Background
Objectives
Method
Study design
Setting
Participants
Variables and data sources
Validity of measures
Outcome measures
Study size
Quantitative variables
Statistical methods
Results
Participants and descriptive data
Inter-rater reliability of new measures START and SAPROF
Internal consistency
Construct validity
START-S | START-V | SAPROF | |
---|---|---|---|
SAPROF | +0.810 | −0.781 | 1 |
START-S | 1 | −0.947 | +0.810 |
START-V | −0.947 | 1 | −0.781 |
HCR-H | −0.447 | +0.489 | −0.394 |
HCR-C | −0.686 | +0.652 | −0.775 |
HCR-R | −0.591 | +0.531 | −0.670 |
HCR-dynamic | −0.688 | +0.641 | −0.779 |
HCR total | −0.771 | +0.701 | −0.745 |
S-RAMM-B | −0.241 | +0.288 | −0.168 |
S-RAMM –C | −0.552 | +0.503 | −0.610 |
S-RAMM-F | −0.501 | +0.477 | −0.429 |
S-RAMM-dynamic | −0.593 | +0.554 | −0.575 |
S-RAMM total | −0.546 | +0.583 | −0.546 |
GAF | +0.692 | −0.644 | +0.745 |
PANSS positive | −0.568 | +0.564 | −0.620 |
PANSS negative | −0.573 | +0.461 | −0.598 |
PANSS general | −0.513 | +0.491 | −0.503 |
PANSS total | −0.606 | +0.555 | −0.626 |
PANSS SAR | −0.665 | +0.713 | −0.564 |
DUNDRUM-1 | −0.373 | +0.403 | −0.287 |
DUNDRUM-3 | −0.816 | +0.769 | −0.768 |
DUNDRUM-4 | −0.727 | +0.723 | −0.680 |
Concurrent validity
Prospective study of violence and self harm
Harm to others | Harm to self | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 95% CI of AUC | P | OR | 95% CI of OR | p | AUC | 95% CI of AUC | p | OR | 95% CI of OR | p | |||||
lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | |||||||||
SAPROF* | 0.847 | 0.721 | 0.974 | 0.001 | 0.775 | 0.676 | 0.888 | 0.001 | 0.766 | 0.600 | 0.931 | 0.019 | 0.848 | 0.738 | 0.973 | 0.019 |
START-S* | 0.776 | 0.653 | 0.900 | 0.001 | 0.903 | 0.845 | 0.964 | 0.002 | 0.644 | 0.454 | 0.833 | 0.207 | 0.957 | 0.891 | 1.028 | 0.227 |
START-V | 0.823 | 0.707 | 0.940 | 0.001 | 1.139 | 1.057 | 1.226 | 0.001 | 0.654 | 0.456 | 0.853 | 0.175 | 1.052 | 0.978 | 1.131 | 0.176 |
HCR-H | 0.836 | 0.747 | 0.924 | 0.001 | 1.226 | 1.033 | 1.454 | 0.020 | 0.822 | 0.683 | 0.960 | 0.001 | 1.178 | 0.998 | 1.391 | 0.053 |
HCR-C | 0.794 | 0.693 | 0.951 | 0.001 | 1.530 | 1.186 | 1.974 | 0.001 | 0.814 | 0.617 | 1.0 | 0.001 | 1.603 | 1.116 | 2.303 | 0.011 |
HCR-R | 0.809 | 0.693 | 0.924 | 0.001 | 1.712 | 1.265 | 2.317 | 0.001 | 0.790 | 0.658 | 0.921 | 0.001 | 1.502 | 1.077 | 2.094 | 0.016 |
HCR-dynamic | 0.802 | 0.656 | 0.948 | 0.001 | 1.309 | 1.128 | 1.519 | 0.001 | 0.803 | 0.625 | 0.980 | 0.001 | 1.279 | 1.067 | 1.533 | 0.008 |
HCR-20 total | 0.872 | 0.783 | 0.961 | 0.001 | 1.236 | 1.102 | 1.386 | 0.001 | 0.881 | 0.789 | 0.973 | 0.001 | 1.201 | 1.058 | 1.363 | 0.005 |
S-RAMM-B | 0.766 | 0.636 | 0.895 | 0.002 | 1.488 | 1.154 | 1.918 | 0.002 | 0.655 | 0.459 | 0.852 | 0.172 | 1.248 | 0.939 | 1.659 | 0.126 |
S-RAMM-C | 0.741 | 0.610 | 0.872 | 0.005 | 1.403 | 1.105 | 1.782 | 0.005 | 0.813 | 0.670 | 0.957 | 0.006 | 1.619 | 1.163 | 2.253 | 0.004 |
S-RAMM-F | 0.669 | 0.526 | 0.812 | 0.05 | 1.108 | 0.951 | 1.290 | 0.190 | 0.619 | 0.451 | 0.787 | 0.295 | 1.075 | 0.894 | 1.293 | 0.444 |
S-RAMM dynamic | 0.729 | 0.593 | 0.866 | 0.008 | 1.136 | 1.012 | 1.295 | 0.031 | 0.760 | 0.600 | 0.921 | 0.022 | 1.141 | 0.998 | 1.308 | 0.054 |
S-RAMM total | 0.838 | 0.756 | 0.919 | 0.001 | 1.196 | 1.059 | 1.350 | 0.004 | 0.818 | 0.727 | 0.909 | 0.005 | 1.145 | 1.014 | 1.293 | 0.029 |
GAF* | 0.813 | 0.651 | 0.974 | 0.001 | 0.909 | 0.860 | 0.960 | 0.001 | 0.855 | 0.649 | 1.0 | 0.002 | 0.908 | 0.850 | 0.970 | 0.004 |
PANSS positive | 0.752 | 0.607 | 0.898 | 0.003 | 1.146 | 1.050 | 1.252 | 0.002 | 0.764 | 0.535 | 0.993 | 0.02 | 1.161 | 1.038 | 1.299 | 0.009 |
PANSS negative | 0.639 | 0.488 | 0.791 | 0.106 | 1.060 | 0.985 | 1.141 | 0.119 | 0.656 | 0.472 | 0.840 | 0.170 | 1.057 | 0.961 | 1.163 | 0.256 |
