Skip to main content
main-content

01.12.2017 | Research article | Ausgabe 1/2017 Open Access

BMC Infectious Diseases 1/2017

Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

Zeitschrift:
BMC Infectious Diseases > Ausgabe 1/2017
Autoren:
Felix Weidemann, Cornelius Remschmidt, Silke Buda, Udo Buchholz, Bernhard Ultsch, Ole Wichmann
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​s12879-017-2344-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Abstract

Background

To reduce the burden of severe influenza, most industrialized countries target specific risk-groups with influenza vaccines, e.g. the elderly or individuals with comorbidities. Since children are the main spreaders, some countries have recently implemented childhood vaccination programs to reduce overall virus transmission and thereby influenza disease in the whole population. The introduction of childhood vaccination programs was often supported by modelling studies that predicted substantial incidence reductions. We developed a mathematical transmission model to examine the potential impact of childhood influenza vaccination in Germany, while also challenging established modelling assumptions.

Methods

We developed an age-stratified SEIR-type transmission model to reproduce the epidemic influenza seasons between 2003/04 and 2013/14. The model was built upon German population counts, contact patterns, and vaccination history and was fitted to seasonal data on influenza-attributable medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) and strain distribution using Bayesian methods. As novelties we (i) implemented a stratified model structure enabling seasonal variability and (ii) deviated from the commonly assumed mass-action-principle by employing a phenomenological transmission rate.

Results

According to the model, by vaccinating primarily the elderly over ten seasons 4 million (95% prediction interval: 3.84 – 4.19) I-MAARI were prevented which corresponds to an 8.6% (8.3% – 8.9%) reduction compared to a no-vaccination scenario and a number-needed-to-vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one I-MAARI of 37.1 (35.5 – 38.7). Additional vaccination of 2-10 year-old children at 40% coverage would have led to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 17.8% (17.1 – 18.7%) mostly due to indirect effects with a NNV of 20.7 (19.6 – 21.6). When employing the traditional mass-action-principle, the model predicted a more than 3-fold higher I-MAARI reduction (55.6%) due to childhood vaccination.

Conclusion

In Germany, the introduction of routine childhood influenza vaccination could considerably reduce I-MAARI among all age-groups and improve the NNV. However, the predicted impact is much lower compared to previous studies, which is primarily caused by our phenomenological approach to modelling influenza virus transmission.
Zusatzmaterial
Additional file 1: Supplementary information. (PDF 2648 kb)
12879_2017_2344_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Literatur
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2017

BMC Infectious Diseases 1/2017 Zur Ausgabe

Neu im Fachgebiet Innere Medizin

Meistgelesene Bücher aus der Inneren Medizin

2017 | Buch

Rheumatologie aus der Praxis

Entzündliche Gelenkerkrankungen – mit Fallbeispielen

Dieses Fachbuch macht mit den wichtigsten chronisch entzündlichen Gelenk- und Wirbelsäulenerkrankungen vertraut. Anhand von über 40 instruktiven Fallbeispielen werden anschaulich diagnostisches Vorgehen, therapeutisches Ansprechen und der Verlauf …

Herausgeber:
Rudolf Puchner

2016 | Buch

Ambulant erworbene Pneumonie

Was, wann, warum – Dieses Buch bietet differenzierte Diagnostik und Therapie der ambulant erworbenen Pneumonie zur sofortigen sicheren Anwendung. Entsprechend der neuesten Studien und Leitlinien aller wichtigen Fachgesellschaften.

Herausgeber:
Santiago Ewig

Mail Icon II Newsletter

Bestellen Sie unseren kostenlosen Newsletter Update Innere Medizin und bleiben Sie gut informiert – ganz bequem per eMail.

© Springer Medizin 

Bildnachweise