60 | Luxembourg | 1.72 | 130 | Trinidad and Tobago | − 0.35 |
61 | Ecuador | 1.71 | 131 | Albania | −0.37 |
62 | Panama | 1.65 | 132 | Croatia | −0.44 |
63 | Venezuela | 1.61 | 133 | Serbia | −0.47 |
64 | Sierra Leone | 1.49 | 134 | Armenia | −0.66 |
65 | Bangladesh | 1.49 | 135 | Ukraine | −0.73 |
66 | India | 1.49 | 136 | Estonia | −0.89 |
67 | Dominican Republic | 1.48 | 137 | Bulgaria | −0.95 |
68 | Iran | 1.43 | 138 | Republic of Moldova | −0.97 |
69 | Mongolia | 1.39 | 139 | Lithuania | −1.23 |
70 | Mexico | 1.38 | 140 | Latvia | −1.28 |
Mean | 1.55 |
Global Health-stock forecasting (2016–2100)
Ranking | Country | Health-stock Growth (%) | Ranking | Country | Health –stock Growth (%) | Ranking | Country | Health-stock Growth (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Peru | 2.65 | 48 | Mexico | 1.23 | 95 | Switzerland | 0.59 |
2 | Turkey | 2.12 | 49 | Belize | 1.21 | 96 | Slovenia | 0.58 |
3 | Malaysia | 2.09 | 50 | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) | 1.21 | 97 | Estonia | 0.56 |
4 | Uganda | 2.08 | 51 | Mongolia | 1.20 | 98 | Republic of Moldova | 0.52 |
5 | Sri Lanka | 2.04 | 52 | United Arab Emirates | 1.20 | 99 | Swaziland | 0.50 |
6 | Uruguay | 1.96 | 53 | Syrian Arab Republic | 1.20 | 100 | Ukraine | 0.49 |
7 | Zambia | 1.93 | 54 | New Zealand | 1.19 | 101 | Niger | 0.43 |
8 | Burundi | 1.88 | 55 | Guyana | 1.18 | 102 | Fiji | 0.43 |
9 | Ireland | 1.88 | 56 | Lesotho | 1.16 | 103 | Mauritania | 0.39 |
10 | Luxembourg | 1.87 | 57 | Qatar | 1.16 | 104 | Philippines | 0.39 |
11 | Afghanistan | 1.87 | 58 | Cyprus | 1.15 | 105 | Denmark | 0.33 |
12 | Botswana | 1.86 | 59 | Slovakia | 1.13 | 106 | Finland | 0.33 |
13 | Bahrain | 1.86 | 60 | Singapore | 1.10 | 107 | Panama | 0.31 |
14 | South Africa | 1.81 | 61 | Algeria | 1.07 | 108 | Latvia | 0.31 |
15 | Chile | 1.80 | 62 | Nicaragua | 1.06 | 109 | Côte d’Ivoire | 0.31 |
16 | Germany | 1.77 | 63 | India | 1.02 | 110 | Egypt | 0.26 |
17 | Jamaica | 1.76 | 64 | Viet Nam | 1.00 | 111 | Togo | 0.26 |
18 | Rwanda | 1.76 | 65 | Hungary | 0.99 | 112 | Iceland | 0.24 |
19 | Canada | 1.75 | 66 | Congo | 0.98 | 113 | Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) | 0.24 |
20 | Namibia | 1.75 | 67 | Dominican Republic | 0.98 | 114 | Austria | 0.20 |
21 | Thailand | 1.71 | 68 | Mozambique | 0.98 | 115 | Czech Republic | 0.14 |
22 | D.R. of the Congo | 1.70 | 69 | Malawi | 0.96 | 116 | Benin 0.13 | |
23 | Romania | 1.66 | 70 | Tunisia | 0.96 | 117 | Jordan | 0.12 |
24 | Kuwait | 1.64 | 71 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 0.95 | 118 | Cuba | 0.02 |
25 | Zimbabwe | 1.62 | 72 | Norway | 0.94 | 119 | United Kingdom | 0.01 |
26 | Gabon | 1.62 | 73 | Maldives | 0.94 | 120 | Republic of Korea | 0.01 |
27 | Malta | 1.57 | 74 | Myanmar | 0.90 | 121 | Sudan (Former) | 0.01 |
28 | Paraguay | 1.57 | 75 | Cameroon | 0.88 | 122 | Gambia | −0.02 |
29 | Japan | 1.55 | 76 | Belgium | 0.87 | 123 | Albania | −0.04 |
30 | Morocco | 1.53 | 77 | Australia | 0.83 | 124 | Portugal | −0.08 |
31 | France | 1.53 | 78 | Nepal | 0.81 | 125 | Senegal | −0.12 |
32 | Colombia | 1.50 | 79 | Mali | 0.79 | 126 | Costa Rica | −0.14 |
33 | Kazakhstan | 1.50 | 80 | Argentina | 0.78 | 127 | Pakistan | −0.15 |
34 | Lithuania | 1.48 | 81 | Mauritius | 0.78 | 128 | Croatia | −0.21 |
35 | Ecuador | 1.47 | 82 | Indonesia | 0.77 | 129 | Guatemala | −0.31 |
36 | Ghana | 1.46 | 83 | Haiti | 0.77 | 130 | Poland | −0.35 |
37 | Saudi Arabia | 1.45 | 84 | Yemen | 0.75 | 131 | Italy | −0.36 |
38 | Serbia | 1.44 | 85 | El Salvador | 0.74 | 132 | Russian Federation | −0.60 |
39 | Liberia | 1.39 | 86 | Trinidad and Tobago | 0.73 | 133 | Armenia | −0.72 |
40 | Netherlands | 1.38 | 87 | Kenya | 0.70 | 134 | Spain | −0.83 |
41 | Iraq | 1.36 | 88 | China | 0.69 | 135 | Barbados | −0.94 |
42 | Bulgaria | 1.36 | 89 | Brazil | 0.68 | 136 | U.R. of Tanzania: Mainland | −1.19 |
43 | Honduras | 1.34 | 90 | Israel | 0.68 | 137 | Cambodia | −1.25 |
44 | Greece | 1.29 | 91 | United States | 0.67 | 138 | Tajikistan | −1.41 |
45 | Kyrgyzstan | 1.27 | 92 | Sierra Leone | 0.62 | 139 | Lao People’s DR | −2.36 |
46 | Nigeria | 1.26 | 93 | Bangladesh | 0.61 | 140 | Papua New Guinea | −2.69 |
47 | Central African Republic | 1.25 | 94 | Sweden | 0.60 | Average | 0.8 |