Abstract
This study utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate youth risk trajectories for HIV and factors associated with different trajectories. The sample (N = 8,208) was 49.2% female, with a mean age of 14.31 (SD = 1.48). A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both males and females: (1) consistently higher sexual risk levels, increasing to early adulthood followed by some decrease (“high”); (2) a short period of increase to late teens, followed by a longer period of decrease (“decreased”); (3) an initially slow increase, with the increase accelerating by late teens, and a slight decline beginning in early adulthood (“increased”); and (4) consistently lowest levels of sexual risk (“low”). More African Americans were found among the decreased trajectory group; among the low risk group a higher number of youth came from families with parents who spoke a language other than English. The high-risk group had a higher percentage of subjects in non-metropolitan areas and highest alcohol use. Among males, being employed and being in the military were associated with inclusion in the high-risk group. Results have implications for specializing prevention strategies for youth with different patterns of sexual risk.
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This research was supported by Grant #P30 DA016383 from the National Institute of Drug Abuse.
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Appendix
Appendix
Group-based trajectory group model for males and females
Trajectory group | Males | Females |
---|---|---|
Estimate (SE) | ||
High | ||
Intercept | −17.87 (1.26)* | −16.51 (0.88)* |
Linear | 1.87 (0.12)* | 1.77 (0.09)* |
Quadratic | −0.04 (0.002)* | −0.04 (0.002)* |
Decrease | ||
Intercept | −26.34 (3.84)* | −19.78 (4.37)* |
Linear | 2.99 (0.39)* | 2.30 (0.45)* |
Quadratic | −0.08 (0.01)* | −0.06 (0.01)* |
Increase | ||
Intercept | −39.47 (1.94)* | −42.03 (1.55)* |
Linear | 3.54 (0.18)* | 3.89 (0.14)* |
Quadratic | −0.07 (0.004)* | −0.09 (0.003)* |
Low | ||
Intercept | 5.14 (3.45) | −59.00 (11.61)* |
Linear | −1.00 (0.33)* | 4.74 (1.03)* |
Quadratic | 0.03 (0.008)* | −0.09 (0.02)* |
Sigma | 1.28 (0.009)* | 1.17 (0.007)* |
Group membership | ||
---|---|---|
Observed (estimated) | ||
High | 38.9% (38.0%) | 42.4% (41.4%) |
Decrease | 12.0% (13.9%) | 6.1% (7.1%) |
Increase | 34.0% (32.8%) | 35.9% (36.1%) |
Low | 15.1% (15.3%) | 15.6% (15.4%) |
BIC | −34394.25 | −34020.49 |
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Murphy, D.A., Brecht, ML., Herbeck, D.M. et al. Trajectories of HIV Risk Behavior from Age 15 to 25 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample. J Youth Adolescence 38, 1226–1239 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-008-9323-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-008-9323-6