PANSS general | 0.725 | 0.574 | 0.877 | 0.009 | 1.073 | 1.016 | 1.134 | 0.012 | 0.823 | 0.673 | 0.972 | 0.005 | 1.101 | 1.027 | 1.180 | 0.007 |
PANSS total | 0.711 | 0.577 | 0.866 | 0.014 | 1.035 | 1.009 | 1.062 | 0.009 | 0.770 | 0.569 | 0.971 | 0.017 | 1.042 | 1.008 | 1.078 | 0.015 |
PANSS SAR | 0.832 | 0.730 | 0.934 | 0.001 | 1.509 | 1.217 | 1.872 | 0.001 | 0.846 | 0.728 | 0.965 | 0.002 | 1.408 | 1.118 | 1.772 | 0.004 |
DUNDRUM-1 therapeutic security | 0.743 | 0.603 | 0.883 | 0.007 | 1.238 | 1.060 | 1.447 | 0.007 | 0.712 | 0.495 | 0.929 | 0.063 | 1.226 | 1.012 | 1.486 | 0.038 |
DUNDRUM-3 programme completion | 0.832 | 0.727 | 0.937 | 0.001 | 1.294 | 1.097 | 1.525 | 0.002 | 0.750 | 0.596 | 0.904 | 0.028 | 1.184 | 1.003 | 1.396 | 0.046 |
DUNDRUM-4 recovery | 0.728 | 0.605 | 0.853 | 0.011 | 1.226 | 1.029 | 1.461 | 0.023 | 0.713 | 0.557 | 0.905 | 0.043 | 1.227 | 0.977 | 1.540 | 0.079 |
Interactive effects between risk factors and protective factors
Crude data-means(SD) | Marginal means (SE) adjusted for HCR-20-dynamic | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No violence | Violence | ANOVA | No violence | Violence | ||
N = 85 | N = 13 | F/p | F/p | |||
SAPROF | 21.8(6.1) | 13.1(6.3) | 23.3/0.001 | 21.0(0.5) | 18.6(1.4) | 2.5/0.1 |
START-S | 25.2(10.4) | 14.6(9.1) | 12.6/0.001 | 23.8(0.9) | 23.6(2.5) | 0.0/0.9 |
DUNDRUM-3 programme completion | 15.0(6.9) | 22.5(3.9) | 13.4/0.001 | 15.8(0.6) | 17.1(1.7) | 0.5/0.5 |
DUNDRUM-4 recovery | 15.4(6.1) | 20.0(2.8) | 6.6/0.012 | 16.1(0.5) | 15.2(1.4) | 0.4/0.5 |
Crude data – means(SD) | Marginal means (SE) adjusted for HCR-20-dynamic | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No self harm | Self harm | ANOVA | No self harm | Self harm | ||
N = 87 | N = 7 | F/p | F/p | |||
SAPROF | 21.2(6.5) | 14.1(6.4) | 6.9/0.01 | 20.7(0.5) | 20.3(1.8) | 0.1/0.8 |
START-S | 24.3(10.8) | 18.3(10.4) | 1.5/0.2 | 23.5(0.8) | 28.3(3.1) | 2.3/0.1 |
DUNDRUM-3 programme completion | 15.6(7.0) | 21.4(4.5) | 4.7/0.032 | 16.0(0.6) | 15.5(2.1) | 0.1/0.8 |
DUNDRUM-4 recovery | 15.7(5.9) | 21.4(3.5) | 3.7/0.055 | 16.1(0.5) | 15.2(1.8) | 0.2/0.6 |
Item to outcome analysis
Harm to others 13/100 | Harm to self 7/100 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAPROF | AUC | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | p | ||||
ITEMS | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | Upper | lower | upper | ||||||||
SO1 intelligence | .681 | .501 | .860 | .037 | 0.230 | 0.071 | 0.744 | 0.014 | .620 | .410 | .830 | .291 | 0.392 | 0.070 | 1.709 | 0.213 |
SO2 secure attachment in childhood | .590 | .407 | .773 | .297 | 0.473 | 0.227 | 0.984 | 0.045 | .571 | .330 | .813 | .530 | 0.547 | 0.214 | 1.399 | 0.208 |
SO3 empathy | .757 | .618 | .896 | .003 | 0.231 | 0.084 | 0.630 | 0.004 | .723 | .514 | .932 | .050 | 0.293 | 0.084 | 1.025 | 0.055 |
SO4 coping | .743 | .614 | .873 | .005 | 0.187 | 0.059 | 0.593 | 0.004 | .737 | .570 | .904 | .037 | 0.192 | 0.041 | 0.910 | 0.038 |
SO5 self-control | .777 | .642 | .912 | .001 | 0.205 | 0.078 | 0.536 | 0.001 | .757 | .613 | .900 | .024 | 0.260 | 0.079 | 0.853 | 0.026 |
SO6 work | .700 | .565 | .834 | .021 | 0.336 | 0.135 | 0.841 | 0.020 | .648 | .451 | .845 | .195 | 0.476 | 0.164 | 1.369 | 0.168 |
SO7 leisure activities | .786 | .659 | .914 | .001 | 0.194 | 0.069 | 0.542 | 0.002 | .778 | .645 | .911 | .015 | 0.203 | 0.051 | 0.813 | 0.024 |
SO8 financial management | .781 | .637 | .925 | .001 | 0.231 | 0.093 | 0.575 | 0.002 | .557 | .317 | .796 | .619 | 0.231 | 0.093 | 0.575 | 0.002 |
SO9 motivation for treatment | .710 | .541 | .879 | .015 | 0.340 | 0.149 | 0.775 | 0.010 | .682 | .443 | .921 | .110 | 0.394 | 0.137 | 1.129 | 0.083 |
SO10 attitudes towards authority | .749 | .587 | .911 | .004 | 0.264 | 0.117 | 0.596 | 0.001 | .697 | .468 | .926 | .083 | 0.359 | 0.113 | 0.969 | 0.043 |
SO11 life goals | .670 | .525 | .814 | .050 | 0.378 | 0.141 | 1.010 | 0.052 | .618 | .407 | .828 | .301 | 0.551 | 0.117 | 1.713 | 0.303 |
SO12 medication | .760 | .612 | .908 | .003 | 0.255 | 0.102 | 0.635 | 0.003 | .729 | .536 | .922 | .044 | 0.314 | 0.100 | 0.982 | 0.046 |
SO13 social network | .690 | .535 | .845 | .028 | 0.370 | 0.160 | 0.858 | 0.021 | .623 | .432 | .814 | .279 | 0.560 | 0.199 | 1.579 | 0.273 |
SO14 intimate relationship | .535 | .375 | .696 | .683 | .533 | .322 | .744 | .772 | ||||||||
SO15 professional care | .500 | .331 | .669 | 1.000 | .500 | .277 | .723 | 1.000 | ||||||||
SO16 living circumstances | .494 | .326 | .662 | .946 | .495 | .274 | .715 | .961 | ||||||||
SO17 external control | .494 | .326 | .662 | .946 | .495 | .274 | .715 | .961 |
START-S | Harm to others 13/100 | Harm to self 7/100 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ITEMS | AUC | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | p | ||||
STS1 social skills | .665 | .520 | .810 | .056 | 0.496 | 0.230 | 1.070 | 0.074 | .484 | .270 | .698 | .890 | 1.152 | 0.413 | 3.211 | 0.786 |
STS2 relationships | .685 | .539 | .830 | .033 | 0.395 | 0.165 | 0.947 | 0.037 | .496 | .274 | .718 | .972 | 1.056 | 0.388 | 2.872 | 0.915 |
STS3 occupational | .720 | .569 | .871 | .011 | 0.340 | 0.149 | 0.775 | 0.010 | .649 | .458 | .840 | .190 | 0.515 | 0.193 | 1.378 | 0.186 |
STS4 recreational | .729 | .619 | .838 | .008 | 0.331 | 0.142 | 0.773 | 0.011 | 0.599 | .424 | .773 | .385 | 0.669 | 0.241 | 1.855 | 0.440 |
STS5 self-care | .713 | .565 | .860 | .014 | 0.350 | 0.149 | 0.821 | 0.016 | .669 | .463 | .874 | .138 | 0.445 | 0.152 | 1.302 | 0.139 |
STS6 mental state | .692 | .530 | .855 | .026 | 0.365 | 0.151 | 0.884 | 0.026 | .776 | .631 | .922 | .015 | 0.180 | 0.040 | 0.803 | 0.025 |
STS7 emotional state | .622 | .468 | .776 | .157 | 0.586 | 0.273 | 1.255 | 0.169 | .500 | .284 | .716 | 1.000 | 1.031 | 0.367 | 2.900 | 0.954 |
STS8 substance use | .667 | .510 | .824 | .053 | 0.506 | 0.254 | 1.007 | 0.052 | .568 | .360 | .775 | .553 | 0.816 | 0.323 | 2.061 | 0.667 |
STS9 impulse control | .798 | .664 | .932 | .001 | 0.244 | 0.111 | 0.538 | 0.001 | .712 | .495 | .929 | .063 | 0.375 | 0.148 | 0.948 | 0.038 |
STS10 external triggers | .753 | .600 | .906 | .003 | 0.249 | 0.097 | 0.642 | 0.004 | .672 | .472 | .872 | .131 | 0.428 | 0.149 | 1.235 | 0.117 |
STS11 social support | .625 | .496 | .754 | .148 | 0.567 | 0.241 | 1.335 | 0.194 | .542 | .326 | .757 | .715 | 0.817 | 0.267 | 2.506 | 0.817 |
STS12 material resources | .653 | .494 | .812 | .077 | 0.499 | 0.237 | 1.049 | 0.067 | .590 | .379 | .802 | .428 | 0.679 | 0.262 | 1.762 | 0.427 |
STS13 attitudes | .736 | .609* | .863 | .006* | 0.337 | 0.151 | 0.750 | 0.008 | .619 | .443 | .794 | .298 | 0.630 | 0.251 | 1.586 | 0.327 |
STS14 medication adherence | .690 | .523* | .857 | .028* | 0.560 | 0.224 | 1.401 | 0.216 | .645 | .441 | .849 | .202 | 0.410 | 0.199 | 0.844 | 0.016 |
STS15 rule adherence | .752 | .596* | .907 | .004* | 0.269 | 0.120 | 0.603 | 0.001 | .602 | .369 | .835 | .370 | 0.590 | 0.224 | 1.556 | 0.286 |
STS16 conduct | .737 | .592* | .882 | .006* | 0.325 | 0.146 | 0.723 | 0.006 | .535 | .306 | .763 | .762 | 0.866 | 0.336 | 2.229 | 0.765 |
STS17 insight | .656 | .506* | .806 | .071 | 0.447 | 0.183 | 1.089 | 0.076 | .547 | .337 | .757 | .679 | 0.808 | 0.291 | 2.244 | 0.683 |
STS18 plans | .624 | .479 | .769 | .151 | 0.526 | 0.236 | 1.172 | 0.116 | .621 | .453 | .789 | .288 | 0.509 | 0.171 | 1.520 | 0.226 |
STS19 coping | .662 | .510* | .815 | .060 | 0.407 | 0.161 | 1.032 | 0.058 | .502 | .260 | .743 | .989 | 1.034 | 0.369 | 2.892 | 0.950 |
STS20 treatability | .724 | .606* | .841 | .010* | 0.319 | 0.132 | 0.772 | 0.011 | .619 | .469 | .768 | .298 | 0.584 | 0.214 | 1.588 | 0.292 |
START | Harm to others 13/100 | Harm to self 7/100 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vulnerabilities | AUC | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | ||||
Items | Lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | ||||||||
STV1 social skills | .759 | .621* | .897 | .003* | 4.319 | 1.592 | 11.714 | 0.004 | .617 | .371 | .864 | .303 | 1.760 | 0.621 | 4.993 | 0.288 |
STV2 relationships | .770 | .639* | .901 | .002* | 5.478 | 1.685 | 17.815 | 0.005 | .680 | .474 | .886 | .113 | 2.575 | 0.791 | 8.375 | 0.116 |
STV3 occupational | .686 | .525* | .847 | .031* | 2.378 | 1.126 | 5.023 | 0.023 | .525 | .293 | .756 | .827 | 1.131 | 0.476 | 2.687 | 0.780 |
STV4 recreational | .731 | .592* | .871 | .007* | 3.550 | 1.403 | 8.982 | 0.007 | .568 | .333 | .802 | .553 | 1.391 | 0.509 | 3.801 | 0.519 |
STV5 self-care | .712 | .560* | .863 | .014* | 2.819 | 1.287 | 6.177 | 0.010 | .600 | .366 | .834 | .379 | 1.732 | 0.643 | 4.662 | 0.277 |
STV6 mental state | .648 | .489 | .808 | .085 | 2.092 | 0.921 | 4.749 | 0.078 | .728 | .577 | .880 | .045 | 3.949 | 0.967 | 16.129 | 0.056 |
STV7 emotional state | .733 | .597 | .870 | .007 | 3.457 | 1.428 | 8.365 | 0.006 | .547 | .328 | .765 | .682 | 1.263 | 0.469 | 3.397 | 0.644 |
STV8 substance use | .677 | .519 | .835 | .040 | 2.232 | 1.094 | 4.553 | 0.027 | .576 | .366 | .786 | .504 | 1.334 | 0.516 | 3.447 | 0.552 |
STV9 impulse control | .795 | .657 | .933 | .001 | 4.554 | 1.976 | 10.495 | 0.001 | .708 | .485 | .931 | .067 | 2.836 | 1.078 | 7.466 | 0.035 |
STV10 external triggers | .784 | .675 | .893 | .001 | 6.337 | 1.890 | 21.243 | 0.003 | .690 | .530 | .851 | .094 | 2.837 | 0.847 | 9.499 | 0.091 |
STV11 social support | .699 | .551 | .848 | .021 | 3.116 | 1.206 | 8.048 | 0.019 | .530 | .329 | .730 | .795 | 1.175 | 0.416 | 3.322 | 0.761 |
STV12 material resources | .645 | .487 | .804 | .092 | 2.044 | 0.931 | 4.489 | 0.075 | .435 | .212 | .658 | .566 | 0.714 | 0.233 | 2.189 | 0.555 |
STV13 attitudes | .783 | .662 | .903 | .001 | 4.103 | 1.705 | 9.875 | 0.002 | .651 | .429 | .872 | .185 | 1.992 | 0.790 | 5.034 | 0.144 |
STV14 medication adherence | .613 | .447 | .778 | .192 | 1.682 | 0.807 | 3.505 | 0.165 | .533 | .340 | .725 | .774 | 0.992 | 0.350 | 2.809 | 0.987 |
STV15 rule adherence | .764 | .625 | .904 | .002 | 3.799 | 1.671 | 8.637 | 0.001 | .644 | .434 | .853 | .207 | 1.992 | 0.732 | 5.051 | 0.185 |
STV16 conduct | .811 | .664 | .957 | .001 | 5.123 | 2.332 | 11.253 | 0.001 | .671 | .440 | .902 | .133 | 2.349 | 0.976 | 5.655 | 0.057 |
STV17 insight | .641 | .484 | .797 | .103 | 2.185 | 0.860 | 5.551 | 0.100 | .528 | .309 | .746 | .806 | 1.147 | 0.392 | 3.347 | 0.805 |
STV18 plans | .687 | .557 | .817 | .030 | 3.002 | 1.151 | 7.830 | 0.025 | .599 | .425 | .772 | .386 | 1.765 | 0.596 | 5.231 | 0.305 |
STV19 coping | .686 | .546 | .826 | .031 | 2.428 | 0.934 | 6.311 | 0.069 | .582 | .384 | .780 | .469 | 1.227 | 0.409 | 3.680 | 0.715 |
STV20 treatability | .759 | .621 | .897 | .003 | 2.614 | 1.103 | 6.194 | 0.029 | .617 | .371 | .864 | .303 | 1.481 | 0.554 | 3.964 | 0.434 |
Harm to others 13/98 | Harm to self 7/98 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | |||||
lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | |||||||||
H1 Previous violence | .467 | .291 | .643 | .705 | 0.140 | 0.008 | 2.381 | 0.174 | .434 | .193 | .675 | .561 | 0.065 | 0.004 | 1.176 | 0.064 |
H2 Young age at first violent incident | .627 | .459 | .796 | .140 | 2.238 | 0.820 | 6.105 | 0.116 | .730 | .552 | .909 | .043 | 5.510 | 1.096 | 27.704 | 0.038 |
