On the number and shape of developmental/life-course violence, aggression, and delinquency trajectories: A state-of-the-art review
Highlights
► A systematic and exhaustive search of several academic databases identified 105 studies that used latent trajectory modeling. ► The number of trajectory groups ranges from 2-7 groups. ► Most studies report between 3 and 4 groups, loosely including life-course persistent or chronic offenders. ► There is substantial variability in the number and shape of trajectory groups. ► Trajectories are largely consistent with Moffitt's taxonomy.
Introduction
Longitudinal research designs are broadly acknowledged as the “gold standard” of methodological designs that aim to establish cause and effect relationships (Pearl, 2000, Robins, 1997). These designs have more recently been incorporated into the study of criminal behavior (Piquero, 2008, Sampson and Laub, 1993). Use of longitudinal designs in the criminological literature is especially appropriate because violence, aggression, and delinquency have been demonstrated to vary substantially over the life-course (Farrington, 1986, Moffitt, 1993, Moffitt et al., 2001, Shannon, 1988, Shannon, 1991, Tracy et al., 1990, West and Farrington, 1973, West and Farrington, 1977). In particular, most crime and delinquency manifests in late childhood and early adolescence, and individuals tend to desist from criminal participation in young adulthood (Farrington, 1986). Therefore, the measurement of crime as a dichotomous variable (e.g., “offender” versus “non-offender”) omits a substantial quantity of data regarding the patterning, frequency, and severity of criminal offending over the life-course.
In an attempt to more fully describe the longitudinal patterning of criminal behavior, the latent group-based trajectory analytic technique has been used to categorize individuals based upon common attributes (e.g., levels of violence/crime over time) (Jones and Nagin, 2007, Jones et al., 2001, Nagin, 2005, Nagin and Land, 1993). Grouping participants with homogeneous patterns of offending provides a more complete picture of the prevalence, frequency, and consistency of criminal offending. Group-based trajectory models are finite mixture models, which use single- and multiple-group model structures (Nagin, 2005). Finite mixture models (also known as latent class models) represent the heterogeneity in a finite number of unmeasured (latent) classes. The trajectory groups that are created are derived from maximum likelihood estimation, meaning that individuals were classified into mutually-exclusive trajectory groups using the “maximum probability” procedure (Nagin, 2005). In other words, participants are assigned to groups in which they have the greatest probability of membership (e.g., greater than .70). Longitudinal data including more than two waves of data collection, with identical measures of offending over time is required to utilize these trajectory procedures.
An earlier literature review of criminological studies employing the group-based trajectory methodology found that most studies report between three and five distinct trajectories of criminal behavior (Piquero, 2008). In this prior review of 80 studies on trajectories of crime, Piquero (2008) found substantial support for the “age-crime” curve (e.g., the “aging out” of criminal activity with age) (Farrington, 1986), and varying profiles of criminal behavior across populations. These findings have since been replicated in subpopulations of race/ethnicity, and across gender groups (Broidy et al., 2003, Coté et al., 2001, Coté et al., 2002a, Coté et al., 2002b, D'Unger et al., 2002, Ferguson and Horwood, 2002, Jennings et al., 2010a, Maldonado-Molina et al., 2010a, Maldonado-Molina et al., 2009, Moffitt et al., 2001, Odgers et al., 2008 Piquero, Brame, & Moffitt, 2005). Recognizing this evidence, the purpose of the current study is to provide a state-of-the-art, comprehensive meta-review of the literature published to date using the latent group-based trajectory methodology to study violence, aggression, and delinquency.
Section snippets
Moffitt's taxonomy
Many studies have supported the existence of the “age-crime” curve, which displays the population-level crime trends across the life-course (Blumstein and Cohen, 1979, Blumstein and Cohen, 1987, Blumstein et al., 1988, Blumstein et al., 1986 Cohen and Land, 1987, Farrington, 1986, Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990, Greenberg, 1985, Hirschi and Gottfredson, 1983, Hirschi and Gottfredson, 1985, Nagin and Paternoster, 1991, Nagin and Farrington, 1992, Piquero et al., 2003, Piquero et al., 2007,
Conclusion & research needs
Our narrative and comprehensive meta-review has seemingly answered the two central research questions regarding trajectory-based literature that it set out to accomplish. Specifically, the number of trajectory groups of violence, aggression, and/or delinquency range from 2 groups to 7 groups. Within this range in number of trajectory groups identified, 4 groups are most prevalent followed by 3 groups. There appears to be a series of factors that largely contribute to the variability in the
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