Introduction
Methods
Participants and study design
Lifestyle, socio–economic history and anthropometry
Statistical analysis
Development of large WC and high BMI
Results
Proportion of men in WC < 94 cm category at baseline moved up to WC 94–101 cm category at follow-up | Proportion of men in WC < 94 cm category at baseline moved up to WC ≥ 102 cm category at follow-up | Proportion of men in WC 94–101 cm category at baseline moved down to WC < 94 cm category at follow-up | Proportion of men in WC 94–101 cm category at baseline moved up to WC ≥ 102 cm category at follow-up | Proportion of men in WC ≥ 102 cm category at baseline moved down to WC < 94 cm category at follow-up | Proportion of men in WC ≥ 102 cm category at baseline moved down to WC 94–101 cm category at follow-up | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mediterranean cities (REF) | 23.2 | 1.1 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 11.4 |
NW European cities | 20.2 | 2.9 | 12.0 | 20.8 | 1.0 | 8.4 |
NE European cities | 23.3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 23.5 | 1.0 | 8.0 |
Group differences |
P = 0.543 |
P = 0.034
|
P = 0.024
|
P < 0.001
|
P = 0.257 |
P = 0.217 |
Cities from non-transition region (REF) | 21.3 | 2.3 | 12.6 | 16.9 | 0.6 | 9.7 |
Cities from transition region | 23.3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 23.5 | 1.0 | 8.0 |
Group differences |
P = 0.559 |
P = 0.029
|
P = 0.010
|
P = 0.005
|
P = 0.650 |
P = 0.343 |
Proportion of men in BMI < 25 kg/m2 category at baseline moved up to “BMI 25–29 kg/m2 category” at follow-up | Proportion of men in BMI < 25 kg/m2 category at baseline moved up to BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 category at follow-up | Proportion of men in BMI 25–29 kg/m2 category at baseline moved down to BMI < 25 kg/m2 category at follow-up | Proportion of men in BMI 25–29 kg/m2 category at baseline moved up to BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 category at follow-up | Proportion of men in BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 category at baseline moved down to BMI < 25 kg/m2 category at follow-up | Proportion of men in BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 category at baseline moved down to BMI 25–29 kg/m2 category at follow-up | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mediterranean cities (REF) | 25.3 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 8.9 |
NW European cities | 17.6 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 8.7 |
NE European cities | 19.1 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
Group differences |
P = 0.136 |
P = 0.263 |
P = 0.020
|
P = 0.780 |
P = 0.368 |
P = 0.875 |
Cities from non-transition region (REF) | 20.3 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 8.8 |
Cities from transition region | 19.1 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
Group differences |
P = 0.816 |
P = 0.503 |
P = 0.375 |
P = 0.607 |
P = 1.000 |
P = 0.700 |
n
| Baseline mean (SD) of WC | Absolute (%) change | ANOVA for differences between cities and groups of cities in different regions | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | ||||
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | 267 | 99.0 (9.5) | +0.22 (+0.25) | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 351 | 96.2 (9.5) | +0.85 (+0.97) | +0.63 | ||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 381 | 96.2 (11.2) | +2.02 (+2.18) | +1.80* | +0.62 | |
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 356 | 99.9 (10.5) | +0.65 (+0.69) | +0.43 | ||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | 312 | 97.6 (9.8) | +0.84 (+0.90) | +0.62 | ||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | 310 | 98.5 (10.2) | +2.22 (+2.36) | +1.99*
| +1.50*
| +1.10*
|