H3 Relationship instability | .648 | .511 | .785 | .086 | 3.536 | 0.901 | 13.872 | 0.070 | .644 | .467 | .820 | .207 | 5.510 | 1.096 | 27.704 | 0.038 |
H4 Employment problems | .758 | .649 | .867 | .003 | 11.005 | 1.529 | 79.186 | 0.017 | .713 | .558 | .867 | .061 | 5.350 | 0.769 | 37.219 | 0.090 |
H5 Substance misuse problems | .666 | .525 | .807 | .055 | 3.278 | 0.909 | 11.827 | 0.070 | .613 | .406 | .820 | .321 | 1.856 | 0.520 | 6.632 | 0.341 |
H6 Major mental illness | .436 | .257 | .616 | .461 | 0.472 | 0.112 | 1.826 | 0.277 | .446 | .209 | .683 | .636 | 0.547 | 0.101 | 2.970 | 0.485 |
H7 psychopathy | ||||||||||||||||
H8 Early maladjustment | .714 | .576 | .852 | .013 | 3.769 | 1.216 | 11.683 | 0.022 | .686 | .484 | .887 | .102 | 2.858 | 0.734 | 11.131 | 0.130 |
H9 Personality disorder | .643 | .464 | .822 | .098 | 2.529 | 1.090 | 5.855 | 0.030 | .711 | .482 | .940 | .063 | 3.731 | 1.226 | 11.358 | 0.020 |
H10 Prior supervision failure | .705 | .581 | .829 | .017 | 4.787 | 1.211 | 18.929 | 0.026 | .635 | .458 | .812 | .235 | 2.461 | 0.632 | 9.578 | 0.194 |
C1 Lack of insight | .666 | .515 | .816 | .055 | 2.737 | 0.960 | 7.804 | 0.060 | .716 | .559 | .872 | .058 | 5.793 | 0.792 | 42.383 | 0.084 |
C2 Negative attitudes | .772 | .639 | .905 | .002 | 3.492 | 1.632 | 7.468 | 0.001 | .752 | .581 | .923 | .027 | 2.990 | 1.145 | 7.812 | 0.025 |
C3 Active symptoms of major mental illness | .650 | .491 | .810 | .081 | 1.946 | 0.953 | 3.976 | 0.068 | .701 | .513 | .889 | .077 | 2.618 | 0.898 | 7.633 | 0.078 |
C4 Impulsivity | .744 | .566 | .921 | .005 | 4.393 | 2.046 | 9.425 | 0.001 | .700 | .458 | .943 | .078 | 3.192 | 1.280 | 7.962 | 0.013 |
C5 Unresponsiveness to treatment | .745 | .588 | .902 | .005 | 3.888 | 1.534 | 9.851 | 0.004 | .791 | .594 | .988 | .010 | 6.145 | 1.403 | 26.920 | 0.016 |
R1 Plans lack feasibility | .687 | .534 | .840 | .030 | 2.284 | 1.122 | 4.650 | 0.023 | .666 | .498 | .834 | .145 | 1.876 | 0.757 | 4.646 | 0.174 |
R2 Exposure to destabilisers | .662 | .491 | .833 | .060 | 3.061 | 1.169 | 8.017 | 0.023 | .678 | .450 | .906 | .117 | 3.477 | 1.070 | 11.301 | 0.038 |
R3 Lack of personal support | .647 | .492 | .802 | .088 | 2.095 | 0.885 | 4.960 | 0.093 | .560 | .353 | .767 | .598 | 1.239 | 0.383 | 4.008 | 0.721 |
R4 Non-compliance with remediation attempts | .760 | .610 | .909 | .003 | 4.537 | 1.873 | 10.992 | 0.001 | .711 | .499 | .923 | .063 | 3.206 | 1.126 | 9.134 | 0.029 |
R5 Stress | .740 | .595 | .886 | .005 | 4.798 | 1.725 | 13.347 | 0.003 | .735 | .515 | .955 | .039 | 4.686 | 1.266 | 17.344 | 0.021 |
Harm to others 13/98 | Harm to self 7/98 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | |||||
lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | |||||||||
B1 History of deliberate self harm | .724 | .585 | .863 | .009 | 2.840 | 1.298 | 6.212 | 0.009 | .698 | .519 | .877 | .081 | 2.451 | 0.905 | 6.639 | 0.078 |
B2 Seriousness of previous suicidality | .576 | .403 | .750 | .375 | 1.398 | 0.721 | 2.710 | 0.321 | .453 | .228 | .679 | .680 | 0.822 | 0.332 | 2.034 | 0.672 |
B3 Previous hospitalisation | .649 | .496 | .801 | .085 | 2.343 | 0.901 | 6.090 | 0.081 | .733 | .583 | .884 | .040 | 6.404 | 0.873 | 46.998 | 0.068 |
B4 Mental disorder | .442 | .264 | .621 | .502 | 0.521 | 0.136 | 1.998 | 0.342 | .452 | .216 | .687 | .670 | 0.592 | 0.106 | 3.302 | 0.550 |
B5 Substance abuse disorder | .625 | .473 | .776 | .148 | 1.474 | 0.476 | 4.567 | 0.501 | .577 | .360 | .793 | .499 | 2.118 | 0.798 | 5.630 | 0.133 |
B6 Personality | .639 | .461 | .817 | .106 | 2.375 | 1.048 | 5.383 | 0.038 | .673 | .456 | .890 | .129 | 2.570 | 0.897 | 7.361 | 0.079 |
B7 Childhood adversity | .634 | .465 | .804 | .119 | 1.853 | 0.854 | 4.023 | 0.119 | .564 | .332 | .795 | .575 | 1.312 | 0.511 | 3.369 | 0.572 |
