Failure to anticipate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 after the containment phase seriously threatens many health systems.
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We have developed a method for measuring how seroprevalence affects the deconfinement strategy in France.
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Seroprevalence must be at least 50% before confinement constraints can be relaxed.
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Deconfinement should be progressive in order to avoid rebound of the epidemic.
Summary
A new virus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread world-wide since December 2019, probably affecting millions of people and killing thousands. Failure to anticipate the spread of the virus now seriously threatens many health systems. We have designed a model for predicting the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France, which is based on seroprevalence and makes it possible to anticipate the deconfinement strategy.