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Strengths of Actuarial Risk Assessment

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Abstract

Research consistently shows that structured, actuarial approaches to recidivism prediction are more accurate than (unstructured) professional judgment. Therefore, the purpose of this chapter is to discuss the strengths of actuarial risk assessment. First, we will provide greater discussion of ways to conceptualize risk factors that may be included in risk scales (actuarial or other approaches). Then, we will discuss what types of information can be provided by actuarial risk scales (i.e., percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates). Also, this chapter will discuss how the greater objectivity inherent in actuarial risk scales contributes to understanding important psychometrics of the risk assessment approaches (e.g., interrater reliability, construct, and predictive validity) and how the predictive accuracy of actuarial scales compares to other approaches (e.g., structured professional judgment). These sections will be applicable to any type of offender risk assessment (i.e., any scale designed to predict an outcome among offenders). In the next section, the reader will be introduced to a small sampling of sexual offender risk scales (i.e., Static-99/R, Risk Matrix 2000, CBR, Stable-2007, Acute-2007, VRS-SO). Then, results of surveys will be highlighted to illustrate what scales are being used in practice and how the information is being used. Lastly, the practical clinical power of actuarial risk assessment instruments in everyday practice will be discussed.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The only exception we are aware of is that the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment guide (SARA) includes percentile distributions for the total scores and number of risk factors present, although not for the overall summary judgment (Kropp & Gibas, <CitationRef CitationID="CR101" >2010</Citation Ref>).

  2. 2.

    Harrell’s c index is an effect size analogous to the AUC, but it takes into account varying follow-up times. The c value can be interpreted in the same way as an AUC, with values of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.71 noting small, moderate, and large effect sizes.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Forensic Psychiatry, Charité University Medicine Berlin, Oranienburger Straße 285, Berlin, 13437, Germany

    Robert J. B. Lehmann

  2. Correctional Service Canada|Service Correctionnel Canada, Regional Headquarters (Ont)|Bureau Régional (Ont), Kingston, ON, Canada, K7L 4Y8

    Yolanda Fernandez C.Psych.

  3. Forensic Assessment Group, 11 Aspen Grove, Nepean, Ottawa, ON, Canada

    Leslie-Maaike Helmus

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  1. Robert J. B. Lehmann
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  2. Yolanda Fernandez C.Psych.
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  3. Leslie-Maaike Helmus
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Correspondence to Robert J. B. Lehmann .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Behavioural Assessment, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

    D. Richard Laws

  2. Department of Psychology, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA

    William O'Donohue

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Lehmann, R.J.B., Fernandez, Y., Helmus, LM. (2016). Strengths of Actuarial Risk Assessment. In: Laws, D., O'Donohue, W. (eds) Treatment of Sex Offenders. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25868-3_3

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