Background
Methods
Data source and participants
Primary outcome: Type 2 diabetes onset
Risk factors for Type 2 diabetes onset
Additional covariates
Statistical analysis
Results
Women (n = 20,014) | Men (n = 16,147) | All (N = 36,161) | |
---|---|---|---|
Demographic factors | |||
Age (mean, SD) | 46.8 (13.7) | 47.3 (13.1) | 47.0 (13.4) |
20–34 | 22.1% | 19.5% | 20.9% |
35–44 | 24.3% | 24.2% | 24.3% |
45–54 | 26.7% | 27.9% | 26.7% |
55–64 | 17.0% | 17.7% | 17.0% |
≥ 65 | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.1% |
Education (any post-secondary) | 33.2% | 30.1% | 31.8% |
Metabolic factors | |||
Central obesitya | 47.9% | 36.9% | 42.9% |
Hypertensionb | 46.2% | 66.5% | 55.3% |
Triglycerides (high) | 28.5% | 48.5% | 37.4% |
HDL cholesterol (low) | 24.9% | 29.1% | 26.8% |
Plasma glucose (high) | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
Metabolic syndrome present | 20.2% | 23.1% | 21.5% |
Behavioural factors | |||
Smoking (packyears, mean) | 12.8 (10.2) | 17.2 (13.6) | 14.9 (12.1) |
Former smoking (daily) | 24.2% | 33.5% | 28.4% |
Current smoking (daily) | 27.9% | 24.5% | 26.4% |
Physical inactivityc | 54.3% | 48.2% | 51.5% |
Psychological factors | |||
Depression only | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
Anxiety only | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% |
Concurrent dep–anx | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
All (dep or anx) | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% |
Women (n = 20,014) | Men (n = 16,147) | All (n = 36,161) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RR | 95% CI | RR | 95% CI | RR | 95% CI | |
Demographic factors | ||||||
Age | ||||||
20–34 | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
35–44 | 2.42 | 1.57, 3.74 | 2.97 | 1.90, 4.63 | 2.68 | 1.97, 3.65 |
45–54 | 3.53 | 2.33, 5.36 | 4.45 | 2.90, 6.83 | 3.82 | 2.84, 5.14 |
55–64 | 4.23 | 2.76, 6.48 | 5.68 | 3.68, 8.77 | 4.72 | 3.50, 6.37 |
≥ 65 | 2.97 | 1.88, 4.70 | 5.41 | 3.43, 8.52 | 3.88 | 2.83, 5.32 |
Education (any post-secondary) | 1.20 | 0.96, 1.50 | 1.19 | 1.00, 1.44 | 1.20 | 1.04, 1.38 |
Metabolic factors | ||||||
Central obesitya | 4.77 | 3.64, 6.25 | 3.31 | 2.75, 3.99 | 3.59 | 3.08, 4.18 |
Hypertensionb | 1.67 | 1.37, 2.04 | 1.49 | 1.22, 1.81 | 1.54 | 1.34, 1.77 |
Triglycerides | 1.98 | 1.63, 2.41 | 1.79 | 1.47, 2.19 | 1.77 | 1.55, 2.03 |
HDL cholesterol | 2.13 | 1.78, 2.54 | 1.84 | 1.57, 2.16 | 1.86 | 1.66, 2.10 |
Plasma glucose | 3.68 | 2.40, 4.03 | 5.58 | 3.31, 6.90 | 4.05 | 3.55, 4.62 |
Behavioural factors | ||||||
Smoking | ||||||
Never | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
Former (daily) | 0.87 | 0.71, 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.18, 1.72 | 1.13 | 0.99, 1.29 |
Current (daily) | 0.99 | 0.82, 1.22 | 1.50 | 1.22, 1.85 | 1.21 | 1.05, 1.39 |
Physical inactivityc | 1.05 | 0.88, 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.18, 1.61 | 1.23 | 1.08, 1.36 |
Psychological factors | ||||||
Depression only | 1.14 | 0.63, 2.08 | 1.94 | 1.34, 2.83 | 1.37 | 1.01, 1.87 |
Anxiety only | 1.24 | 0.92, 1.68 | 1.16 | 0.62, 2.16 | 1.16 | 0.76, 1.80 |
Concurrent Dep–anx | 0.93 | 0.56, 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.13, 2.00 | 1.36 | 1.10, 1.68 |
Behaviourala | MetSynb | Depression | Anxiety | Concurrent dep–anx | # exposed | Exposure prevalence (%) | Diabetes cases | RR (95% CI) | PAF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7602 | 21.02 | 123 | 1.00 | |
0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 803 | 2.22 | 10 | 0.93 (0.49, 1.76) | – |
0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1461 | 4.04 | 13 | 0.56 (0.32, 0.98) | – |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1319 | 3.65 | 25 | 1.31 (0.85, 2.00) | – |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11,309 | 31.27 | 218 | 1.13 (0.91, 1.41) | – |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1256 | 3.47 | 24 | 1.30 (0.85, 2.00) | – |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2447 | 6.77 | 52 | 1.26 (0.91, 1.73) | – |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2435 | 6.73 | 56 | 1.49 (1.09, 2.04) | 1.4 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1561 | 4.32 | 145 | 4.42 (3.49, 5.60) | 8.4 |
0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 0.37 | 15 | 6.87 (4.16, 11.35) | 1.0 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 0.77 | 30 | 4.88 (3.17, 7.53) | 1.8 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 0.71 | 22 | 5.46 (3.74, 7.97) | 1.4 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3493 | 9.66 | 376 | 5.26 (4.30, 6.42) | 22.9 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 342 | 0.95 | 39 | 6.13 (4.36, 8.62) | 2.5 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 766 | 2.12 | 81 | 5.29 (4.03, 6.93) | 4.9 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 699 | 1.93 | 95 | 7.47 (5.79, 9.64) | 6.2 |
Total | 36,161 | 100 | 1324 | 50.5 |