Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Cancer Causes & Control 6/2009

01.08.2009 | Original Paper

Pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in SEER: age effects and temporal trends, 1973–2005

verfasst von: Suresh H. Moolgavkar, Rafael Meza, Jay Turim

Erschienen in: Cancer Causes & Control | Ausgabe 6/2009

Einloggen, um Zugang zu erhalten

Abstract

We analyzed mesothelioma incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database over the period 1973–2005 using extensions of the age–period–cohort (APC) models. In these analyses, the usual non-specific age effects of the conventional APC models were replaced by hazard functions derived from two multistage models of carcinogenesis, the Armitage–Doll model and the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. The extended APC models described the incidence data on pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas well. After adjustment for temporal trends, the data suggest that the age-specific incidence rates of both pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas are identical in men and women. Driven largely by birth cohort effects, age-adjusted rates of pleural mesothelioma among men rose from about 7.5 per million person-years in 1973 to about 20 per million person-years in the early 1990s and appear to be stable or declining thereafter. Age-adjusted rates of pleural mesothelioma among women have remained more or less constant at about 2.5 per million person-years over the period 1973–2005. Age-adjusted rates for peritoneal mesothelioma in both men (1.2 per million person-years) and women (0.8 per million person-years) exhibit no temporal trends over the period of the study. We estimate that approximately 94,000 cases of pleural and 15,000 cases of peritoneal mesothelioma will occur in the US over the period 2005–2050.
Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Fußnoten
1
Incidence data for the same tumor can be downloaded using different coding schemes from the SEER registry. These distinct methods of downloading the data should yield identical numbers. For example, one can download mesothelioma incidence data using either ICD 10 codes (C45.0 for mesothelioma of the pleura and C45.1 for mesothelioma of the peritoneum, including omentum and mesentery), or using site & morphology = ‘peritoneum, omentum and mesentery’ and histology = 9,050–9,059 (mesothelial neoplasms). For peritoneum, these two codings yield highly discrepant results, with the latter coding yielding approximately four times as many tumors as the former. For pleura, the appropriate equivalents to these two approaches yield identical numbers. In this manuscript, we present the results of analyses of peritoneal mesothelioma incidence based on the second approach for the following reasons. First, this is the older method of coding and, therefore, probably less susceptible to error. Second, it appears to have been the method used in the papers by Teta et al. [9] and Boffetta [31]. We have also performed the analyses using the data obtained using the first method. Our conclusions regarding trends and model fits remain unchanged. However, our estimated rates for peritoneal mesothelioma and projected number of cases are approximately a fourth of those presented here. We would be happy to share these results with any interested reader.
 
Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Stayner LT, Dankovic DA, Lemen RA (1996) Occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos and cancer risk: a review of the amphibole hypothesis. Am J Public Health 86:179–186PubMedCrossRef Stayner LT, Dankovic DA, Lemen RA (1996) Occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos and cancer risk: a review of the amphibole hypothesis. Am J Public Health 86:179–186PubMedCrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Yarborough CM (2006) Chrysotile as a cause of mesothelioma: an assessment based on epidemiology. Crit Rev Toxicol 36:165–187PubMedCrossRef Yarborough CM (2006) Chrysotile as a cause of mesothelioma: an assessment based on epidemiology. Crit Rev Toxicol 36:165–187PubMedCrossRef
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Hodgson JT, Darnton A (2000) The quantitative risks of mesothelioma and lung cancer in relation to asbestos exposure. Ann Occup Hyg 44:565–601PubMed Hodgson JT, Darnton A (2000) The quantitative risks of mesothelioma and lung cancer in relation to asbestos exposure. Ann Occup Hyg 44:565–601PubMed
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Berman DW, Crump KS (2008) Update of potency factors for asbestos-related lung cancer and mesothelioma. Crit Rev Toxicol 38(S1):1–47PubMedCrossRef Berman DW, Crump KS (2008) Update of potency factors for asbestos-related lung cancer and mesothelioma. Crit Rev Toxicol 38(S1):1–47PubMedCrossRef
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Berman DW, Crump KS (2008) A meta-analysis of asbestos-related cancer risk that addresses fiber size and mineral type. Crit Rev Toxicol 38(S1):49–73PubMedCrossRef Berman DW, Crump KS (2008) A meta-analysis of asbestos-related cancer risk that addresses fiber size and mineral type. Crit Rev Toxicol 38(S1):49–73PubMedCrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Spirtas R, Heineman EF, Bernstein L, Beebe GW, Keehn RJ, Stark A, Harlow BL, Benichou J (1994) Malignant mesothelioma: attributable risk of asbestos exposure. Occup Environ Med 51:804–811PubMedCrossRef Spirtas R, Heineman EF, Bernstein L, Beebe GW, Keehn RJ, Stark A, Harlow BL, Benichou J (1994) Malignant mesothelioma: attributable risk of asbestos exposure. Occup Environ Med 51:804–811PubMedCrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Teschke K, Morgan MS, Checkoway H, Franklin G, Spinelli JJ, van Belle G, Weiss NS (1997) Mesothelioma surveillance to locate sources of exposure to asbestos. Can J Public Health 88(3):163–168PubMed Teschke K, Morgan MS, Checkoway H, Franklin G, Spinelli JJ, van Belle G, Weiss NS (1997) Mesothelioma surveillance to locate sources of exposure to asbestos. Can J Public Health 88(3):163–168PubMed
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Price B, Ware A (2004) Mesothelioma trends in the United States: an update based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program data for 1973 through 2003. Am J Epidemiol 159(2):107–112PubMedCrossRef Price B, Ware A (2004) Mesothelioma trends in the United States: an update based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program data for 1973 through 2003. Am J Epidemiol 159(2):107–112PubMedCrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Teta MJ, Mink PJ, Lau E, Sceurman BK, Foster ED (2008) US mesothelioma patterns 1973–2002: indicators of change and insights into background rates. Eur J Cancer Prev 17:525–534 PubMedCrossRef Teta MJ, Mink PJ, Lau E, Sceurman BK, Foster ED (2008) US mesothelioma patterns 1973–2002: indicators of change and insights into background rates. Eur J Cancer Prev 17:525–534 PubMedCrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Holford TR (1983) The estimation of age, period and cohort effects for vital rates. Biometrics 39:311–324PubMedCrossRef Holford TR (1983) The estimation of age, period and cohort effects for vital rates. Biometrics 39:311–324PubMedCrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Holford TR (1991) Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annu Rev Public Health 12:425–457PubMedCrossRef Holford TR (1991) Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annu Rev Public Health 12:425–457PubMedCrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Luebeck EG, Moolgavkar SH (2002) Multistage carcinogenesis and the incidence of colorectal cancer. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:15095–15100PubMedCrossRef Luebeck EG, Moolgavkar SH (2002) Multistage carcinogenesis and the incidence of colorectal cancer. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:15095–15100PubMedCrossRef
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Meza R, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck EG (2008) The age-specific incidence of cancer: phases, transitions and biological implications. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:16284–16289PubMedCrossRef Meza R, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck EG (2008) The age-specific incidence of cancer: phases, transitions and biological implications. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:16284–16289PubMedCrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Jeon J, Luebeck EG, Moolgavkar SH (2006) Age effects and temporal trends in adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia (United States). Cancer Causes Control 17:971–981PubMedCrossRef Jeon J, Luebeck EG, Moolgavkar SH (2006) Age effects and temporal trends in adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia (United States). Cancer Causes Control 17:971–981PubMedCrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Ries LAG, Melbert D, Krapcho M, Stinchcomb DG, Howlader N, Horner MJ, Mariotto A, Miller BA, Feuer EJ, Altekruse SF, Lewis DR, Clegg L, Eisner MP, Reichman M, Edwards BK (eds) (2008) SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2005. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD. http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2005/, based on November 2007 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site Ries LAG, Melbert D, Krapcho M, Stinchcomb DG, Howlader N, Horner MJ, Mariotto A, Miller BA, Feuer EJ, Altekruse SF, Lewis DR, Clegg L, Eisner MP, Reichman M, Edwards BK (eds) (2008) SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2005. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD. http://​seer.​cancer.​gov/​csr/​1975_​2005/​, based on November 2007 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Armitage P, Doll R (1954) The age distribution of cancer and a multi-stage theory of carcinogenesis. Br J Cancer 8:1–12PubMed Armitage P, Doll R (1954) The age distribution of cancer and a multi-stage theory of carcinogenesis. Br J Cancer 8:1–12PubMed
