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01.12.2012 | Research | Ausgabe 1/2012 Open Access

Malaria Journal 1/2012

Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change

Zeitschrift:
Malaria Journal > Ausgabe 1/2012
Autoren:
Guo-Jing Yang, Marcel Tanner, Jürg Utzinger, John B Malone, Robert Bergquist, Emily YY Chan, Qi Gao, Xiao-Nong Zhou
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​1475-2875-11-426) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Competing interests

The authors declare that there are no competing interests.

Authors’ contributions

GJY and ZXN conceived the study and analyzed the data. GJY wrote the first version of the manuscript. XNZ, MT, JU, JBM, RB revised the manuscript. All authors read, contributed to, and approved the final version of the manuscript.

Abstract

Background

A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010–2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020–2050).

Methods

Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961–2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%.

Results

Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country.

Conclusion

Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change.
Zusatzmaterial
Authors’ original file for figure 1
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Authors’ original file for figure 2
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Authors’ original file for figure 3
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Authors’ original file for figure 4
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Literatur
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