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01.12.2017 | Research | Ausgabe 1/2017 Open Access

Malaria Journal 1/2017

Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination

Zeitschrift:
Malaria Journal > Ausgabe 1/2017
Autoren:
Joshua O. Yukich, Nakul Chitnis
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​s12936-017-2051-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Joshua O. Yukich and Nakul Chitnis contributed equally to this work

Background

Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced.

Methods and findings

A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be removed without high expectation of resurgence. These, potentially safe, scenarios are characterized by low historic entomological inoculation rates, successful vector control programmes that achieve elimination or near elimination, and effective surveillance systems with high coverage and effective treatment of malaria cases.

Conclusions

Programmes and funding agencies considering scaling back or withdrawing vector control from previously malaria endemic areas need to first carefully consider current receptivity and other available interventions in a risk assessment. Surveillance for resurgence needs to be continuously conducted over a long period of time in order to ensure a rapid response should vector control be withdrawn.
Zusatzmaterial
Additional file 1. Baseline parameterization of the African scenario.
Additional file 2. Baseline parameterization of the Western Pacific scenario.
Additional file 3. Supplemental simulation results and results of precision and bias simulations.
Literatur
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