Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

  • Published:
Environmental and Ecological Statistics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • NIAAA. (2000 June) 10th Special Report to the U.S. Congress on Alcohol and Health. Washington: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

  • Edwards G. (1997) World Health Organization. Alcohol policy and the public good. Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York.

  • LA. Greenfeld (1998) Alcohol and Crime: An Analysis of National Data on the Prevalence of Alcohol Involvement in Crime Department of Justice Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • R.A. Scribner D.P. MacKinnon J.H. Dwyer (1995) ArticleTitleThe risk of assaultive violence and alcohol availability in Los Angeles County American Journal of Public Health 85 IssueID3 335–40 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:ByqB3c%2FgtlI%3D Occurrence Handle7892915

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • D.M. Gorman P.W. Speer E.W. Labouvie A.P. Subaiya (1998) ArticleTitleRisk of assaultive violence and alcohol availability in New Jersey American Journal of Public Health 88 IssueID1 97–100 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1c3kslOguw%3D%3D Occurrence Handle9584042

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • D.M. Gorman E.W. Labouvie P.W. Speer A.P. Subaiya (1998) ArticleTitleAlcohol availability and domestic violence American Journal of Drug Alcohol Abuse 24 IssueID4 661–73 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M%2FmsFShug%3D%3D

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • P.W. Speer D.M. Gorman E.W. Labouvie M.J. Ontkush (1998) ArticleTitleViolent crime and alcohol availability: relationships in an urban community Journal of Public Health Policy 19 IssueID3 303–18 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M%2FhsFWjtQ%3D%3D Occurrence Handle9798373

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • M.L. Alaniz R.S. Cartmill R.N. Parker (1998) ArticleTitleImmigrants and violence: The importance of neighborhood context Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences 20 IssueID2 155–74

    Google Scholar 

  • R. Scribner D. Cohen S. Kaplan S.H. Allen (1999) ArticleTitleAlcohol availability and homicide in New Orleans: conceptual considerations for small area analysis of the effect of alcohol outlet density Journal of Studies on Alcohol 60 IssueID3 310–6 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M3pslKltQ%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10371257

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • R.J. Stevenson B. Lind D. Weatherburn (1999) ArticleTitleThe relationship between alcohol sales and assault in New South Wales, Australia Addiction 94 IssueID3 397–410 Occurrence Handle10.1046/j.1360-0443.1999.9433979.x Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3c%2Fntlyjsw%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10605868

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • D.M. Gorman P.W. Speer P.J. Gruenewald E.W. Labouvie (2001) ArticleTitleSpatial dynamics of alcohol availability, neighborhood structure and violent crime Journal of Studies on Alcohol 62 IssueID5 628–36 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3MnltVaktA%3D%3D Occurrence Handle11702802

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • R.J. Reid J. Hughey N.A. Peterson (2003) ArticleTitleGeneralizing the alcohol outlet-assaultive violence link: evidence from a U.S. Midwestern city Substance Use and Misuse 38 IssueID14 1971–82 Occurrence Handle10.1081/JA-120025122 Occurrence Handle14677778

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • O.J. Skog (1985) ArticleTitleThe collectivity of drinking cultures: A theory of the distribution of alcohol consumption British Journal of Addiction 80 83–99 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BiqC2cboslQ%3D Occurrence Handle3856453

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • D.A. Parker M.W. Wolz (1979) ArticleTitleAlcohol problems and the availability of alcohol Alcohol Clinical Experimental Research 3 IssueID4 309–12 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:Bi%2BD1crnvVw%3D

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • R.J. Sampson S.W. Raudenbush F. Earls (1997) ArticleTitleNeighborhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy Science 277 918–24 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.277.5328.918 Occurrence Handle1:CAS:528:DyaK2sXltlCks70%3D Occurrence Handle9252316

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • R.J. Sampson S.W. Raudenbush (1999) ArticleTitleSystematic Social Observation of Public Spaces: A New Look at Disorder in Urban Neighborhoods American Journal of Sociology 105 IssueID3 603–51 Occurrence Handle10.1086/210356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • S. Banerjee B.P. Carlin A.E. Gelfand (2004) Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data Chapman and Hall/CRC Press Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • A.D. Cliff J.K. Ord (1981) Spatial Processes: Models and Applications Pion Limited London

    Google Scholar 

  • G.J.G. Upton B. Fingleton (1985) Spatial Data Analysis by Example, Volume 1, Point Pattern and Quantitative Data Wiley New York

    Google Scholar 

  • A.B. Millar P.J. Gruenewald (1997) ArticleTitleUse of spatial models for community program evaluation of changes in alcohol outlet distribution Addiction 92 IssueIDSuppl 2 273–83

    Google Scholar 

  • L.W. Sherman P.R. Gartin M.E. Buerger (1989) ArticleTitleHot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place Criminology 27 IssueID1 27–55

    Google Scholar 

  • A.T. Geronimus J. Bound (1998) ArticleTitleUse of census-based aggregate variables to proxy for socioeconomic group: evidence from national samples American Journal of Epidemiology 148 IssueID5 475–86 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1cvgslGkug%3D%3D Occurrence Handle9737560

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • B.P. Carlin T.A. Louis (2000) Bayes and Empirical Bayes Methods for Data Analysis EditionNumber2nd Edition Chapman & Hall/CRC Press Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • Spiegelhalter D.J., Thomas A., Best N., and Gilks W.R. (1995) BUGS: Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling, Version 0.50. Technical Report, Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge University. http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/welcome.shtml.

  • D.G. Clayton J.M. Kaldor (1987) ArticleTitleEmpirical Bayes estimates of age-standardized relative risks for use in disease mapping Biometrics 43 671–81 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BieD38rjslI%3D Occurrence Handle3663823

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • J. Besag J.C. York A. Mollie (1991) ArticleTitleBayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics (with discussion) Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 43 1–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Spiegelhalter D.J., Best N., Carlin B.P., and van der Linde A. (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 64 (Series B), 583–639.

    Google Scholar 

  • D.W. Roncek P.A. Maier (1991) ArticleTitleBars, blocks, and crimes revisited: Linking the theory of routine activities to the empiricism of ‘hot spots’ Criminology 29 IssueID4 725–53

    Google Scholar 

  • L.A. Waller B.P. Carlin H. Xia A.E. Gelfand (1997) ArticleTitleHierarchical spatio-temporal mapping of disease rates Journal of the American Statistical Association 92 607–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu H. and Carlin B.P. (2005) Bayesian areal wombling for geographical boundary analysis. Research Report 2004–03, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota. To appear, Geographical Analysis .

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Minnesota Department of Education, Safe and Healthy Learners Unit, Roseville, Minnesota, USA

    Heather R. Britt

  2. School of Public Health, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, MMC 303, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 55455-0392, USA

    Bradley P. Carlin

  3. School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

    Traci L. Toomey

  4. College of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

    Alexander C. Wagenaar

Authors
  1. Heather R. Britt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bradley P. Carlin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Traci L. Toomey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Alexander C. Wagenaar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bradley P. Carlin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

R. Britt, H., Carlin, B.P., Toomey, T.L. et al. Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence . Environ Ecol Stat 12, 411–426 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-005-1518-3

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-005-1518-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation