Introduction
Material and methods
Theoretical framework
Estimation strategy
Data and descriptive statistics
Dependent variable: immigration flows
Explanatory variables
Observations | Mean | SD | Min. | Max. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yearly Inflow | 73,508 | 5.394 | 49.089 | 0 | 3640 |
Destination Controls | |||||
Unemployment rate | 70,688 | 7.464 | 3.237 | 2.558 | 26.117 |
PISA Scorereading | 73,508 | 497.228 | 20.287 | 428 | 547 |
Dyadic Controls | |||||
Ratio GDPo/GDPd | 71,346 | 0.427 | 0.852 | 0.002 | 15.444 |
Stock of high-skilled migrants (2000) | 71,924 | 7707.40 | 33,212.59 | 1 | 508,333 |
Distance | 73,508 | 6812.444 | 4344.516 | 53.532 | 19,586.18 |
Colony | 73,508 | .041 | .198 | 0 | 1 |
Common language | 73,508 | .120 | .325 | 0 | 1 |
Contiguity | 73,508 | .019 | .136 | 0 | 1 |
Both in EU | 73,508 | .061 | .239 | 0 | 1 |
Both in Schengen | 73,508 | .056 | .23 | 0 | 1 |
Supply-side Controls | |||||
Density of physicians per 1000 population | 68,996 | 3.13 | .710 | 1.3 | 5.3 |
Medical graduates per 100,000 population | 72,756 | 10.437 | 3.938 | 3.84 | 24.44 |
Remuneration of physicians (US$ PPP) | 67,680 | 118,588.7 | 58,193.76 | 20,603.21 | 271,125.1 |
Medical technology | 53,580 | 17.703 | 9.743 | 4.89 | 43.87 |
Demand-side Controls | |||||
Public expenditures (US$ /capita) | 73,508 | 3257.057 | 1644.86 | 425.6 | 9832.317 |
Health insurance coverage | 70,124 | 98.528 | 3.909 | 69.8 | 100.2 |
Age dependency ratio | 73,508 | 23.403 | 4.835 | 9.623 | 35.660 |
Hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants | 70,688 | 4.849 | 1.866 | 2.05 | 9.12 |
Results
Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
Destination Controls | |||||
Log Unemployment rate [t-1] | −0.091 (0.24) | − 0.669c (0.18) | − 0.270 (0.22) | − 0.916c (0.18) | −1.119c (0.17) |
Log PISA Scorereading [t-1] | −0.036 (2.34) | − 0.540 (1.97) | − 0.796 (2.20) | −0.901 (1.79) | 4.894b (2.17) |
Dyadic Controls | |||||
Log GDPo/GDPd [t-1] | −0.222 (0.34) | 0.289 (0.34) | −0.037 (0.34) | 0.932c (0.34) | 1.545c (0.35) |
Log Diaspora [2000] | 0.004 (0.01) | 0.004 (0.01) | 0.014 (0.01) | 0.014 (0.01) | 0.034c (0.01) |
Log Distance | −0.691c (0.07) | −0.697c (0.07) | −0.847c (0.06) | −0.864c (0.07) | − 0.635c (0.07) |
Colonial-tie dummy | 0.591c (0.10) | 0.600c (0.09) | 0.598c (0.10) | 0.613c (0.09) | 0.558c (0.11) |
Common language dummy | 2.415c (0.16) | 2.375c (0.18) | 2.227c (0.11) | 2.168c (0.12) | 2.679c (0.11) |
Contiguity dummy | −0.205b (0.09) | −0.265c (0.09) | −0.266c (0.09) | − 0.365c (0.08) | − 0.135 (0.13) |
Both in EU | 0.097 (0.10) | 0.205a (0.12) | 0.028 (0.10) | 0.131 (0.11) | 0.624c (0.13) |
Both in Schengen | 0.712c (0.11) | 0.645c (0.12) | 0.750c (0.09) | 0.687c (0.10) | 0.276b (0.14) |
Supply factors | |||||
Log Remuneration of physicians [t-1] | 1.651a (0.87) | 1.998b (0.91) | 2.107b (0.85) | ||
Log Density Physicians per 1000 population [t-1] | −2.810c (0.70) | −3.276c (0.69) | −1.808c (0.64) | ||
Log Medical Graduates per 100,000 population [t-1] | −0.143 (0.35) | 0.234 (0.34) | 0.919c (0.30) | ||
Log Medical Technology [t-1] | 1.033c (0.40) | ||||
Demand factors | |||||
Log public health expenditures [t-1] | −0.572 (0.63) | 0.153 (0.64) | 0.168 (0.51) | ||
Log health insurance coverage [t-1] | −3.105b (1.46) | −5.232c (1.47) | −3.337b (1.68) | ||
Log Age dependency ratio, old [t-1] | 4.853c (1.10) | 2.891c (0.98) | 4.684c (1.01) | ||
Log Hospital beds [t-1] | −0.410 (0.45) | 0.803a (0.43) | 1.397c (0.46) | ||
Destination FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Origin-time FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Number of clusters (destination*time) | 337 | 304 | 303 | 272 | 201 |
Observations | 45,538 | 40,912 | 40,709 | 36,398 | 25,466 |
R-sqr | 0.671 | 0.716 | 0.717 | 0.771 | 0.867 |
Discussion
Main results
Heterogeneity analysis
Sending regions / time period | Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