B8 Suicide in the family | .590 | .410 | .771 | .296 | 1.980 | 0.923 | 4.246 | 0.079 | .496 | .271 | .722 | .973 | 1.104 | 0.333 | 3.659 | 0.872 |
B9 Age, Gender and marital status | .445 | .269 | .620 | .522 | 0.630 | 0.189 | 2.104 | 0.452 | .344 | .108 | .580 | .170 | -.329 | 0.092 | 1.182 | 0.088 |
C1 Suicidal ideation, communication and intent | .571 | .389 | .752 | .412 | 3.876 | 0.931 | 16.134 | 0.063 | .637 | .388 | .886 | .229 | 6.083 | 1.368 | 27.045 | 0.018 |
C2 Hopelessness | .528 | .350 | .706 | .743 | 2.399 | 0.780 | 7.382 | 0.127 | .604 | .354 | .855 | .358 | 4.814 | 1.373 | 16.875 | 0.014 |
C3 Psychological symptoms | .672 | .523 | .820 | .047 | 2.204 | 1.030 | 4.718 | 0.042 | .745 | .609 | .881 | .031 | 3.766 | 1.022 | 13.875 | 0.046 |
C4 Treatment adherence | .627 | .462 | .793 | .140 | 1.942 | 0.864 | 4.369 | 0.108 | .626 | .388 | .864 | .268 | 2.186 | 0.777 | 5.149 | 0.138 |
C5 Substance use | .500 | .331 | .669 | 1.000 | .500 | .277 | .723 | 1.000 | ||||||||
C6 Psychiatric admission and discharge | .468 | .298 | .639 | .712 | 0.377 | 0.045 | 3.151 | 0.368 | .435 | .202 | .669 | .570 | 0.196 | 0.019 | 2.027 | 0.171 |
C7 Psychosocial stress | .640 | .488 | .791 | .105 | 2.140 | 0.897 | 5.107 | 0.086 | .720 | .572 | .869 | .053 | 3.360 | 1.016 | 11.119 | 0.047 |
C8 Problem solving deficits | .739 | .616 | .862 | .006 | 5.185 | 1.519 | 17.693 | 0.009 | .761 | .617 | .905 | .022 | 7.883 | 1.039 | 59.784 | 0.046 |
F1 Access to preferred method of suicide | .643 | .474 | .813 | .097 | 2.456 | 0.982 | 6.141 | 0.055 | .588 | .350 | .825 | .441 | 2.019 | 0.625 | 6.518 | 0.240 |
F2 Future service contact | .574 | .412 | .737 | .389 | 1.394 | 0.684 | 2.843 | 0.360 | .539 | .318 | .760 | .730 | 1.188 | 0.473 | 2.988 | 0.714 |
F3 Future response to drug treatment | .648 | .502 | .794 | .086 | 1.035 | 0.835 | 1.282 | 0.756 | .678 | .515 | .841 | .117 | 1.046 | 0.814 | 1.344 | 0.726 |
F4 Future response to psychological intervention | .634 | .495 | .772 | .122 | 2.276 | 0.890 | 5.823 | 0.086 | .606 | .424 | .788 | .351 | 1.927 | 0.586 | 6.338 | 0.280 |
F5 Future Stress | .580 | .424 | .736 | .356 | 2.079 | 0.587 | 7.367 | 0.257 | .472 | .254 | .691 | .808 | 0.911 | 0.242 | 3.431 | 0.890 |
Harm to others 12/94 | Harm to self 7/94 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | p | AUC | 95% CI | p | OR | 95% CI | P | |||||
lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | |||||||||
DUNDRUM-1 triage security | ||||||||||||||||
TS1 Seriousness of violence | .454 | .275 | .634 | .610 | 1.012 | 0.436 | 2.347 | 0.978 | .365 | .133 | .596 | .235 | 0.769 | 0.344 | 1.721 | 0.523 |
TS2 Seriousness of self-harm | .627 | .477 | .776 | .158 | 1.278 | 0.858 | 1.904 | 0.227 | .665 | .506 | .824 | .148 | 1.373 | 0.832 | 2.265 | 0.215 |
TS3 Immediacy of risk of violence | .587 | .385 | .790 | .330 | 1.517 | 0.969 | 2.376 | 0.069 | .701 | .459 | .944 | .078 | 1.646 | 0.931 | 2.909 | 0.087 |
TS4 Immediacy of risk of suicide/ self harm | .665 | .505 | .824 | .066 | 1.545 | 0.870 | 2.744 | 0.138 | .704 | .528 | .881 | .073 | 1.506 | 0.727 | 3.121 | 0.270 |
TS5 Specialist forensic need | .630 | .491 | .769 | .147 | 1.239 | 0.520 | 2.950 | 0.629 | .623 | .459 | .788 | .280 | 0.734 | 0.287 | 1.879 | 0.519 |
TS6 Absconding / eloping | .586 | .397 | .775 | .336 | 1.239 | 0.520 | 2.950 | 0.629 | .499 | .235 | .764 | .994 | 0.734 | 0.287 | 1.879 | 0.519 |
TS7 Preventing access | .640 | .484 | .797 | .118 | 1.926 | 0.888 | 4.179 | 0.097 | .526 | .321 | .732 | .818 | 1.162 | 0.462 | 2.923 | 0.750 |
TS8 Victim sensitivity/public confidence issues | .504 | .280 | .727 | .968 | 1.265 | 0.394 | 4.060 | 0.693 | .596 | .307 | .886 | .400 | 1.265 | 0.394 | 4.060 | 0.693 |
