Clinical Research
Cardiovascular Risk
Trends in Predicted 10-Year Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Among U.S. Adults From 1999 to 2010

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2013.03.023Get rights and content
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Objectives

The objective of this study was to examine trends in predicted 10-year risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) from 1999 to 2000 and from 2009 to 2010 among adults in the United States.

Background

Examining trends in predicted risk for CHD and CVD may offer insights into the direction of cardiovascular health.

Methods

Data from 7,751 fasting participants, ages 30 to 74 years, of 6 consecutive 2-year cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. Predicted 10-year risk for CHD and CVD was calculated using risk equations derived from data from the Framingham Heart Study.

Results

Mean predicted 10-year risk for CHD was 7.2% during 1999 to 2000 and 6.5% during 2009 to 2010 (p for linear trend = 0.005), and for CVD it was 9.2% during 1999 to 2000 and 8.7% during 2009 to 2010 (p for linear trend = 0.152). Mean predicted risk for CHD and CVD declined significantly among participants ages 40 to 49 years, 50 to 59 years, 60 to 74 years, and among women. Mean predicted risk for CHD declined significantly among men and whites but nonsignificantly among Mexican Americans (p for linear trend = 0.067). Mean predicted risk increased nonsignificantly among African Americans for both CHD (p for linear trend = 0.063) and CVD (p for linear trend = 0.059). Of the modifiable cardiovascular risk factors included in the risk equations, favorable trends were noted for mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, mean concentrations of total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking status. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus worsened.

Conclusions

Predicted 10-year risk for CHD improved modestly. Reversing the seemingly rising trend in risk among African-American adults should be a high priority.

Key Words

cardiovascular diseases
coronary artery disease
risk
risk factors
trends

Abbreviations and Acronyms

CHD
coronary heart disease
CVD
cardiovascular disease
DBP
diastolic blood pressure
HDLC
high-density lipoprotein cholesterol
SBP
systolic blood pressure

Cited by (0)

The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dr. Ford has reported that he has no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.