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | 347 | 101 (11.7) | +1.79 (+1.92) | +1.57*
| ||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 296 | 99.3 (13.4) | +2.27 (+2.36) | +2.05*
| ||
a
P < 0.001 |
a
P < 0.001
|
a
P = 0.005 |
n
| Baseline mean (SD) of BMI | Absolute (%) change | ANOVA for differences between cities and groups of cities in different regions | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | ||||
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | 272 | 28.2 (3.7) | −0.02 (−0.08) | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 346 | 27.0 (3.6) | +0.23 (+1.05) | +0.25 | ||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 372 | 27.1 (3.9) | +0.10 (+0.46) | +0.12 | −0.08 | |
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 344 | 27.2 (3.9) | +0.16 (+0.65) | +0.18 | ||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | 300 | 27.6 (3.6) | −0.15 (−0.54) | −0.13 | ||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | 310 | 27.5 (3.8) | +0.56 (+2.10) | +0.57*
| +0.15 | +0.20*
|
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | 347 | 28.7 (4.3) | +0.16 (+0.68) | +0.18 | ||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 299 | 28.5 (5.0) | +0.11 (+0.42) | +0.13 | ||
a
P < 0.001 |
a
P = 0.01 |
a
P = 0.005 |
ANOVA for differences between countries and groups of countries in different regions | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Middle-aged men (40–59 years) | Elderly men (60–79 years) | |||||||
Absolute (%) change (SD) | Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | Absolute (%) change (SD) | Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | |
F-value (P) |
F-value (P) |
F-value (P) |
F-value (P) |
F-value (P) |
F-value (P) | |||
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | −2.6 (8.3) | Referent | Referent | Referent | −3.9 (7.6) | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 0.0 (6.6) |
9.2 (0.002)
a
| −1.1 (6.0) | 3.5 (0.061) | ||||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 1.0 (4.4) |
53.9 (<0.001)
a
|
43.7 (<0.001)
a
| −0.9 (5.1) |
45.4 (<0.001)
a
|
58.2 (<0.001)
a
| ||
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 0.0 (7.1) |
48.6 (<0.001)
a
| −0.6 (8.1) |
36.5 (<0.001)
a
| ||||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | −1.1 (4.4) |
55.7 (<0.001)
a
| −1.5 (5.4) |
38.7 (<0.001)
a
| ||||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | −5.1 (3.9) |
126.4 (<0.001)
a
|
15.5 (<0.001)
a
| 0.01 (0.915) | −5.3 (5.7) |
57.8 (<0.001)
a
|
16.8 (<0.001)
a
| 0.964 (0.326) |
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | −5.5 (6.3) | 0.4 (0.501) | −7.6 (6.1) |
12.0 (<0.001)
a
| ||||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 1.1 (4.9) |
115.7 (<0.001)
a
| 0.4 (4.4) |
104.2 (<0.001)
a
|
OR (95 % CI) for development of large WCa
| OR (95 % CI) for development of high BMIa
| |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New occurrence of WC ≥ 102 cm | Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | New occurrence of BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2
| Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | |
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | 4.9 % | Referent | Referent | Referent | 6.6 % | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 6.6 % | 1.71 (0.82–3.77) P = 0.163 | 5.5 % | 0.99 (0.48–2.08) P = 0.982 | ||||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 11.8 % |
2.59 (1.32–5.50)
P = 0.008
|
1.58 (1.05–2.44)
P = 0.033
| 5.9 % | 1.20 (0.59–2.52) 0.619 | 0.98 (0.62–1.57) P = 0.929 | ||
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 11.0 % |
2.35 (1.21–4.96) 0.016
| 5.2 % | 0.90 (0.44–1.88) P = 0.770 | ||||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | 6.7 % | 1.25 (0.57–2.84)P = 0.581 | 4.7 % | 0.80 (0.36–1.78) P = 0.580 | ||||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | 15.5 % |
