Information for this paper was obtained from various sources, which included initial searches of databases including Medline, PubMed, and Econlit. However, the emerging nature of this subject does not lend itself to systematic literature review methods. Works relating to the content of this article were therefore identified from the authors' own experience, through consultation with others involved in such work, and by manually searching reference lists of well-respected publications on
SeriesMaking HIV prevention programmes work
Introduction
The preceding papers in this Series have reviewed the state-of-the-art of knowledge in biomedical,1 behavioural,2 and structural approaches3 to HIV prevention. Here, we ask how this information can be used and what additional information is needed to optimise national HIV prevention programmes. Optimisation of a national response to prevent the transmission of HIV requires not only information, but also knowledge of how to use the data to improve the response. Focusing on developing countries, we imagine how managers of national HIV prevention programmes could reassess and prioritise available resources to improve the performance of national prevention efforts. We identify four key areas on which time and attention should be focused: improvement of targeting, selection, and delivery of prevention efforts, and optimisation of funding.
In no country will the benefits of a programme manager allocating additional time to any one of the areas identified be the same. Typically, the greatest benefit of additional time invested will result from improving the dimension that is currently furthest from optimum. However, the costs and feasibility of improving performance in that dimension will also affect the decision. For example, in a country where the current level of funding represents only a small fraction of the budget needed, focus should be given primarily to securing additional funds. Similarly, in a country with adequate funding but gross inefficiency in the delivery of services, focus should be placed on improving management and monitoring.
Section snippets
Making decisions in the real world
One of our challenges is confronting the chasm that exists between the academic world, in which optimisation is normally based on controlled trials that report results with 95% certainty, and the real world, where uncertainty reigns. In the ideal, evidence-based world, a programme manager operates with perfect information, which includes at least the following: a known, fixed budget; detailed, historical data for levels and distribution of HIV incidence and risk behaviours; cost-effectiveness
Targeting of prevention interventions
The effectiveness of any prevention programme depends on the extent to which effective interventions reach people at high risk of contracting the virus. HIV is spread in a very heterogeneous way worldwide. Even within countries, the risk of contracting and transmitting HIV varies widely. For instance, the risk of HIV infection varies greatly with age in all countries, but countries are very different with respect to the relative risk of infection in specific subpopulations versus the general
Selection of prevention interventions
The effectiveness of any prevention programme also depends on the selection of the interventions included in it. Most new HIV infections in adolescents and adults are transmitted via sexual intercourse, and to a lesser extent through the sharing of needles among injecting drug users.24 Abstention, having safe sexual intercourse, or having unsafe sexual intercourse is usually an individual decision, but that decision is clearly affected by peers, family, community, and context.2, 3 Prevention
Delivery of prevention interventions
Even the best designed programme, with the ideal mix of interventions focused on the right populations, cannot effectively prevent HIV infection if implemented poorly. As the manager of any small company knows, there are potential gains associated with an inefficiently implemented programme when its performance improves and produces more from the same amount of resources; the size of such gains depends obviously on the size of the inefficiencies corrected. The private market is often ruthlessly
Optimisation of funding
The question of what the adequate level of funding is for an HIV prevention programme in a particular country is perhaps the most fundamental question that a programme manager must address. A programme manager in Botswana can justify needing more funding than a programme manager in Trinidad and Tobago because the epidemic is larger and less concentrated in Botswana than in Trinidad and Tobago, despite having similar sized populations and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the fundamental
Conclusions
The past 25 years of HIV prevention have been characterised by islands of success in a sea of failure. Millions of people would not be newly infected each year if that were not the case. Our challenge now is to start doing more prevention, better. We must also ensure that the situation improves each year as researchers develop more effective interventions, programme evaluators learn about what works best, where, and for whom, and managers learn how to deliver services more efficiently. Although
Search strategy and selection criteria
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