Background
Methods
Patients
Outcome measures
Demographic and clinical baseline data
Prognostic (predictor) variables
Outcomes
Statistical analysis
Results
Baseline characteristics
Acute | Chronic | P-value | |
---|---|---|---|
(< 4 weeks) | (> 12 weeks) | ||
(N = 274) | (N = 255) | ||
Gender (Male) | 112 (40.9) | 89 (34.9) | 0.157 |
Age (years) | 40.0 (±12.58) | 41.8 (±13.87) | 0.114 |
In paid employment | 235 (86.7) | 200 (79.1) | 0.020* |
Taking pain meds | 101 (37.0) | 66 (25.9) | 0.006* |
Radiculopathy present | 34 (12.5) | 29 (11.4) | 0.691 |
Previous episodes: | |||
None | 109 (40.5) | 116 (47.5) | 0.0001* |
1–3 | 82 (30.5) | 25 (10.2) | |
4 or more | 78 (29.0) | 103 (42.2) | |
Trauma onset | 32 (11.7) | 40 (15.7) | 0.179 |
Smoker | 61 (22.8) | 56 (22.6) | 0.96 |
In good health | 197 (73.0) | 138 (54.4) | 0.001* |
Dizziness present | 51 (44.7) | 64 (45.1) | 0.957 |
Acute baseline | Chronic baseline | p- Value | |
---|---|---|---|
(N =272) | (N = 255) | ||
NRS neck | 6.12 (±2.01) | 5.5 (±2.29) | 0.001* |
NRS arm | 2.28 (±2.20) | 2.23 (±2.70) | 0.838 |
BQ pain | 5.91 (±2.34) | 5.53 (±2.23) | 0.06 |
BQ Disability in activities of daily living | 4.81 (±2.86) | 3.75 (±2.58) | 0.0001* |
BQ Disability in social activities | 4.32 (±3.17) | 3.03 (±2.95) | 0.0001* |
BQ Anxiety | 5.41 (±2.88) | 5.63 (±2.69) | 0.366 |
BQ Depression | 3.44 (±3.16) | 3.41 (±3.04) | 0.918 |
BQ Fear-avoidance beliefs | 4.80 (±2.94) | 4.43 (±2.93) | 0.148 |
BQ Locus of control | 4.80 (±2.94) | 4.43 (±2.93) | 0.091 |
BQ Total score | 33.96 (±15.26) | 30.50 (±14.18) | 0.008* |
General outcomes
Prognostic variables
Outcome at 1 Week
Predictor variable | Acute (N = 217) | Chronic (N = 190) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
Gender (male) | 0.84 (0.44 to 1.61) | 0.61 | 0.85 (0.46 to 1.59) | 0.62 |
*Age (higher) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.02) | 0.60 | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | 0.87 |
Dizziness present | 1.63 (0.24 to 1.69) | 0.36 | 1.08 (0.48 to 2.41) | 0.86 |
Radiculopathy present | 1.69 (0.55 to 5.18) | 0.36 | 0.53 (0.18 to 1.52) | 0.24 |
Trauma | 0.91 (0.32 to 2.59) | 0.86 | 0.90 (0.40 to 2.06) | 0.81 |
Previous episodes category (higher) | 1.10 (0.50 to 2.42) | 0.82 | 1.23 (0.65 to 2.35) | 0.52 |
Taking medication | 0.86 (0.44 to 1.66) | 0.64 | 1.38 (0.71 to 2.68) | 0.35 |
Paid employment | 1.01 (0.41 to 2.51) | 0.98 | 1.00 (0.76 to 1.33) | 0.981 |
Smoke | 1.11 (0.50 to 2.43) | 0.80 | 1.78 (0.87 to 3.61) | 0.12 |
In good health | 1.22 (0.61 to 2.46) | 0.57 | 1.08 (0.60 to 1.96) | 0.79 |
*BQ Pain | 0.98 (0.85 to 1.12) | 0.73 |
1.13 (0.99 to 1.29)
|
0.08
|
*BQ Disability | 1.06 (0.94 to 1.18) | 0.35 | 1.09 (0.97 to 1.23) | 0.15 |
*BQ Social disability | 1.08 (0.98 to 1.19) | 0.14 | 1.07 (0.96 to 1.19) | 0.21 |
*BQ Anxiety | 1.02 (0.91 to 1.14) | 0.74 | 1.10 (0.98 to 1.24) | 0.11 |
*BQ Depression | 0.99 (0.89 to 1.10) | 0.83 |
1.12 (1.01 to 1.24)
|
0.03
|
*BQ Fear avoidance beliefs | 0.96 (0.85 to 1.07) | 0.44 | 1.09 (0.98 to 1.21) | 0.69 |
*BQ Locus of control | 1.05 (0.94 to 1.18) | 0.37 | 0.98 (0.88 to 1.09) | 0.69 |
