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Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040

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Abstract

Objectives

The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype.

Methods

Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006–2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years.

Results

The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology.

Conclusions

As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

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Acknowledgments

Dr. Meza acknowledges the support of the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan. Mr. Gaber was partially supported by a Dean’s award from the School of Public Health, University of Michigan and the Karmanos Cancer Institute (2P30CA022453-34).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA

    Charles Gaber & Rafael Meza

  2. Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights SPH-II 5533, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2029, USA

    Rafael Meza

  3. Department of Oncology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, 4100 John R MM04EP, Detroit, MI, 48201, USA

    Julie J. Ruterbusch & Michele L. Cote

  4. Karmanos Cancer Institute, Population Studies and Disparities Research Program, Detroit, MI, USA

    Michele L. Cote

Authors
  1. Charles Gaber
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  2. Rafael Meza
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  3. Julie J. Ruterbusch
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  4. Michele L. Cote
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rafael Meza.

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This article does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors. For this type of study, formal consent is not required.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Gaber, C., Meza, R., Ruterbusch, J.J. et al. Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040. J. Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities 4, 895–903 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-016-0292-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-016-0292-2

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