The B‑type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level on discharge of patients hospitalized with decompensated heart failure (HF) is widely considered as the “baseline” value, and treatment should be targeted to maintain this level. The prognostic value of an increase in BNP level from discharge to the 1‑month follow-up in predicting rehospitalization has not been previously explored.

The Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness (ESCAPE) trial data were utilized to determine whether an increase in BNP level from discharge to the 1‑month follow-up is associated with a higher risk of rehospitalization. The study endpoints were all-cause rehospitalization up to 6 months following randomization.

Among 44 patients (mean age, 56 years, 71% men) who had their BNP levels checked on discharge and at the 1‑month follow-up, the average BNP level on discharge of the whole cohort was 467 pg/ml, which increased to 919 pg/ml at 1 month (p = 0.001). The median and interquartile range of the magnitude of rise in BNP level from discharge to 1‑month follow-up was higher in rehospitalized compared with non-rehospitalized patients (329 [11, 956] vs. 44 [−90, 316] pg/ml, p = 0.039, in both groups, respectively). Receiver operator characteristic curves showed that the magnitude of the rise in BNP from discharge to the 1‑month follow-up had an area under the curve of 0.686 (p = 0.0255) in predicting all-cause rehospitalization. Rehospitalized and non-rehospitalized patients had similar degree of clinical congestion and comparable BNP level on hospital discharge.

The magnitude of the rise in BNP level from discharge to the 1‑month follow-up is a useful prognostic factor that predicts rehospitalization in patients with HF.