Background
Methods
Model structure
Data inputs
Variable | Inputs (Odds) | Notable assumptions and explanations | Lower range | Upper range | Source population | References | |
Inputs influencing health | |||||||
Child Specific | |||||||
Odds ever of good academic achievement (basic academic proficiency) | 1.35 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence (4th–12th grade) of 57.5% basic academic achievement | 0.7 | 2.0 | National 4th grade black public school students | [33] | |
Odds ever of obesity as a child (BMI at or above 95%) | 0.146 | Assumed a cumulative incidence of 23.8% by age 10 (5th grade) based on a point prevalence of 23.8% (K-5th grade) | 0.09 | 0.3 | NYC public elementary school students | [34] | |
Odds ever of low self-regulation | 0.33 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a period prevalence of 25% | 0.15 | 0.4 | High risk children followed infancy through grade 3 | ||
Odds ever that a child will behavior problems | 0.275 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a period prevalence of 21.6% | 0.14 | 0.4 | Kindergarten or first grade students given any early poverty | [29] | |
Odds of graduating from high school | 2.125 | One-time event, estimated from incidence of 68% | 1.59 | 2.66 | Low-income New York state high school students | [35] | |
Odds of any drug abuse disorder | 0.13 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 11.4% | 0.11 | 0.15 | Nationally representative face-to-face survey of adolescents aged 13 to 18 years in the continental United States. | [50] | |
Odds ever of type 2 diabetes as a child | 0.001 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 1.05 per 1000 | 0 | 0.002 | Black children aged 0–19 with type 2 diabetes | [37] | |
Odds ever of interacting with the judiciary system as a child (likelihood of one violent crime arrest) | 0.099 | Fixed prevalence throughout childhood based on a point prevalence of 9% | 0.074 | 0.124 | Low-income urban Baltimore adolescents | [24] | |
Odds ratio good academic achievement given child received ParentCorps | 1.520 | 1.000 | 2.430 | ParentCorps | [23] | ||
Odds ratio good academic achievement given child has behavior problems | 0.229 | 0.084 | 0.621 | ParentCorps | [23] | ||
Odds Ratio child becomes obese given they have low self-regulation in pre-k | 3.846 | 1.36 | 4.50 | ParentCorps | [4] | ||
Odds Ratio child becomes obese given they have low self-regulation in pre-k and received ParentCorps | 0.260 | 0.080 | 0.865 | ParentCorps | [4] | ||
Odds Ratio child becomes obese given that they do not have low self-regulation and received ParentCorps | 1.000 | 0.82 | 1.0 | ParentCorps | [4] | ||
Odds Ratio child develops behavior problems given they received ParentCorps | 0.590 | 0.41 | 0.85 | ParentCorps | |||
Odds Ratio child develops behavior problems given low self-regulation | 3.800 | 2.0 | 5.5 | Urban children from Arizona aged 55–97 months | |||
Odds Ratio child graduates from high school given they have good academic achievement | 1.335 | 1.0 | 4.0 | Children from Tennessee’s Project STAR evaluating graduation among children in K-3 grade (55.8% free lunch)hn | [22] | ||
Odds Ratio child graduates from high school given they abuse drugs | 0.699 | 0.584 | 0.826 | US national sample adults over 18 surveying back on their childhood | [19] | ||
Odds Ratio child graduates from high school given they have behavior problems | 0.180 | 0.1 | 1.0 | Adolescents ages 15–20 with serious emotional disturbance, 38.2% low income, 39.5% urban | [25] | ||
Odds Ratio child abuses drugs given they have behavior problems | 3.800 | 1.0 | 5.0 | New Zealand urban children | [51] | ||
Odds Ratio child with obesity develops diabetes | 5.100 | 1.51 | 17.0 | Children ages 4–19 in rural Canada | [26] | ||
Odds Ratio child interacts with judiciary system given they abuse drugs | 5.700 | 2.30 | 15.05 | Study among urban New Zealand adolescents with alcohol misuse and juvenile offenses | [51] | ||
Odds Ratio child interacts with judiciary system given they have behavior problems | 2.925 | 1.300 | 6.375 | Study among New Zealand males with childhood onset versus adolescent onset antisocial behavior | [31] | ||
Adult Specific | |||||||
Odds of developing obesity per yr. (BMI > 30) | Age 18–39 | 0.003 | Constant incidence rate, based on a point prevalence of 30% for ages 20–39; 39.5% for ages 40–59; and 35.4% for age > 60; assumed to be cumulative incidence for each age range. | 0 | 0.064 | The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2008, a representative sample of the US population with measured heights and weights on 3281 children and adolescents (2 through 19 years of age) and 719 infants and toddlers (birth to 2 years of age). | [30] |
Age 40–59 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.01 | ||||
Age > 60 | −0.002 | 0 | 0.005 | ||||
Odds of abusing drugs as an adult per yr. (any alcohol use/dependence) | 0.007 | Constant incidence rate estimated based on lifetime cumulative incidence of 26.6% | 0.002 | 0.013 | Survey of psychiatric disorders among persons aged 15 to 54 years in the US noninstitutionalized civilian population | [52] | |
Odds of developing diabetes as an adult per yr | 0.0069 | Constant incidence rate assumed based on cumulative incidence of 6.9 per 1000 (age 18–79) | 0.006 | 0.008 | CDC data on incidence of diagnosed diabetes among people aged 18–79 | [53] | |
