Morphokinetic analysis of cleavage stage embryos and assessment of specific gene expression in cumulus cells independently predict human embryo development to expanded blastocyst: a preliminary study

To assess whether morphokinetic features at the cleavage stage together with specific gene expression in cumulus cells (CCs) may be used to predict whether human embryos are able to achieve the expanded blastocyst stage on day 5. Eighty-one embryos were cultured using the Geri plus® time-lapse system. Twenty-seven embryos progressing to the expanded blastocyst stage (BL group) were compared with thirty-five embryos showing developmental arrest (AR group) and nineteen reaching the stage of early or not fully expanded blastocyst (nBL group). The analyzed morphokinetic variables were pronuclear appearance (tPNa), pronuclear fading (tPNf), and completion of cleavage to two, three, four, and eight cells (t2, t3, t4, and t8). CCs were analyzed by RT-qPCR for bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15), cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COXII), ATP synthase subunit 6 (MT-ATP6), connexin 43 (Cx43), and heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Embryos of BL group showed a significantly faster kinetic. BMP15, COXII, and MT-ATP6 mRNA expression was significantly higher in CCs of BL group embryos, whereas Cx43 and HO-1 mRNA levels were higher in AR group. Kinetic parameters and gene expression were not significantly different between either the BL and nBL groups or the AR and nBL groups. ROC curves showed that the most predictive cut-offs were t2 < 26.25 for morphokinetics and COXII > 0.3 for gene expression. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that morphokinetic variables and gene expression were both valuable, independent predictors of embryo development to expanded blastocyst. Our results suggest the possibility of developing integrated prediction models for early embryo selection at the cleavage stage.