TS9 Complex Risk of Violence | .686 | .539 | .833 | .038 | 3.324 | 1.154 | 9.576 | 0.026 | .644 | .455 | .832 | .208 | 2.464 | 0.691 | 8.781 | 0.164 |
TS10 Institutional behaviour | .793 | .645 | .940 | .001 | 2.665 | 1.158 | 6.134 | 0.021 | .787 | .662 | .912 | .012 | 2.665 | 1.158 | 6.134 | 0.021 |
TS11 Legal process | .454 | .272 | .636 | .610 | 2.757 | 1.427 | 5.324 | 0.003 | .438 | .203 | .672 | .584 | 0.479 | 0.084 | 2.723 | 0.407 |
DUNDRUM-3 programme completion | ||||||||||||||||
PC1 Physical health | .692 | .522 | .861 | .033 | 2.078 | 1.066 | 4.050 | 0.032 | .617 | .383 | .850 | .307 | 1.529 | 0.717 | 3.258 | 0.272 |
PC2 Mental health | .803 | .697 | .909 | .001 | 4.898 | 1.646 | 14.576 | 0.004 | .801 | .672 | .931 | .008 | 5.175 | 1.192 | 22.467 | 0.028 |
PC3 Drugs and Alcohol | .771 | .619 | .923 | .002 | 2.469 | 1.252 | 4.871 | 0.009 | .663 | .442 | .885 | .152 | 1.566 | 0.808 | 3.033 | 0.184 |
PC4 Problem behaviours | .662 | .536 | .787 | .072 | 2.041 | 1.004 | 4.148 | 0.049 | .677 | .525 | .830 | .120 | 2.212 | 0.821 | 5.958 | 0.116 |
PC5 Self-care and activities of daily living | .752 | .618 | .886 | .005 | 2.978 | 1.378 | 6.437 | 0.006 | .705 | .502 | .909 | .072 | 2.203 | 0.934 | 5.197 | 0.071 |
PC6 Education, Occupation and Creativity | .817 | .682 | .951 | .000 | 3.708 | 1.733 | 7.936 | 0.001 | .775 | .637 | .913 | .016 | 2.588 | 1.145 | 5.849 | 0.022 |
PC7 Family and Social Networks | .698 | .544 | .852 | .027 | 1.906 | 1.073 | 3.386 | 0.028 | .620 | .402 | .837 | .293 | 1.456 | 0.750 | 2.827 | 0.267 |
DUNDRUM-4 recovery | ||||||||||||||||
RC1 Stability | .765 | .642 | .889 | .003 | 2.493 | 1.263 | 4.923 | 0.008 | .760 | .619 | .902 | .022 | 2.627 | 1.034 | 6.674 | 0.042 |
RC2 Insight | .649 | .511 | .788 | .096 | 1.614 | 0.921 | 2.828 | 0.095 | .622 | .464 | .779 | .287 | 1.456 | 0.728 | 2.913 | 0.289 |
RC3 Rapport and Working Alliance | .676 | .535 | .817 | .050 | 2.053 | 1.014 | 4.157 | 0.046 | .670 | .527 | .813 | .136 | 2.075 | 0.832 | 5.180 | 0.118 |
RC4 Leave | .623 | .481 | .765 | .170 | 1.600 | 0.890 | 2.876 | 0.117 | .594 | .398 | .789 | .412 | 1.406 | 0.690 | 2.863 | 0.348 |
RC5 HCR-20 Dynamic Items | .671 | .539 | .803 | .057 | 3.891 | 0.736 | 20.571 | 0.110 | .695 | .546 | .845 | .087 | 1.109 | 1.029 | 1.198 | 0.043 |
RC6 Victim Sensitivity Issues | .657 | .478 | .835 | .081 | 1.500 | 0.886 | 2.540 | 0.132 | .695 | .461 | .928 | .088 | 1.666 | 0.804 | 3.451 | 0.170 |
Harm to others n = 13/100 | Harm to self n = 7/100 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 95% CI of AUC | p | OR | 95% CI of OR | p | AUC | 95% CI of AUC | p | OR | 95% CI of OR | P | |||||
lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | lower | upper | |||||||||
P1 delusions | .586 | .398 | .774 | .318 | 1.201 | 0.901 | 1.601 | 0.211 | .690 | .443 | .938 | .094 | 1.475 | 0.992 | 2.194 | 0.055 |
P2 conceptual disorganisation | .746 | .592 | .899 | .004 | 1.918 | 1.282 | 2.870 | 0.002 | .805 | .625 | .985 | .007 | 2.336 | 1.318 | 4.139 | 0.004 |
P3 hallucinations | .656 | .473 | .839 | .070 | 1.600 | 1.144 | 2.238 | 0.006 | .713 | .476 | .949 | .061 | 1.774 | 1.173 | 2.684 | 0.007 |
P4 hyperactivity | .780 | .612 | .949 | .001 | 3.579 | 1.914 | 6.694 | 0.001 | .764 | .547 | .981 | .020 | 2.814 | 1.369 | 5.782 | 0.005 |
P5 grandiosity | .503 | .334 | .672 | .971 | 1.019 | 0.618 | 1.682 | 0.940 | .502 | .274 | .731 | .984 | 1.036 | 0.540 | 1.986 | 0.916 |
P6 suspiciousness / persecution | .665 | .516 | .814 | .055 | 1.504 | 0.981 | 2.306 | 0.061 | .582 | .358 | .807 | .470 | 1.243 | 0.715 | 2.159 | 0.441 |
P7 hostility | .755 | .618 | .891 | .003 | 2.232 | 1.313 | 3.795 | 0.003 | .709 | .541 | .877 | .066 | 1.767 | 0.919 | 3.399 | 0.088 |