3.55 (1.80–7.54)
P <0.001
|
2.28 (1.49–3.54)
P <0.001
|
1.60 (1.21–2.12)
P = 0.001
| 7.4 % | 1.34 (0.65–2.84) 0.427 | 1.05 (0.65–1.73) P = 0.833 | 1.17 (0.81–1.67) P = 0.408 |
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | 13.0 % |
3.10 (1.50–6.85) 0.003
| 6.9 % | 1.21 (0.56–2.66) P = 0.624 | ||||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 10.8 % |
2.43 (1.19–5.33)
P = 0.019
| 3.7 % | 0.68 (0.28–1.58) P = 0.367 |
Middle aged men (40–59 years) | Elderly men (60–79 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New occurrence of WC ≥ 102 cm | OR (95 % CI) for development of large WCa
| New occurrence of WC ≥ 102 cm | OR (95 % CI) for development of large WCa
| |||||
Between individual cities | Between Regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | Between individual cities | Between regions | Between Transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | |||
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | 6.0 % | Referent | Referent | Referent | 4.0 % | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 5.4 % | 0.86 (0.28–2.79) P = 0.790 | 7.4 % | 2.94 (1.05–9.76) P = 0.054 | ||||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 9.0 % | 1.35 (0.49–4.08) P = 0.573 | 1.69 (0.89–3.40) P = 0.123 | 13.7 % |
3.89 (1.52–12.04)
P = 0.009
| 1.45 (0.84–2.58) P = 0.194 | ||
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 13.2 % | 2.50 (0.99–7.24) P = 0.067 | 9.3 % | 2.16 (0.81–6.79) P = 0.148 | ||||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | 4.7 % | 0.99 (0.29–3.39) P = 0.989 | 8.2 % | 1.14 (0.38–3.88) P = 0.820 | ||||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | 12.9 % | 2.70 (1.04–7.90) P = 0.050 | 1.86 (0.97–3.74) P = 0.069 | 1.43 (0.90–2.24) P = 0.123 | 17.0 % |
3.47 (1.30–11.14)
P = 0.021
|
2.48 (1.42–4.49)
P = 0.002
|
1.73 (1.20–2.48)
P = 0.003
|
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | 9.8 % | 1.65 (0.59–5.16) 0.358 | 15.8 % |
4.95 (1.79–16.23)
P = 0.004
| ||||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 9.3 % | 1.64 (0.54–5.37) P = 0.389 | 11.8 % |
3.08 (1.13–9.97)
P = 0.039
|
Middle aged men (40–59 years) | Elderly men (60–79 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New occurrence of BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2
| OR (95 % CI) for development of high BMIa
| New occurrence of BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2
| OR (95 % CI) for development of high BMIa
| |||||
Between individual cities | Between regions | Between transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | Between individual cities | Between regions | Between transitional status (non-transitional/transitional) | |||
Mediterranean: Santiago de Compostela, Spain | 7.7 % | Referent | Referent | Referent | 5.8 % | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Mediterranean: Florence, Italy | 6.8 % | 0.91 (0.33–2.67)P = 0.861 | 4.5 % | 0.91 (0.32–2.63) P = 0.849 | ||||
NW Europe: Leuven, Belgium | 4.7 % | 0.77 (0.25–2.35)P = 0.635 | 0.93 (0.48–1.85)P = 0.844 | 6.7 % | 1.43 (0.54–4.08) P = 0.484 | 0.96 (0.50–1.89) P = 0.904 | ||
NW Europe: Malmö, Sweden | 6.7 % | 0.94 (0.34–2.71)0.906 | 4.1 % | 0.76 (0.27–2.24) P = 0.613 | ||||
NW Europe: Manchester, UK | 4.7 % | 0.72 (0.22–2.29)P = 0.577 | 4.6 % | 0.78 (0.25–2.50) P = 0.673 | ||||
NE Europe: Łódź Poland | 3.4 % | 0.52 (0.13–1.80) P = 0.312 | 0.84 (0.41–1.76)P = 0.646 | 0.89 (0.49–1.57) P = 0.693 | 9.8 % | 1.84 (0.68–5.39) P = 0.240 | 1.14 (0.57–2.32) P = 0.718 | 1.33 (0.82–2.14)P = 0.247 |
NE Europe: Szeged, Hungary | 7.4 % | 1.35 (0.45–4.22) 0.596 | 6.5 % | 0.98 (0.32–3.14) P = 0.967 | ||||
NE Europe: Tartu, Estonia | 3.3 % | 0.58 (0.14–2.15) P = 0.425 | 3.9 % | 0.70 (0.21–2.31) P = 0.556 |