How should we overcome the threat by the pandemic of 2019-nCoV? Epidemic simulation using the SIRS model

Excerpt

Since the first identification in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, a number of cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected patients is increasing around the world. It has been reported that there are high-risk populations with high mortality, such as elderly people and those with comorbidities [1]. However, no specific treatment has been developed yet. Historically, humans have overcome the pandemics of viral infection by preventing secondary infection. Several studies have simulated the spread of 2019-nCoV, and the basic reproduction number (R₀) ranges from 2.2 to 3.6 [2, 3]. On the other hand, patients treated with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs may have insufficient antibody response, implying the possibility of reinfection [4]. …