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01.12.2014 | Research | Ausgabe 6/2014 Open Access

Critical Care 6/2014

Predicting cardiovascular intensive care unit readmission after cardiac surgery: derivation and validation of the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) cardiovascular intensive care unit clinical prediction model from a registry cohort of 10,799 surgical cases

Zeitschrift:
Critical Care > Ausgabe 6/2014
Autoren:
Sean van Diepen, Michelle M Graham, Jayan Nagendran, Colleen M Norris
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​s13054-014-0651-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Authors’ contributions

SVD was involved in the conception and design, data interpretation, and drafting of the manuscript. MMG was involved in the conception and design, data interpretation, and critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content. JN was involved in conception and design, data interpretation, and critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content. CMN was involved in the conception and design, statistical analysis, data interpretation, and drafting of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Abstract

Introduction

In medical and surgical intensive care units, clinical risk prediction models for readmission have been developed; however, studies reporting the risks for cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) readmission have been methodologically limited by small numbers of outcomes, unreported measures of calibration or discrimination, or a lack of information spanning the entire perioperative period. The purpose of this study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction model for CVICU readmission in cardiac surgical patients.

Methods

A total of 10,799 patients more than or equal to 18 years in the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) registry who underwent cardiac surgery (coronary artery bypass or valvular surgery) between 2004 and 2012 and were discharged alive from the first CVICU admission were included. The full cohort was used to derive the clinical prediction model and the model was internally validated with bootstrapping. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using the AUC c index and the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, respectively.

Results

A total of 479 (4.4%) patients required CVICU readmission. The mean CVICU length of stay (19.9 versus 3.3 days, P <0.001) and in-hospital mortality (14.4% versus 2.2%, P <0.001) were higher among patients readmitted to the CVICU. In the derivation cohort, a total of three preoperative (age ≥70, ejection fraction, chronic lung disease), two intraoperative (single valve repair or replacement plus non-CABG surgery, multivalve repair or replacement), and seven postoperative variables (cardiac arrest, pneumonia, pleural effusion, deep sternal wound infection, leg graft harvest site infection, gastrointestinal bleed, neurologic complications) were independently associated with CVICU readmission. The clinical prediction model had robust discrimination and calibration in the derivation cohort (AUC c index = 0.799; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.192). The validation point estimates and confidence intervals were similar to derivation model.

Conclusions

In a large population-based dataset incorporating a comprehensive set of perioperative variables, we have derived a clinical prediction model with excellent discrimination and calibration. This model identifies opportunities for targeted therapeutic interventions aimed at reducing CVICU readmissions in high-risk patients.
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