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Rate of weight gain predicts change in physical activity levels: a longitudinal analysis of the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

International Journal of Obesity volume 37, pages 404–409 (2013)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Objective:

To investigate the relationship of body weight and its changes over time with physical activity (PA).

Design:

Population-based prospective cohort study (Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, EPIC-Norfolk, United Kingdom).

Subjects:

A total of 25 639 men and women aged 39–79 years at baseline. PA was self-reported. Weight and height were measured by standard clinical procedures at baseline and self-reported at 18-month and 10-year follow-ups (calibrated against clinical measures). Main outcome measure was PA at the 10-year follow-up.

Results:

Body weight and PA were inversely associated in cross-sectional analyses. In longitudinal analyses, an increase in weight was associated with higher risk of being inactive 10 years later, after adjusting for baseline activity, 18-month activity, sex, baseline age, prevalent diseases, socioeconomic status, education, smoking, total daily energy intake and alcohol intake. Compared with stable weight, a gain in weight of >2 kg per year in the short-, medium- and long-term was consistently and significantly associated with greater likelihood of physical inactivity after 10 years, with the most pronounced effect for long-term weight gain, OR=1.89 (95% CI: 1.30–2.70) in fully adjusted analysis. Weight gain of 0.5–2 kg per year over long-term was substantially associated with physical inactivity after full adjustment, OR=1.26 (95% CI: 1.11–1.41).

Conclusion:

Weight gain (during short-, medium- and long-term) is a significant determinant of future physical inactivity independent of baseline weight and activity. Compared with maintaining weight, moderate (0.5–2 kg per year) and large weight gain (>2 kg per year) significantly predict future inactivity; a potentially vicious cycle including further weight gain, obesity and complications associated with a sedentary lifestyle. On the basis of current predictions of obesity trends, we estimate that the prevalence of inactivity in England would exceed 60% in the year 2020.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to all the volunteers who devoted their valuable time to participate in the EPIC-Norfolk study. We would also like to thank Amit Bhaniani for his assistance with data management. EPIC-Norfolk is financially supported by program grants from Cancer Research Campaign and Medical Research Council with additional support from the Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency and the Wellcome Trust. Rajna Golubic is financially supported by a scholarship from the Gates Cambridge Trust.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, UK

    R Golubic, U Ekelund, K Wijndaele, N J Wareham & S Brage

  2. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    R Luben & K-T Khaw

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  1. R Golubic
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  2. U Ekelund
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  4. R Luben
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  6. N J Wareham
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  7. S Brage
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Correspondence to S Brage.

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Golubic, R., Ekelund, U., Wijndaele, K. et al. Rate of weight gain predicts change in physical activity levels: a longitudinal analysis of the EPIC-Norfolk cohort. Int J Obes 37, 404–409 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2012.58

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