A prospective study on the association between hay fever among children and incidence of asthma in East Germany

Background Aim of this study was to examine the effect of hay fever in childhood for asthma onset from childhood to adulthood in a prospective cohort of 3,199 asthma-free children, initially aged 5–13 years, which were followed for up to 12 years in East-Germany. Methods Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of asthma onset due to hay fever at baseline were calculated by a generalized estimation equation approach accounting for person years at risk, age at study entry, parental asthma, and gender. Results Overall 142 incident cases of asthma were observed. Prevalence of hay fever at baseline was 4%. Crude and adjusted IRR were essentially the same and showed overall and in each age group a substantial higher risk of asthma onset due to hay fever. The adjusted IRR was 4 overall and ranged between 3 and 5 within the three age groups. Restricting the analysis to those participants, who were 17–25 years of age at the end of follow-up resulted in similar IRR. Conclusion Hay fever in childhood is a strong predictor of asthma onset later in life up to adulthood. The preventive potential of early and efficient treatment of allergic rhinitis to avoid asthma development needs to be investigated.