*BQ Total | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.03) | 0.64 |
1.02 (1.00 to 1.04)
|
0.07
|
*NRS Neck | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.03) | 0.79 | 1.03 (0.91 to 1.17) | 0.65 |
*NRS Arm | 0.96 (0.86 to 1.08) | 0.48 | 0.99 (0.88 to 1.12) | 0.92 |
Outcome at 1 Month
Predictor variable | Acute (N = 215) | Chronic (N = 204) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
Gender (male) | 0.69 (0.32-1.51) | 0.36 | 0.75 (0.42 to 1.35) | 0.34 |
*Age (higher) | 0.98 (0.95 to 1.01) | 0.13 | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | 0.85 |
Dizziness present | 1.54 (0.47 to 5.02) | 0.47 | 1.02 (0.45 to 2.31) | 0.96 |
Radiculopathy present | 2.19 (0.49 to 9.78) | 0.30 | 0.60 (0.25 to 1.44) | 0.25 |
Trauma | 0.74 (0.24 to 2.36) | 0.62 | 1.29 (0.59 to 2.83) | 0.52 |
Previous episodes category (higher) | 1.18 (0.47 to 2.93) | 0.73 | 1.31 (0.71 to 2.43) | 0.39 |
Taking medication | 1.76 (0.74 to 4.18) | 0.20 | 1.04 (0.54 to 2.00) | 0.40 |
Paid employment | 0.90 (0.29 to 2.78) | 0.85 |
0.55 (0.27 to 1.13)
|
0.10
|
Smoke | 1.43 (0.51 to 3.98) | 0.49 | 1.01 (0.50 to 2.03) | 0.98 |
In good health | 1.72 (0.76 to 3.90) | 0.19 | 1.58 (0.89 to 2.81) | 0.12 |
*BQ Pain | 1.09 (0.83 to 1.28) | 0.31 | 1.00 (0.89 to 1.13) | 0.98 |
*BQ Disability | 1.08 (0.94 to 1.24) | 0.29 | 1.01 (0.90 to 1.13) | 0.87 |
*BQ Social disability |
1.12 (0.98 to 1.27)
|
0.09
| 1.07 (0.97 to 1.19) | 0.18 |
*BQ Anxiety | 0.97 (0.85 to 1.12) | 0.69 | 1.06 (0.75 to 1.17) | 0.31 |
*BQ Depression |
0.90 (0.80 to 1.01)
|
0.08
| 0.96 (0.88 to 1.06) | 0.42 |
*BQ Fear avoidance beliefs | 1.05 (0.92 to 1.20) | 0.51 | 1.03 (0.94 to 1.14) | 0.52 |
*BQ Locus of control | 1.08 (0.95 to 1.24) | 0.25 | 0.96 (0.87 to 1.07) | 0.46 |
*BQ Total | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.49 | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | 0.83 |
*NRS Neck | 1.08 (0.90 to 1.30) | 0.39 | 1.00 (0.88 to 1.13) | 0.93 |
*NRS Arm | 1.05 (0.90 to 1.22) | 0.53 | 0.98 (0.89 to 1.09) | 0.76 |
PGIC @ 1 week
|
4.04 (1.63 to 10.07)
|
.003
|
4.60 (2.04 to 10.38)
|
.0001
|
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Pain Change Score |
1.14 (0.99 to 1.32)
|
0.08
| 1.01 (0.88 to 1.15) | 0.88 |
*Baseline:1 Week BQ Disability Change Score | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.26) | 0.23 | 0.99 (0.88 to 1.12) | 0.90 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Social disability Change Score | 1.10 (0.95 to 1.28) | 0.20 | 1.10 (0.98 to 1.25) | 0.12 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Anxiety Change Score | 1.13 (0.96 to 1.32) | 0.14 | 1.08 (0.93 to 1.25) | 0.31 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Depression Change Score | 0.99 (0.85 to 1.16 ) | 0.93 | 1.01 (0.90 to 1.14) | 0.84 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Fear avoidance beliefs Change Score | 0.99 (0.86 to 1.16) | 0.88 | 1.08 (0.96 to 1.22) | 0.21 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Locus of control Change Score |
1.12 (1.00 to 1.26)
|
0.05
