Abstract
Spanish official records of mortality and population during the 21st century are analyzed to determine the age-sex specific crude death rate in the 2020 spring (week 10 to week 21) COVID-19 outbreak.
Age-sex specific cumulative death rates can be modelled by a Poission regression with rate linearly variying with calendar year from which age-sex specific reference value for 2020 are obtained.
Excess death rate increases exponentially with age showing a doubling time [4.1, 4.9]a (female) and [4.8, 5.4]a (male). Age specific infection fatality rate doubling times below age 70 years are reported as [4.7, 8.8]a (female) and [4.8, 6.6]a (male).
Infection fatality rate for people aged more than 80 is discussed in relation to the shares of people living in institutionalized long term care facilities.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No funding.
Author Declarations
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Footnotes
↵a) Electronic mail: olalla{at}us.es; Twitter: @MartinOlalla JM;
Largely revised version. Sex disaggregation is added. Dutch data analyzed in the first version of the manuscript are not analyzed in this version. Historical records 2001-2019 are now analyzed by a Poisson regression with a linearly varying rate. This improves the results for the least populated groups. Some bugs in the database have been corrected. More importantly, in the previous version deaths for the 85-90 group were also assigned to the >90 age group.
Data Availability
All data come from public repositories at Eurostat or National Statistical Institutes.