Trends in Parasitology
OpinionHot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands
Section snippets
Evidence for possible causes of malaria resurgences
Since the early 1980s, there have been massive percentage increases in P. falciparum burden at African highland locations (Fig. 1). Possible causes are discussed below.
The most parsimonious explanation
The evidence that climate change is the most significant factor in recent malaria resurgences in the highlands of East Africa is at best equivocal, at worst unfounded. At five of the seven sites (Kericho, Kabale, Gikonko, Muhanga and Amani), climate has not changed significantly. At the two other sites, where malaria up-surges were most marked (Debre Zeit and Analaroa), temperatures have shown significant long-term increases; however, the collapse of vector control at these sites shows equally
Policy considerations
The threat from climate change is not a top priority for African nations faced with a contemporary resurgence in malaria. Our hope is that the research reviewed here might help focus attention on the real and immediate causes of these malaria resurgences, rather than fuel further speculation on the future epidemiological impacts of climate change. Although predictions of the impact of forecast climate surfaces [e.g. the high scenario from the HadCM2 experiment described on the Intergovernmental
Acknowledgements
S.I.H. is supported as an Advanced Training Fellow by the Wellcome Trust (#056642) and is affiliated to the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, PO Box 43640, Nairobi, Kenya. S.E.R. is a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Senior Research Fellow (#341). J.C. is supported by the Dept for International Development, UK. G.D.S. is supported by the US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, Ft Detrick, MA, USA. The opinions and assertions contained
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