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Journal of Medical Systems
Erschienen in: Journal of Medical Systems 7/2016

01.07.2016 | Systems-Level Quality Improvement

Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow

verfasst von: Mohamed Afilal, Farouk Yalaoui, Frédéric Dugardin, Lionel Amodeo, David Laplanche, Philippe Blua

Erschienen in: Journal of Medical Systems | Ausgabe 7/2016

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Abstract

Emergency department (ED) have become the patient’s main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.
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Metadaten
Titel
Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow
verfasst von
Mohamed Afilal
Farouk Yalaoui
Frédéric Dugardin
Lionel Amodeo
David Laplanche
Philippe Blua
Publikationsdatum
01.07.2016
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Journal of Medical Systems / Ausgabe 7/2016
Print ISSN: 0148-5598
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-689X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-016-0527-0

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