Odds of employment | 12.7 | Fixed prevalence based on a point prevalence of 92.7%; assumed fixed effect throughout adulthood (i.e., if employed stay employed and if unemployed stay unemployed from yr. to yr) | 9.52 | 15.87 | National unemployment rate from August 2013 | [54] | |
Odds Ratio adult with obesity develops diabetes | 7.370 | 6.39 | 8.50 | Random digit phone survey of US adults aged 18 yrs. or older participating in Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2001 | [32] | ||
Odds of newly interacting with the judiciary system as an adult per yr. (likelihood to ever go to prison) | 0.002 | Constant incidence rate assumed, based on lifetime cumulative incidence of 4.5% | 0 | 0.005 | Bureau of Justice data on lifetime likelihood of going to prison | [55] | |
Odds of new psychiatric disorders as an adult per yr. (diagnosis of any mood disorder) | 0.007 | Constant incidence rate within age groups estimated based on lifetime prevalence of mood disorder starting at age 18. | 0.005 | 0.009 | Survey of US residents aged 18 yrs. and older in National Comorbidity Survey Replication 2001–2003 | [56] | |
Odds of cardiovascular disease as an adult, per yr | Age 18–44 | 0.004 | Constant incidence rate within each decade based on annual incidence rate | 0.002 | 0.006 | NHLBI morbidity & mortality chart book on cardiovascular, lung and blood diseases | [16] |
Age 45–54 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.008 | ||||
Age 55–64 | 0.015 | 0.010 | 0.022 | ||||
Age 65–74 | 0.028 | 0.020 | 0.035 | ||||
Age 75–84 | 0.052 | 0.045 | 0.060 | ||||
Age 85–94 | 0.075 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||||
Odds Ratio of cardiovascular disease given that an adult has diabetes | 2.300 | Cardiovascular disease as the major health sequelae impacting life expectancy and quality of life calculated based on annual incidence rate of CVD in diabetes | 1.5 | 3.5 | Framingham study on cardiovascular disease and diabetes | [23] | |
Odds Ratio of cardiovascular disease given that an adult has obesity | 2.300 | Assume to be the same as risk of CVD in patients with diabetes | 1.5 | 3.5 | Framingham study on cardiovascular disease and diabetes | [23] | |
Odds Ratio of any psychiatric disorder given drug abuse | 4.5 | Any psychiatric disorder as the most significant health sequelae of drug abuse impacting life expectancy and quality of life; calculated based on lifetime co-occurrence of any mood disorder (depression, dysthymia mania) given alcohol abuse | 3.36 | 7.38 | NIMH interview of comorbid alcohol, other drug and mental health disorders; national survey of drug use and health | ||
Odds Ratio adult interacts with judiciary system given they abuse drugs | 4.14 | 1.2 | 5.5 | Prospective study of US criminal offenders substance use drug treatment and crime | [60] | ||
Odds Ratio adult interacts with judiciary system given interacting with the judiciary system in the last yr | 227 | Back calculated using the odds of interaction with judiciary within 3 years of release from prison | 50 | 250 | Prospective study of US criminal offenders’recidivism | [61] | |
Odds Ratio of employment given graduated high school | 1.88 | 1.5 | 3.0 | Bureau of labors statistics report of college enrollment and work activity of 2015 US high school graduates | [62] | ||
Odds Ratio of employment given interacting with the judiciary system in the last yr | 0.029 | 0.005 | 0.1 | Study of employment among adults released from NYC jails | [63] | ||
Odds Ratio of using drugs given a history of abusing drugs in the last yr | 47.62 | 35 | 571 | Study of recovery from alcohol dependence among US adults | [64] | ||
Odds Ratio of obesity given obese in the last yr | 331 | Back-calculated using Odds of 0.007 of non-persistence of obesity in adults with obesity. Assumed constant incidence rate, based on cumulative incidence risk of 14% over 21 year follow up (from age 17 to 38) and fixed prevalence after age 38. | National longitudinal survey of US youths | ||||
Inputs influencing costs | |||||||
Inputs ($) | Cost Unit | Lower range ($) | Upper range ($) | References | |||
Annual drug abuse treatment cost | $1000 | per person per year | 500 | 1500 | [67] | ||
Annual drug abuse complication cost | $21,483 | per person per year | 10,742 | 32,225 | [42] | ||
Annual diabetes treatment cost | $9975 | per person per year | 4988 | 14,963 | [41] | ||
Annual diabetes complication cost | $1575 | per person per year | 788 | 2363 | [40] | ||
Annual obesity treatment cost | $0 | per person per year | 0 | 0 | [68] | ||
Annual obesity complication cost | $732 | per person per year | 366 | 1098 | [43] | ||
Annual judiciary system cost of incarceration | $28,893 | per person per year | 14,447 | 43,340 | [44] | ||
Annual unemployment opportunity cost | $33,160 | per person per year | 16,580 | 49,740 | [45] | ||
ParentCorps ongoing annual costs per child | $500 | per child | N/A | N/A | |||
ParentCorps capacity building costs per school | $100,000 | per school | N/A | N/A | |||
Inputs influencing utilities | |||||||
Inputs (Utility) | References | ||||||
Utility of having diabetes | 0.690 | [69] | |||||
Utility of having complications of diabetes | 0.350 | [69] | |||||
Utility of drug abuse | 0.670 | [70] | |||||
Utility of having complications of drug abuse | 0.600 | [70] | |||||
Utility of being obese | 0.710 | [71] | |||||
Utility of having complications of obesity | 0.500 | [71] | |||||
Utility of being in prison | 0.725 | [72] |