Are we adapting to climate change?

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Abstract

Human systems will have to adapt to climate change. Understanding of the magnitude of the adaptation challenge at a global scale, however, is incomplete, constrained by a limited understanding of if and how adaptation is taking place. Here we develop and apply a methodology to track and characterize adaptation action; we apply these methods to the peer-reviewed, English-language literature. Our results challenge a number of common assumptions about adaptation while supporting others: (1) Considerable research on adaptation has been conducted yet the majority of studies report on vulnerability assessments and natural systems (or intentions to act), not adaptation actions. (2) Climate change is rarely the sole or primary motivator for adaptation action. (3) Extreme events are important adaptation stimuli across regions. (4) Proactive adaptation is the most commonly reported adaptive response, particularly in developed nations. (5) Adaptation action is more frequently reported in developed nations, with middle income countries underrepresented and low-income regions dominated by reports from a small number of countries. (6) There is limited reporting on adaptations being developed to take advantage of climate change or focusing on women, elderly, or children.

Research highlights

▶Reporting on adaptation actions is limited but increasing. ▶ Adaptations are most likely to be stimulated by climatic variability and are often mainstreamed and proactive. ▶ Long-term, proactive adaptation planning is more likely to be undertaken by government. ▶ The global distribution of adaptation reports is inequitable. ▶ Adaptation profiles differ between high and low income countries.

Introduction

Evidence that the climate is changing is overwhelming (Smith et al., 2009, Fussel, 2009). Historic emissions commit the earth to some degree of future warming regardless of mitigation progress, and will probably surpass the 2C threshold held by many as indicative of ‘dangerous’ interference (Ramanathan and Feng, 2008, Parry et al., 2009, Smith et al., 2009). Given failure to create an international framework for stabilizing emissions, 4C of global warming by 2100 looks increasing likely (Parry et al., 2009, Adger and Barnett, 2009). Adaptation is unavoidable.

The realization of the inevitability of climate change has reinvigorated adaptation research, long the poor cousin of mitigation (Pielke et al., 2007). This work demonstrates that opportunities for adaptation are available, feasible, and can be mainstreamed into existing policy priorities (Stern, 2006, Karl et al., 2009, Costello et al., 2009, Garnaut, 2008). Importantly, the challenge of adaptation is not necessarily new, as humans have lived with climatic variability for a long time and developed management decisions to cope with this variability (Dovers, 2009, Smit and Wandel, 2006, Burton et al., 2002). Despite these opportunities, concerns have been noted regarding the ability of human systems to adapt due to the scale of projected impacts, existing vulnerabilities, and insufficient attention to adaptation (Adger and Barnett, 2009). Even in developed nations, extreme events have highlighted significant deficiencies in prevention and preparedness (Ebi and Semenza, 2008, Hulme, 2003, Ford et al., 2010b). Adaptive capacity will not necessarily translate to adaptation (O’Brien et al., 2006, Adger and Vincent, 2005, Repetto, 2009).

Understanding of the magnitude of the adaptation challenge, however, is incomplete. Is adaptation already taking place? Who is adapting, to what, and how? Does adaptation differ between and within nations, regions, sectors? Are adaptations consistent with the risks posed by climate change? We have snapshots on these questions. IPCC AR4 provides selected examples of adaptation in practice, a format employed by national level climate change assessments (Karl et al., 2009, Lemmen et al., 2008, Belanger et al., 2008). Case study research has also documented and examined adaptations being undertaken (Ford et al., 2010). On this basis it is generally understood that some if not enough adaptation is taking place, high income nations are more likely to be adapting than middle and low income nations, the most vulnerable are least likely to adapt, adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone, reactive adaptations are more likely in the absence of government intervention, and it is believed that the more rapid climate change is, the more problematic adaptation will be (Smith et al., 2009, Stern, 2006, IPCC, 2007, World Bank, 2010). It has also been noted that our limited understanding of vulnerability and adaptation precludes developing adaptation interventions, with more research integrating socio-economic and climate scenarios needed (Moss et al., 2010, World Bank, 2010).

Our ability to evaluate these assumptions and monitor adaptation progress, however, is constrained by an absence of measurable outcomes or indicators from which to judge if and how adaptation is occurring (Burton and May, 2004, Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2007). Mitigation is a bounded problem that can be assessed with reference to the global concentration of greenhouse gases. Adaptation is messier, concerned with adjustments in human systems at different scales (local to global) and by different actors (e.g. government, individuals, households, etc.) and which may only be partially developed in response to climatic stimuli (Berkhout, 2005, Dovers and Hezri, 2010). Progress on adaptation is therefore rarely measured, arguably contributing towards the reluctance of governments to invest in adaptation interventions (Burton et al., 2002, Pielke, 1998).

Here we develop and apply a preliminary and exploratory systematic literature review methodology to track adaptation action globally. We use adaptation reporting in the English peer-reviewed literature as a proxy sample or indicator of adaptation action, identifying, characterizing, and comparing if and how adaptation is occurring. This enables us to re-examine commonly held assumptions on global adaptation while recognizing that many adaptations are undocumented or documented outside of the scientific literature. Peer reviewed studies however, represent a widely accepted and scientifically rigorous source for rapid and standardized assessment, forming the basis of numerous scientific syntheses (IPCC, 2007, MA, 2006, Arnell, 2010, Tompkins et al., in press).

Section snippets

Methodology

We use a systematic literature review approach to assess if how and adaptation is occurring at a global level. Systematic literature reviews involve reviewing documents according to clearly formulated questions and using systematic and explicit methods to select and critically appraise relevant research (Petticrew and Roberts, 2006, The Cochrane Collaboration, 2008). This approach, while common in the health sciences, has not been extensively applied to environmental and climate change studies

Reporting on adaptation actions is limited but increasing

Over half of all 1741 documents reporting on climate change and adaptation focus exclusively on adaptation in natural systems (Fig. 1). Just under half report on human systems, with the majority focusing on assessments of climate change risk, vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity, or conceptual approaches. Only 87 documents fit our inclusion criteria of intentional adaptation actions: 5% of the total or 13% of documents focusing on human systems. We posit several potential reasons for this

Discussion

The majority of research on adaptation in the climate change field has focused on theorizing how human systems might or can adapt to climate change, examined the possibility for adaptation, or created inventories or wish lists of policy entry points (Barnett, 2010). This is reflected in the adaptation related chapters of the IPCC (e.g. chapters 17–19 and regional chapters). Fewer studies have systematically examined if and how adaptation is taking place. Exceptions include Tompkins et al. (in

Conclusion

Reviewing and characterizing the peer reviewed English literature offer a rigorous and standardized means of characterizing what we know about climate change adaptation. IPCC offers a review-based methodology to guide analysis, involving an extensive assessment of current knowledge based on input and review by experts. The merits of the IPCC are widely acknowledged, although the transparency of the process has been questioned: what literature is reviewed by IPCC? What search terms and databases

Acknowledgements

Our thanks to two anonymous reviewers for constructive and insightful comments.

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