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Peto J, Seidman H, Selikoff IJ (1982) Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment. Br J Cancer 45(1):124–135PubMed Peto J, Seidman H, Selikoff IJ (1982) Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment. Br J Cancer 45(1):124–135PubMed
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Moolgavkar SH, Venzon DJ (1979) Two-event model for carcinogenesis: incidence curves for childhood and adult tumors. Math Biosci 47:55–77CrossRef Moolgavkar SH, Venzon DJ (1979) Two-event model for carcinogenesis: incidence curves for childhood and adult tumors. Math Biosci 47:55–77CrossRef
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Moolgavkar SH, Knudson AG (1981) Mutation and cancer: a model for human carcinogenesis. JNCI 66:1037–1052PubMed Moolgavkar SH, Knudson AG (1981) Mutation and cancer: a model for human carcinogenesis. JNCI 66:1037–1052PubMed
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck G (1990) Two-event model for carcinogenesis: biological, mathematical and statistical considerations. Risk Anal 10:323–341PubMedCrossRef Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck G (1990) Two-event model for carcinogenesis: biological, mathematical and statistical considerations. Risk Anal 10:323–341PubMedCrossRef
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Meza R, Hazelton WD, Colditz GA, Moolgavkar SH (2008) Analysis of lung cancer incidence in the nurses’ health and the health professionals’ follow-up studies using a multistage carcinogenesis model. Cancer Causes Control 19:317–328PubMedCrossRef Meza R, Hazelton WD, Colditz GA, Moolgavkar SH (2008) Analysis of lung cancer incidence in the nurses’ health and the health professionals’ follow-up studies using a multistage carcinogenesis model. Cancer Causes Control 19:317–328PubMedCrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Fisher RA, Corbet AS, Williams CB (1943) The relation between the number of species and the number of individuals in a random sample of an animal population. J Anim Ecol 12:42CrossRef Fisher RA, Corbet AS, Williams CB (1943) The relation between the number of species and the number of individuals in a random sample of an animal population. J Anim Ecol 12:42CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat National Center for Health and Statistics (1997) U.S. Decennial Life Tables for 1989–91, vol 1. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Hyattsville, Maryland National Center for Health and Statistics (1997) U.S. Decennial Life Tables for 1989–91, vol 1. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Hyattsville, Maryland
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Sutton PD, Ventura SJ, Menacker F, Kirmeyer S, Munson ML (2007) Births: final Data for 2005. Natl Vital Stat Rep 56(6):1–101 Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Sutton PD, Ventura SJ, Menacker F, Kirmeyer S, Munson ML (2007) Births: final Data for 2005. Natl Vital Stat Rep 56(6):1–101
25.
Zurück zum Zitat U.S. EPA (1986) Airborne asbestos health assessment update. EPA/600/8-84/003F U.S. EPA (1986) Airborne asbestos health assessment update. EPA/600/8-84/003F
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Nicholson WJ, Perkel G, Selikoff IJ (1982) Occupational exposure to asbestos: population at risk and projected mortality—1980–2030. Am J Ind Med 3:259–311PubMedCrossRef Nicholson WJ, Perkel G, Selikoff IJ (1982) Occupational exposure to asbestos: population at risk and projected mortality—1980–2030. Am J Ind Med 3:259–311PubMedCrossRef
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Doll R, Peto R (1978) Cigarette smoking and bronchial carcinoma: dose and time relationships among regular smokers and lifelong non-smokers. J Epidemiol Community Health 32:303–313PubMedCrossRef Doll R, Peto R (1978) Cigarette smoking and bronchial carcinoma: dose and time relationships among regular smokers and lifelong non-smokers. J Epidemiol Community Health 32:303–313PubMedCrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Hemminki K, Li X (2003) Time trends and occupational risk factors for peritoneal mesothelioma in Sweden. J Occup Environ Med 45:451–455PubMedCrossRef Hemminki K, Li X (2003) Time trends and occupational risk factors for peritoneal mesothelioma in Sweden. J Occup Environ Med 45:451–455PubMedCrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Burdorf A, Jarvholm B, Siesling S (2007) Asbestos exposure and differences in occurrence of peritoneal mesothelioma between men and women across countries. Occup Environ Med 64:839–842 Burdorf A, Jarvholm B, Siesling S (2007) Asbestos exposure and differences in occurrence of peritoneal mesothelioma between men and women across countries. Occup Environ Med 64:839–842
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Seidman H, Selikoff IJ (1990) Decline in death rates among asbestos insulation workers 1967–1986 associated with diminution of work exposure to asbestos. Ann N Y Acad Sci 609:300–318PubMedCrossRef Seidman H, Selikoff IJ (1990) Decline in death rates among asbestos insulation workers 1967–1986 associated with diminution of work exposure to asbestos. Ann N Y Acad Sci 609:300–318PubMedCrossRef
31.
Metadaten
Titel
Pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in SEER: age effects and temporal trends, 1973–2005
verfasst von
Suresh H. Moolgavkar
Rafael Meza
Jay Turim
Publikationsdatum
01.08.2009
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in
Cancer Causes & Control / Ausgabe 6/2009
Print ISSN: 0957-5243
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7225
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-009-9328-9

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 6/2009

Cancer Causes & Control 6/2009 Zur Ausgabe

Update Onkologie

Bestellen Sie unseren Fach-Newsletter und bleiben Sie gut informiert.