| 1.03 (0.94 to 1.13) | 0.58 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Total Change Score | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.05) | 0.13 | 1.01 (0.92 to 1.21) | 0.43 |
*Baseline: 1 Week NRS Neck Change Score |
1.42 (1.14 to 1.77)
|
0.002
| 1.06 (0.92 to 1.21) | 0.43 |
*Baseline: 1 Week NRS Arm Change Score | 1.12 (0.92 to 1.36) | 0.27 | 0.95 (0.82 to 1.10) | 0.49 |
Coefficient | OR | 95% CI | p-value | Sensitivity; Specificity; Percentage correctly predicted; Area under ROC (95% CI); Adjusted R2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Acute N = 180
| |||||
BQ 5: Baseline Depression | −0.18 | 0.84 | 0.71 to 0.98 | 0.024 | 99.4%; 4.3%; 87.2%; 0.79 (0.70 to 0.88); 21.7% |
Baseline to 1 Week BQ Pain change score | 0.19 | 1.21 | 1.02 to 1.44 | 0.032 | |
Baseline to1 Week NRS Neck Change Score | 0.31 | 1.36 | 1.10 to 1.75 | 0.017 | |
PGIC @ 1 Week | 1.05 | 2.87 | 1.08 to 7.64 | 0.035 | |
Chronic N = 156
| |||||
PGIC @ 1 Week | 1.48 | 4.41 | 1.95 to 9.96 | 0.001 | 100.0%; 0%; 67.3%; 0.66 (0.57 to 0.75); 12.7% |
Outcome at 3 months
Predictor variable | Acute (N = 197) | Chronic (N = 185) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
Gender (male) | 1.31 (0.60-2.85) | 0.50 | 0.63 (0.33 to 1.23) | 0.18 |
*Age (higher) | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.29 | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | 0.99 |
Dizziness present | 1.40 (0.42 to 4.65) | 0.58 | 1.06 (0.42 to 2.67) | 0.90 |
Radiculopathy present | 0.89 (0.31 to 2.54) | 0.82 | 1.34 (0.46 to 3.89) | 0.59 |
Trauma | 0.87 (0.36 to 2.12) | 0.76 | 0.78 (0.34 to 1.82) | 0.56 |
Previous episodes category (higher) | 0.65 (0.30 to 1.39) | 0.27 | 1.41 (0.71 to 2.78) | 0.33 |
Taking medication | 0.65 (0.30 to 1.39) | 0.27 | 0.89 (0.4 to 1.82) | 0.75 |
Paid employment | 1.30 (0.45 to 3.75) | 0.63 | 0.61 (0.28 to 1.34) | 0.22 |
Smoke | 1.88 (0.62 to 5.72) | 0.27 | 0.96 (0.45 to 2.08) | 0.93 |
In good health | 1.42 (0.63 to 3.18) | 0.40 | 0.74 (0.39 to 1.42) | 0.37 |
*BQ Pain | 0.98 (0.82 to 1.15) | 0.77 | 1.00 (0.87 to 1.15) | 0.98 |
*BQ Disability | 1.10 (0.96 to 1.26) | 0.18 | 1.05 (0.92 to 1.219) | 0.49 |
*BQ Social disability |
1.13 (0.99 to 1.28)
|
0.06
| 1.09 (0.97 to 1.22) | 0.16 |
*BQ Anxiety | 1.02 (0.89 to 1.17) | 0.76 |
1.12 (0.99 to 1.26)
|
0.08
|
*BQ Depression | 0.91 (0.81 to 1.02) | 0.11 | 0.97 (0.88 to 1.08) | 0.63 |
*BQ Fear avoidance beliefs |
1.14 (0.99 to 1.30)
|
0.07
| 1.02 (0.91 to 1.14) | 0.70 |
*BQ Locus of control | 1.02 (0.89 to 1.17) | 0.77 | 1.03 (0.91 to 1.15) | 0.66 |
*BQ Total | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.47 | 1.01 (0.99 to 1.04) | 0.37 |
*NRS Neck | 1.09 (0.91 to 1.30) | 0.36 | 1.02 (0.89 to 1.18) | 0.73 |
*NRS Arm |
0.90 (0.79 to 1.02)
|
0.09
| 1.901 (0.89 to 1.14) | 0.93 |
PGIC @ 1 week |
3.61 (1.47 to 8.89)
|
0.005
|
3.37 (1.42 to 8.00)
|
0.006
|
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Pain Change Score | 1.13 (0.96 to 1.32) | 0.15 | 1.06 (0.91 to 1.24) | 0.43 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Disability Change Score | 1.05 (0.91 to 1.21) | 0.49 | 0.98 (0.85 to 1.13) | 0.79 |
