Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

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Abstract

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.

Introduction

More than 50 years have passed since the first Delphi experiment took place and more than 40 since the first article came to light describing its use and procedure. Since then, the Delphi Method has become a widely used and recognised instrument to make predictions and help decision-making. In this process of diffusion it has gone through several different stages since its birth. From the first stage of secrecy that accompanied its genesis with military aims, it has advanced through successive phases of novelty, popularity, criticism and re-examination, until reaching the current phase of continual but relatively infrequent use, in which it has remained since the 80s [1].

Throughout these years, the Delphi Method has broadened its fields of application and has been the object of fierce criticism and numerous evaluations, in which its weaknesses and strengths have been highlighted, as well as its potential. It is possibly the best known forecasting technique with its own name, based on the opinion of experts, and about which most has been written, but is it still valid? Is it still being used for academic and professional purposes or does it now form part of history? Has it overcome its weaknesses? What has been learned throughout these years?

In this article we will note some answers to these questions, paying particular attention to the use of this technique in social sciences and also explaining some recent applications run by the author, which will serve to compare the contributions of other authors and to present possible fields of development and application for the technique.

Section snippets

The Delphi method

At the end of the 40s, researchers at the RAND Corporation (Santa Monica, California) started to investigate the scientific use of expert opinion. Studies were published on the superiority of group opinion over individual [2] and on the justification of expert opinion in inexact sciences and its scientific use [3]. The Delphi method, with all its defining characteristics, was first used at the headquarters of this corporation as part of a military defence project, which for security reasons was

Evaluation of the Delphi method

The Delphi method was quickly accepted and spread rapidly because it provided valuable solutions to problems inherent in the traditional group opinion based on direct interaction: a reduction in the influence of some undesirable psychological effects among the participants (inhibition, dominant personalities, etc.), selective feedback of the relevant information, more extensive consideration thanks to the repetition, statistical results, flexible methodology and simple execution.

However, the

Validity of the Delphi method

To evaluate the historical and current validity of the Delphi method we can use the publications carried out on this area over time as a reference.

There have been various studies reviewing the literature on this area, but of particular note is that carried out by Gupta and Clarke [28], who carried out an intensive search and classification of the articles published between 1975 and 1994, distinguishing methodological articles from those of application, and those in which the Delphi method

Some recent applications in social science

In this section we are going to present a summary of some of our recent experiences within the area of social sciences, carried out by external and professional request, which contain some relatively rare characteristics compared with other Delphi studies published (due to their scope of application, methodology or size). These studies show how this technique can be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied

Conclusions and lessons learned

By searching through and reviewing the literature, we have been able to confirm that the Delphi method continues to be used and is a valid instrument for forecasting and supporting decision-making.

The comparisons made to date with other techniques that share its scope and conditions of action do not provide decisive findings either in favour of or against the Delphi method, although comparisons with statistical groups and with classic groups using direct interaction do show results that are, in

Acknowledgments

The author would like to acknowledge and thank the work of the IABE team that carried out the studies performed for IDESCAT; Jesús Matey, Vicente Ruíz and Oskar Villarreal, as well as the work by those responsible for these studies on the part of IDESCAT itself, namely Alex Costa and Josep María Bas, and also the Vice-Minister of the Universities of the Basque Country, Jon Barrutia, who took part in designing and implementing the third study on the University Organization Act.

Jon Landeta is a graduate in Economic and Business Sciences, Doctor of Economic and Business Sciences (University of the Basque Country, 1992), with the thesis “Subjective information for decision-making: the Delphi method”. Full professor of the University of the Basque Country since 1987 and Director of the Institute of Applied Business Economics of this university (www.ehu.es/ieae) since 1998. He also runs the management magazine "Cuadernos de Gestión" (www.ehu.es/cuadernosdegestion) and the

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    Jon Landeta is a graduate in Economic and Business Sciences, Doctor of Economic and Business Sciences (University of the Basque Country, 1992), with the thesis “Subjective information for decision-making: the Delphi method”. Full professor of the University of the Basque Country since 1987 and Director of the Institute of Applied Business Economics of this university (www.ehu.es/ieae) since 1998. He also runs the management magazine "Cuadernos de Gestión" (www.ehu.es/cuadernosdegestion) and the Master programme in Business Administration for Executives of the University of the Basque Country (www.ehu.es/gestion.html). He has carried out several Delphi studies, both academic and professional, and has published two books: El Método Delphi. Una técnica de previsión para la incertidumbre (The Delphi Method. A forecasting technique for uncertainty), published by Ariel, Barcelona, 1999 and Dirección Estratégica de los Recursos Humanos (Strategic Human Resource Management), published by Pirámide, Madrid, 2001, in addition to numerous articles and conferences on forecasting, strategy and human resources.

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