Africa | Asia | Central and Eastern European countries | Before Economic crisis 2000–2006 | During Economic crisis 2007–2012 | |
Destination Controls | |||||
Log Unemployment rate [t-1] | −1.627b (0.69) | −2.040c (0.18) | −1.221c (0.27) | −0.258 (0.65) | −2.074c (0.39) |
Log PISA Scorereading [t-1] | −3.543 (5.67) | 15.252c (4.54) | 9.973c (3.62) | 7.349 (10.81) | −2.300 (7.15) |
Dyadic Controls | |||||
Log GDPo/GDPd [t-1] | 1.372 (1.17) | 0.200 (0.36) | 2.204c (0.69) | 0.090 (0.63) | 2.652b (1.27) |
Log Diaspora [2000] | −0.533c (0.08) | 0.573c (0.19) | 0.353c (0.06) | 0.457c (0.11) | 0.461c (0.11) |
Log Distance | −0.880c (0.25) | 0.026 (0.32) | −0.979c (0.20) | − 0.864c (0.12) | −0.629c (0.12) |
Colonial-tie dummy | 2.478c (0.29) | 1.360c (0.11) | −1.345c (0.21) | 0.912c (0.17) | 0.463b (0.18) |
Common language dummy | 1.202c (0.29) | 0.826c (0.24) | – | 2.082c (0.13) | 2.633c (0.16) |
Contiguity dummy | 0.237 (0.56) | 6.143c (0.91) | 1.322c (0.23) | 0.128 (0.26) | −0.178 (0.17) |
Both in EU | – | – | 0.145 (0.18) | 0.256 (0.21) | 0.551c (0.18) |
Both in Schengen | – | – | 0.028 (0.17) | 1.193c (0.23) | 0.475b (0.21) |
Supply factors | |||||
Log Remuneration of physicians [t-1] | 9.001c (3.15) | 4.789c (1.39) | −0.558 (1.40) | 1.050 (1.88) | 6.832a (3.81) |
Log Density Physicians per 1000 population [t-1] | −6.829c (1.92) | −3.253c (1.18) | −0.016 (1.11) | 0.256 (1.36) | −6.352b (2.73) |
Log Medical Graduates per 100,000 population [t-1] | 1.078 (0.84) | −0.222 (0.50) | 1.580c (0.46) | 0.398 (0.41) | 2.621c (0.96) |
Log Medical Technology [t-1] | 4.150c (1.08) | −0.220 (0.55) | 1.784c (0.53) | 1.012 (0.65) | 3.071c (0.78) |
Demand factors | |||||
Log public health expenditures [t-1] | −1.844a (1.00) | −0.142 (0.54) | 0.720 (0.73) | 1.026 (1.30) | −3.593a (2.06) |
Log health insurance coverage [t-1] | −6.850a (4.14) | −10.029c (1.79) | 2.184 (4.06) | −33.308 (47.68) | 9.192 (11.07) |
Log Age dependency ratio, old [t-1] | −21.085c (6.81) | −0.458 (3.37) | 4.225c (1.40) | 8.003b (3.38) | −16.769c (5.74) |
Log Hospital beds [t-1] | −4.016c (1.24) | −0.098 (0.38) | 2.829c (0.97) | −3.089 (2.03) | 1.227 (1.20) |
Destination FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Origin-time FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Number of clusters (destination*time) | 168 | 153 | 196 | 54 | 78 |
Observations | 4193 | 4532 | 2495 | 6549 | 9726 |
R-sqr | 0.974 | 0.978 | 0.742 | 0.955 | 0.787 |
Robustness
Pseudo - Poisson Maximum Likelihood | ||
---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | |
2004–2016 | 6-year period (2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) | |
Destination controls | ||
Log Unemployment rate [t-1] | −1.278c (0.18) | −0.915c (0.26) |
Log PISA Scorereading [t-1] | 4.359a (2.43) | 4.903 (4.39) |
Dyadic Controls | ||
Log GDPo/GDPd [t-1] | 1.796c (0.41) | 1.264c (0.47) |
Log Diaspora [2000] | 0.033c (0.01) | 0.032 (0.02) |
Log Distance | −0.645c (0.07) | −0.599c (0.12) |
Colonial-tie dummy | 0.439c (0.10) | 0.557c (0.18) |
Common language dummy | 2.779c (0.11) | 2.641c (0.17) |
Contiguity dummy | −0.194 (0.13) | −0.188 (0.20) |
Both in EU | 0.578c (0.13) | 0.753c (0.21) |
Both in Schengen | 0.247a (0.14) | 0.319 (0.23) |
Supply factors | ||
Log Remuneration of physicians [t-1] | 2.812c (0.83) | 1.393 (1.10) |
Log Density Physicians per 1000 population [t-1] | −2.420c (0.70) | −2.038c (0.76) |
Log Medical Graduates per 100,000 population [t-1] | 1.433c (0.43) | 0.994a (0.58) |
Log Medical Technology [t-1] | 0.991b (0.44) | 1.057a (0.63) |
Demand factors | ||
Log public health expenditures [t-1] | 0.209 (0.51) | 0.226 (1.30) |
Log health insurance coverage [t-1] | −3.114a (1.84) | −3.835 (2.37) |
Log Age dependency ratio [t-1] | 2.146a (1.14) | 5.279c (1.75) |
Log Hospital beds [t-1] | 1.304c (0.47) | 1.446a (0.85) |
Destination FE | YES | YES |
Origin-time FE | YES | YES |
Number of clusters (destination*time) | 172 | 74 |
Observations | 22,232 | 9174 |
R-sqr | 0.827 | 0.846 |