Elsevier

Journal of Infection

Volume 81, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 318-356
Journal of Infection

Letter to the Editor
The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence is the key factor for deconfinement in France

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.031Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Failure to anticipate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 after the containment phase seriously threatens many health systems.

  • We have developed a method for measuring how seroprevalence affects the deconfinement strategy in France.

  • Seroprevalence must be at least 50% before confinement constraints can be relaxed.

  • Deconfinement should be progressive in order to avoid rebound of the epidemic.

Summary

A new virus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread world-wide since December 2019, probably affecting millions of people and killing thousands. Failure to anticipate the spread of the virus now seriously threatens many health systems. We have designed a model for predicting the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France, which is based on seroprevalence and makes it possible to anticipate the deconfinement strategy.

Keywords

SARS-CoV-2
seroprevalence
statistical model
deconfinement

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