Elsevier

Urology

Volume 83, Issue 4, April 2014, Pages 869-874
Urology

Oncology
Biopsy Criteria for Determining Appropriateness for Active Surveillance in the Modern Era

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.urology.2013.12.054Get rights and content

Objective

To evaluate algorithms to predict insignificant prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy (RP).

Methods

Five hundred and fifty men (410 Caucasian, 100 African American [AA], and 40 others) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level <10 ng/dL, T1c, 12-core biopsy, and biopsy Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 were categorized into training and validation sets. Six biopsy algorithms were tested for predicting insignificant (0.5 cm3, organ confined, and Gleason score ≤6) cancer at RP. Cancers incorrectly predicted to be insignificant were ranked into 4 groups of increasing aggressiveness.

Results

Original (Gleason score ≤6, PSA density ≤0.15, ≤2 positive cores, and maximum core involvement ≤50%) and modified Epstein criteria (Gleason score ≤6, PSA density ≤0.15, ≤2 positive cores, and unilateral cancer) had the highest negative predictive values—correct classification of insignificant cancer. Among cancers predicted to be insignificant in Caucasians, 29.9% cases using the original and 27% cases using the modified Epstein criteria had significant cancer at RP. However, more adverse findings at RP were misclassified as insignificant in only 3.5% and 2.2% of cases using the original and modified Epstein criteria, respectively. Of cancers predicted insignificant in AA men, 54.1% cases using the original and 51.6% cases using the modified Epstein criteria were misclassified as insignificant. Dominant anterior tumors were seen in 117 Caucasian (28.5%) and 44 AA men (44%).

Conclusion

The Epstein criteria maintain their accuracy in the modern era with extended biopsy sampling. The negative predictive values are lower in AA men, in part due to higher frequency of anterior tumors, where multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging should be recommended in AAs considering surveillance.

Section snippets

Materials and Methods

Consecutive African American (AA) men (n = 100) with preoperative serum PSA level <10 ng/mL, biopsy Gleason score ≤6, stage T1c, and 12-core sampling who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) from 2004 to 2012 were selected. Four hundred and fifty consecutive men (410 Caucasian and 40 others) with identical criteria were selected from 2010 to 2012. Although a slightly different period from when AAs were selected to obtain a large number of AA men for analysis, clinical and pathologic assessment

Results

Preoperative data are summarized in Table 2 and largely showed no difference between training and validation cohorts. We first tested in a multivariate regression analysis the negative predictive value (NPV) of PSA (P = .02) and PSAD (P <.001) because they are highly related, by comparing which measure had the fewest and least advanced cases misclassified as insignificant. Because PSAD was superior to PSA, PSAD was included in all algorithms, a similar finding to our original study.1 Caucasian

Comment

The crux of AS programs is to identify cancers, which, if left untreated, would likely not cause harm to patients. A complicating factor in developing algorithms to predict insignificant cancer is that there is a spectrum of severity in cases defined as “significant cancer.” What is universally accepted as insignificant prostate cancer is organ-confined, Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 disease with dominant tumor nodule volume ≤0.5 cm3.1 The problem with this as the sole classification, is that, for

Conclusions

The Epstein algorithm, either the original or modified criteria that we have now adopted, maintains its accuracy in the modern era of prostate cancer with extended biopsy sampling. Approximately one-half of the tumors incorrectly predicted to be insignificant were anteriorly located, which may not be sampled by a standard 12-core prostate biopsy. Because AAs have more anterior tumors that are hard to sample, multiparamteric MRI should be recommended in AAs considering surveillance. In assessing

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    Financial Disclosure: The authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests.

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