*Baseline:1 Week BQ Social Disability Change Score | 1.06 (0.92 to 1.22) | 0.42 | 0.99 (0.87 to 1.12) | 0.83 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Anxiety Change Score | 1.06 (0.92 to 1.23) | 0.42 | 1.12 (0.98 to 1.27) | 0.11 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Depression Change Score | 0.89 (0.77 to 1.04) | 0.14 | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.24) | 0.21 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Fear avoidance beliefs Change Score |
1.20 (1.02 to 1.40)
|
0.026
| 0.98 (0.87 to 1.12) | 0.81 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Locus of control Change Score | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.19) | 0.29 | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.12) | 0.96 |
*Baseline: 1 Week BQ Total Change Score | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.05) | 0.24 | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.05) | 0.38 |
*Baseline: 1 Week NRS Neck Change Score |
1.25 (1.04 to 1.51)
|
0.02
| 1.10 (0.87 to 1.17) | 0.94 |
*Baseline: 1 Week NRS Arm Change Score | 0.94 (0.79 to 1.12) | 0.48 | 1.03 (0.87 to 1.22) | 0.72 |
PGIC @ 1 Month |
3.94 (1.47 to 10.60)
|
0.007
|
5.82 (2.83 to 11.97)
|
0.001
|
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Pain Change Score |
1.30 (1.11 to 1.52)
|
0.001
|
1.22 (1.06 to 1.41)
|
0.006
|
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Disability Change Score |
1.41 (1.18 to 1.68)
|
0.001
|
1.15 (1.02 to 1.30)
|
0.02
|
*Baseline:1 Month BQ Social Disability Change Score |
1.44 (1.22 to 1.71)
|
0.001
| 1.06 (0.95 to 1.18) | 0.33 |
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Anxiety Change Score |
1.26 (1.09 to 1.46)
|
0.001
|
1.16 (1.04 to 1.30)
|
0.008
|
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Depression Change Score |
1.15 (0.99 to 1.33)
|
0.08
| 1.05 (0.94 to 1.19) | 0.40 |
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Fear avoidance beliefs Change Score |
1.33 (1.14 to 1.55)
|
0.001
| 1.04 (0.94 to 1.14) | 0.49 |
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Locus of control Change Score |
1.36 (1.16 to 1.60)
|
0.001
|
1.18 (1.07 to 1.30)
|
0.001
|
*Baseline: 1 Month BQ Total Change Score |
1.08 (1.04 to 1.11)
|
0.001
|
1.03 (1.01 to 1.06)
|
0.004
|
*Baseline: 1 Month NRS Neck Change Score |
1.30 (1.10 to 1.54)
|
0.002
|
1.18 (1.03 to 1.36)
|
0.02
|
*Baseline: 1 Month NRS Arm Change Score | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.31) | 0.26 | 1.12 (0.94 to 1.33) | 0.22 |
Coefficient | OR | 95% CI | p-value | Sensitivity; Specificity; Percentage correctly predicted; Area under ROC (95% CI); Adjusted R2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Acute N = 146 | |||||
Baseline to 1 Month BQN total Change Score | 0.66 | 1.07 | 1.03 to 1.11 | 0.001 | 97.6%; 35.0%; 89%; 0.82 (0.72 to 0.92); 28.8% |
PGIC @ 1 Week | 1.21 | 3.35 | 1.13 to 9.92 | 0.029 | |
ChronicN = 133 | |||||
PGIC @ 1 Month | 1.80 | 6.04 | 2.76 to 13.69 | 0.001 | 77.9%; 63.2%; 73.7%; 0.71 (0.62 to 0.79); 19.9% |