N1 blunted affect | .525 | .346 | .703 | .774 | 1.075 | 0.725 | 1.592 | 0.720 | .573 | .334 | .812 | .521 | 1.152 | 0.690 | 1.924 | 0.588 |
N2 emotional withdrawal | .590 | .415 | .764 | .298 | 1.240 | 0.816 | 1.885 | 0.313 | .631 | .394 | .869 | .248 | 1.380 | 0.792 | 2.402 | 0.255 |
N3 poor rapport | .714 | .574 | .853 | .013 | 1.713 | 1.111 | 2.642 | 0.015 | .647 | .440 | .854 | .197 | 1.372 | 0.807 | 2.331 | 0.243 |
N4 passive / apathetic, social withdrawal | .534 | .376 | .693 | .689 | 1.076 | 0.735 | 1.575 | 0.707 | .487 | .307 | .667 | .909 | 0.911 | 0.532 | 1.560 | 0.735 |
N5 difficulty in abstract thinking | .567 | .385 | .750 | .436 | 1.171 | 0.821 | 1.671 | 0.383 | .637 | .434 | .840 | .229 | 1.330 | 0.825 | 2.144 | 0.242 |
N6 lack of spontaneity and flow of conversation | .631 | .472 | .791 | .128 | 1.371 | 0.923 | 2.035 | 0.118 | .666 | .477 | .854 | .145 | 1.434 | 0.856 | 2.403 | 0.171 |
N7 stereotyped thinking | .614 | .428 | .800 | .186 | 1.606 | 1.001 | 2.575 | 0.050 | .651 | .475 | .826 | .186 | 1.421 | 0.980 | 2.588 | 0.251 |
G1 somatic concern | .482 | .321 | .643 | .838 | 0.765 | 0.398 | 1.470 | 0.422 | .536 | .301 | .771 | .751 | 1.184 | 0.702 | 1.999 | 0.526 |
G2 anxiety | .551 | .383 | .718 | .556 | 1.106 | 0.645 | 1.896 | 0.714 | .679 | .466 | .892 | .116 | 1.511 | 0.840 | 2.716 | 0.168 |
G3 guilt feelings | .419 | .263 | .575 | .348 | 0.713 | 0.387 | 1.312 | 0.277 | .505 | .303 | .706 | .968 | 0.933 | 0.473 | 1.842 | 0.842 |
G4 tension | .698 | .519 | .876 | .022 | 2.085 | 1.212 | 3.589 | 0.008 | .764 | .541 | .988 | .020 | 2.364 | 1.222 | 4.571 | 0.011 |
G5 mannerisms and posturing | .544 | .372 | .716 | .608 | 0.965 | 0.534 | 1.742 | 0.905 | .577 | .341 | .813 | .499 | 1.187 | 0.676 | 2.082 | 0.551 |
G6 depression | .623 | .447 | .799 | .154 | 1.640 | 0.932 | 2.868 | 0.086 | .574 | .354 | .793 | .517 | 1.175 | 0.522 | 2.642 | 0.697 |
G7 motor retardation | .501 | .330 | .673 | .988 | 1.016 | 0.535 | 1.930 | 0.960 | .532 | .300 | .764 | .777 | 1.155 | 0.537 | 2.488 | 0.712 |
G8 uncooperativeness | .695 | .536 | .853 | .024 | 1.654 | 1.075 | 2.544 | 0.022 | .660 | .466 | .853 | .160 | 1.422 | 0.824 | 2.456 | 0.206 |
G9 unusual thought content | .659 | .485 | .832 | .066 | 1.427 | 1.011 | 2.015 | 0.043 | .710 | .470 | .951 | .064 | 1.648 | 1.039 | 2.614 | 0.034 |
G10 disorientation | .477 | .314 | .640 | .790 | .478 | .264 | .693 | .850 | ||||||||
G11 poor attention | .782 | .646 | .917 | .001 | 2.291 | 1.402 | 3.741 | 0.001 | .832 | .740 | .924 | .004 | 2.441 | 1.270 | 4.692 | 0.007 |
G12 lack of judgement and insight | .627 | .470 | .784 | .141 | 1.291 | 0.913 | 1.826 | 0.149 | .682 | .501 | .863 | .109 | 1.484 | 0.916 | 2.406 | 0.109 |
G13 disturbance of volition | .626 | .445 | .806 | .146 | 1.595 | 1.020 | 2.496 | 0.041 | .801 | .590 | 1.000 | .008 | 2.320 | 1.354 | 3.978 | 0.002 |
G14 poor impulse control | .745 | .578 | .912 | .005 | 2.377 | 1.409 | 4.012 | 0.001 | .727 | .514 | .939 | .046 | 2.066 | 1.093 | 3.905 | 0.026 |
G15 preoccupation | .650 | .480 | .820 | .082 | 1.532 | 0.991 | 2.366 | 0.055 | .785 | .608 | .962 | .012 | 2.212 | 1.256 | 3.893 | 0.006 |
G16 active social withdrawal | .604 | .435 | .773 | .228 | 1.397 | 0.890 | 2.194 | 0.146 | .620 | .429 | .810 | .292 | 1.278 | 0.708 | 2.308 | 0.416 |
S1 anger | 0.786 | 0.619 | 0.954 | 0.001 | 2.613 | 1.515 | 4.508 | 0.001 | 0.835 | 0.659 | 1.000 | 0.003 | 3.258 | 1.501 | 7.072 | 0.003 |
S2 difficulty in delaying gratification | 0.781 | 0.624 | 0.939 | 0.002 | 2.190 | 1.416 | 3.387 | 0.001 | 0.717 | 0.516 | 0.918 | 0.057 | 1.568 | 0.985 | 2.496 | 0.058 |
S3 affective lability | 0.695 | 0.511 | 0.879 | 0.029 | 2.239 | 1.369 | 3.663 | 0.001 | 0.726 | 0.496 | 0.956 | 0.047 | 2.101 | 1.201 | 3.675 | 0.009 |